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00:00I was a BBC weatherman for over 40 years.
00:02There's been a lot of snow in eastern parts of the country overnight and still quite a lot to come.
00:09And in October 1987, I drove a pillar box red Austin Maestro.
00:18We gave forecasts in Fahrenheit as well as Celsius.
00:21I've got nothing but bad news. In fact, we've got, if anything, trouble with the wind today, as you might say.
00:26And then, of course, there was this.
00:30Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard that there was a hurricane on the way.
00:34Well, if you're watching, don't worry, there isn't, there isn't, there isn't.
00:42I've become forever linked with what followed.
00:45The worst storms for hundreds of years hit the south of England early this morning,
00:49killing a dozen people and bringing the whole southeast to a halt.
00:53Gales of over 100 miles an hour smashed buildings and caused millions of pounds' worth of damage.
00:59There was no warning. The weathermen were caught with their forecast down.
01:05In fact, 18 people lost their lives in what was the biggest storm to hit Britain since 1703.
01:12There was a wall of cloud approaching from the west.
01:17We could actually see it coming towards us.
01:19The waves were going over the minibuses.
01:21It was absolutely terrifying.
01:23It still remains the most talked-about weather event in a generation.
01:29This is a photograph showing what looks like somebody has emptied a bottle of matches.
01:35It took weeks to clear it all up.
01:37For the past 30 years or two, I've taken the flak for getting this forecast wrong.
01:46So, I'm on a myth-busting mission to try and set the record straight.
01:50If you can't forecast the worst storms for several centuries, three hours before they happen, what are you doing?
01:56Hurricanes are completely different weather systems. They don't occur here in the UK.
02:01The great storm's well known. The story's been told. You can't go back and explain that the message did not occur across the night before.
02:07Thank you. Well, not too pretty a picture, as a matter of fact. There's been a lot of snow in eastern parts of the country overnight.
02:20When I started at the BBC, things were very different.
02:24There were no computer graphics and no weather satellites.
02:27Fairly thundery with some... Oh, dearly. Bloody... Let's do it again.
02:30Now, lurking behind me, there is another area of low pressure, and it's that that's going to trouble things...
02:35By 1987, the dodgy suits were a thing of the past,
02:38and some basic satellite imagery was giving us a taste of the future.
02:43Pretty disorganised at the moment, but when I ran this...
02:45Back then, we relied mainly on weather balloons and ships out in the Atlantic
02:49to tell us what was heading our way.
02:53Here comes the rain again...
02:56Which leads me on to myth number one...
02:59That we had no idea any sort of storm was coming.
03:05The truth is, we did know stormy weather was out there, but didn't think it was coming our way.
03:13Even a week before, there were signs of bad weather in the Atlantic.
03:17It was so bad that the shipping we normally relied on for weather observations had cleared out of the area,
03:23meaning that we had even less data coming in.
03:26The data we did have was fed into the Met Office computer,
03:34and the models run a few days before the storm showed it tracking east across France.
03:39We were concerned about yet more rain after recent floods,
03:45but by Thursday morning, there were only very light winds over most of the UK.
03:51And no sign that the depression brewing in the Bay of Biscay would actually come our way.
03:56Certainly nothing to stop Worthing High School's class of 87 from going to Dorset on a geography field trip.
04:09The waves have actually managed to cut through the limestone and form this very, very small hole.
04:15Aina Stephens was head of geography and spotted something coming towards the south coast
04:21well before us experts at the Met Office.
04:23Well, we were actually at the southern end of Chessil Bank, where it joins Portland,
04:29and we were surveying the beach, and the sky was just incredible.
04:38Paul Kashmirak was also a Kenai geography teacher and filmed this footage.
04:43The air was completely different to anything I've experienced.
04:47It was so full of moisture. It was warm and thick.
04:52There was a wall of cloud approaching from the west.
04:57We could actually see it coming towards us, but we didn't know.
05:01We didn't know what was going to happen that night.
05:03We had no idea at all.
05:05We knew it was windy because as the kids were doing their geography field work,
05:10they were getting knocked over.
05:11So, while the geography class was discussing longshore drift,
05:17I was giving my fateful forecast.
05:20Just after the lunchtime news.
05:22Good afternoon to you.
05:23Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard that there was a hurricane on the way.
05:27Well, if you're watching, don't worry, there isn't.
05:29Time to bust myth number two.
05:31That I didn't forecast high winds.
05:35But having said that, actually, the weather will become very windy.
05:38But most of the strong winds, incidentally, will be down over Spain and across into France as well.
05:43But there's a vicious-looking area of low pressure on our doorstep, nevertheless, around about the Brittany area.
05:47There we go.
05:48A vicious-looking area of low pressure.
05:50Actually, bringing, if nothing else, a lot of rain with it.
05:53But what I didn't know was that the storm was changing direction and heading straight for Dorset.
05:59As the waves come through the limestone...
06:02After a very windy afternoon on Chesil Beach, the class of 87 went back to their caravan site.
06:08We watched the news, we watched the weather.
06:12It seemed it was going to be a windy night, but nothing too extreme.
06:18At the weather forecast the geography teachers watched wasn't me at all.
06:22Bill Charles was on duty that evening, so Bango's myth number three.
06:29And his forecast was no better than mine.
06:31Well, that's what the situation was like earlier on this evening.
06:34It's associated with this quite deep low pressure area.
06:37And a few days ago, we thought it would be coming a little bit further west,
06:41bringing the strong winds right across the country.
06:43But now, it looks as though most of those strong winds will stay away,
06:47although it's still going to be very breezy up through the Channel
06:50and on the eastern side of the country.
06:54Breezy up the Channel?
06:56Worthing's class of 87 will soon learn both their forecasts were way off the mark.
07:04I've come along the coast of Worthing Beach to meet up with the teachers.
07:07And some of their now grown-up pupils.
07:10Yeah, well, it turned out to be a really windy night, didn't it?
07:13Oh, yes.
07:14Wild.
07:15It was a crazy night.
07:17As soon as the caravan started to move off their supports,
07:21we thought, we can't risk that.
07:22The caravan I was in, literally, leapt up in the air and started to roll down the hill.
07:29Well, before it got very far, I was out the door.
07:31Yeah.
07:32And I was knocking on everybody's caravan door.
07:36We put 72 kids into two 15-seat minibuses and drove them down the bottom of the hill.
07:42Sarah, I gather you knew about it before I did,
07:45because you were up and chatting away with your friends when you should have been in bed.
07:50We realised it was getting windy.
07:52We looked out the window of the caravan we were staying in,
07:55and we actually saw one of the caravans go over.
07:58And she ran, I think, to get you teachers.
08:00You probably knew about it already.
08:02And I ran down to that caravan and looked inside, and it was pitch black.
08:05And I just remember that feeling of, oh, my God, is there anybody in there?
08:09Karen, I believe you were a pupil at the time.
08:11Yes.
08:11What do you remember?
08:12What were your experiences?
08:13Well, I was 15, and we were all in the minibuses, and we were very squashed in.
08:17And there was lots of debris flying around.
08:19And actually, off one of the roofs, a piece of corrugated roof came off
08:24and hit the side of the minibus that we were in.
08:27And we all jumped out of our skin.
08:29It was absolutely terrifying.
08:30Martin, what do you remember of the evening and night?
08:33One bit I do remember is when we were being evacuated.
08:36We had to drive along the coastal front, and the waves were going over the minibuses.
08:41And the teacher that was driving my minibus, she was like,
08:43I can't see the other minibus.
08:44I said, just floor it.
08:45Just go through it.
08:50By 3 a.m. on Friday the 16th, the storm had cut a swathe through Dorset,
08:55Hampshire, and the Isle of Wight, then hit London and the southeast.
08:59The worst of the storm tracked through Essex and Norfolk,
09:04and by mid-morning it was heading out into the North Sea.
09:08Across much of the south and east of England,
09:11people were waking up to entirely new landscapes.
09:13Back in Swanage, the field trip survivors were sifting through what was left of the caravans
09:28for their belongings.
09:41My maestro is taking me along the easterly route of that storm.
09:45An easy trip now, but almost unthinkable 30 years ago,
09:49with 15 million trees uprooted overnight,
09:52and the south at a standstill.
09:59Next stop, Wakehurst in West Sussex.
10:02Kew's country estate, now home to the Millennium Seed Bank.
10:05Dave Marchand has lived and worked here all his life.
10:11He woke up to a scene of devastation.
10:13How many trees do you think you lost?
10:15Roughly 20,000.
10:1620,000?
10:17Yeah, 20,000.
10:18The garden out there, you can see across there, behind that, Van Antonia,
10:22there was nothing there, or there was one thing there.
10:24There was one sycamore tree left.
10:26Everything else was flat.
10:27Dave and his team got busy with their chainsaws.
10:35You were acting as a part of the emergency services, really.
10:38Yeah, it was quite interesting.
10:40Every time we thought we'd got something cleared,
10:42we'd pass it on to the police, and then another one would come up,
10:45and they brought some troops in in helicopters to try and help people.
10:49It took weeks to clear it all up.
10:53The formal gardens of this 16th-century manor house
10:56created over hundreds of years
10:58were wiped out in a few hours.
11:04Well, I believe, in fact, good has come out of it.
11:07Yeah, it was ironic, really,
11:10because trees that we wouldn't have dared take down blew down,
11:14and it gave us such wonderful opportunities
11:16to open up new vistas and put in new plantings.
11:2230 years on, and even in a downpour,
11:25the gardens are looking pretty splendid.
11:32Still following the track of the storm,
11:34I'm now heading to a small town in Kent,
11:37where losing their trees didn't go down quite so well.
11:41I'm here to meet the people of Sevenoaks,
11:43who remember that infamous night only too well.
11:49Hello, Morris.
11:51Former mayor, Morris Short, was a councillor 30 years ago,
11:54and on the night of the great storm,
11:56he raced here,
11:57to the site of the symbolic Sevenoak trees of Sevenoaks,
12:01and found six had been uprooted.
12:04And then we got up here,
12:05and of course,
12:07the sign of devastation.
12:08So you've actually got a paper of the time.
12:10So this is the paper of the day,
12:12a few days later.
12:13The Sevenoaks high corn.
12:14Amazing, isn't it?
12:15Yeah.
12:15I gather one survived the storm.
12:17One survived is in the corner,
12:19over there.
12:20Obviously the biggest one,
12:21I suppose, at the moment.
12:23So we're now eight oaks.
12:25We're now eight oaks?
12:26Yes, we're eight oaks now.
12:27Right.
12:29The seven new oaks were planted by local schoolchildren.
12:34And they're thriving.
12:36The lone survivor may make them eight oaks,
12:39but after eight centuries,
12:40there are no plans to change the town's name.
12:43The trees seem to be doing quite well at the moment.
12:46I've got an awful lot of stick at the time
12:48from the people of Sevenoaks.
12:50But I think with a bit of luck,
12:51they've forgiven me by now.
12:56Back then,
12:57Bob Ogley was the editor of the Sevenoaks Chronicle.
13:01He wanted to hire a plane
13:02to capture this moment in history on camera.
13:08My bosses told me not to.
13:11They said we can't afford it.
13:13So I paid for the aeroplane myself,
13:16thinking I'd get the money back from them.
13:18But I never did.
13:20And he managed to get above Ken?
13:22Yeah, we flew from Biggan Hill.
13:27Bob persuaded a local pilot
13:29to take him up in the only serviceable plane.
13:31This is a photograph showing what looks like somebody
13:38has emptied a bottle of matches.
13:41Amazing.
13:41Just matchsticks.
13:42But these, in fact, are oak trees.
13:44Later, Bob published a book of his photos.
13:48It became a bestseller,
13:49paying for hundreds of trees to be replanted,
13:52as well as a swimming pool,
13:54a present from Bob to his wife.
13:57Some present?
13:58Yes.
13:58Shall we try it?
14:00After you.
14:00All right.
14:01But 30 years ago,
14:08people wanted to know
14:10why us weather forecasters
14:12hadn't seen this coming,
14:13with a bleary-eyed Ian McCaskill
14:16taking the first hit.
14:18Well, Ian,
14:18you chaps were a fat lot of good last night.
14:20Well, we have been forecasting
14:22high winds and gills
14:23relentlessly since Sunday.
14:26We admit, I admit,
14:27we weren't forecasting
14:28hurricane-force winds,
14:30and that's what we got.
14:34And it wasn't long
14:35before the media latched onto
14:37my unfortunate choice of words.
14:40Earlier on today,
14:41apparently,
14:41a woman rang the BBC
14:42and said she heard
14:43that there was a hurricane on the way.
14:44Well, if you're watching,
14:45don't worry,
14:46there isn't,
14:47there isn't.
14:49If I had a penny
14:50for every time that video's been shown,
14:52I'd be a multi-millionaire by now.
14:54And what the world
14:57and his wife wanted to know
14:59was who was that mystery woman.
15:02Time for myth number four.
15:06When Michael Fish come on the TV,
15:09he did say that a lady had fooned him,
15:11but not to be so daft.
15:12Yeah.
15:12Well, of course,
15:13that was my mother,
15:14Doris from Melton,
15:15and she is 94 now.
15:19That was, of course,
15:21a spoof,
15:22though over the years,
15:23various papers claim
15:24to have tracked down
15:25the mystery caller.
15:27More on that particular myth later.
15:31There's no doubt
15:32my gaff has provided
15:34rich pickings for comedians.
15:37Remember the three Ps.
15:40Poise,
15:42purpose,
15:43and porpoise.
15:45Cousin to the dolphin
15:46and lucky weather charm.
15:49Comedian Russell Layton
15:51is touring with his one-man show,
15:53Hurricane Michael,
15:54about me
15:55and our national obsession
15:56with the weather.
15:58It's like it's a family member
15:59and some mornings you get up
16:01and it's raining again
16:03and you're like,
16:04oh,
16:05how could you?
16:07This is the sixth day running.
16:09Sleight of hand
16:10on heart
16:11increasing in intensity
16:13to sporadic
16:14outbursts of jazz hands.
16:16The 80s
16:17has driven with
16:18conspiracy theories
16:19and one of the stories
16:21during the rounds
16:22was that
16:22the storms
16:24due to
16:25a Russian weather machine
16:26that they created,
16:29you know,
16:30the commies,
16:31the pinkos.
16:32Must have been
16:32a good weather machine
16:33because windspeed
16:34here in Shulham
16:35were the highest recorded
16:36at 115 miles an hour.
16:41And if you think
16:41that's a tall story...
16:43It was two days
16:43before my wedding
16:44and we woke up
16:45with the air raid siren going
16:47so we actually thought
16:49the world had come to an end.
16:51I had this extreme urge,
16:54desire to go out
16:55and fly
16:57in the wind.
17:01I didn't.
17:02See?
17:03Russian mind control
17:04and time to bust
17:06myth number five.
17:10I said
17:11there wasn't a hurricane
17:12on the way.
17:13Then,
17:13just hours later,
17:14parts of Britain
17:15were buffeted
17:16by the worst storm
17:17for several hundred years.
17:20I've come to
17:21a new broadcasting house
17:22in London,
17:23home to the BBC's
17:25weather centre.
17:26So,
17:27was it really a hurricane?
17:31I'm meeting someone
17:33who should know the answer.
17:34BBC weatherman
17:37Thomas Schaffernacker,
17:38a mere eight years old
17:40in 87,
17:41he's now a hurricane expert
17:42just back from Florida.
17:44Hurricane Irma
17:45holds the record
17:47for managing
17:48to sustain
17:49Category 5
17:50longer
17:50than any other hurricane
17:52in recorded history.
17:55Now that's a hurricane.
17:57Help me,
17:57take me,
17:58I'm no sugar.
17:58Back in the relative
18:00calm of the weather centre,
18:02I'm hoping Tom
18:03can help me out here.
18:05OK, Tom,
18:06well, look,
18:06please,
18:07if I give you ten quid,
18:08will you back me up?
18:09Mine was not
18:10a hurricane.
18:11At least mine wasn't,
18:12yours was.
18:13You're absolutely right.
18:14It was not a hurricane.
18:15hurricanes are completely
18:18different weather systems.
18:19They don't occur here
18:20in the UK.
18:21They have to happen
18:22over tropical waters.
18:24But the one in 87
18:26still produced
18:27hurricane strength winds.
18:29So you don't have
18:29to have a hurricane
18:30to make hurricane
18:31force winds,
18:32if you know what I mean.
18:33It can still be nasty.
18:34Thank you, Tom.
18:37More from you later.
18:40In 1987,
18:42there was another
18:42hurricane threatening Florida.
18:44Same situation,
18:45and that's why
18:45we expect Floyd
18:46to take a turn
18:47on off to the right.
18:49Hurricane Floyd
18:49was circling the Gulf of Mexico
18:51a few days before
18:52the great storm here,
18:53which brings us nicely back
18:56to myth number four,
18:57the woman who ran the BBC.
19:01The great Michael Fish.
19:05Give him a round of applause.
19:07After the show in Shoreham,
19:08we do a Q&A.
19:10It's a chance
19:10to set the record straight.
19:13There was no woman caller.
19:16I made her up.
19:17A studio cameraman
19:18had told me
19:19that his mum was worrying
19:20about flying out
19:21to the Caribbean.
19:22And she was asking
19:24about a hurricane
19:25that was actually rampaging
19:26at that time
19:27off the Florida coast.
19:28And she was anxious
19:29going on holiday
19:30as to whether
19:30it was going to affect her.
19:32And I assured her
19:33most certainly
19:34that it wasn't.
19:35And it just happened
19:36to be in the back
19:37of my mind
19:37when we did
19:38the live broadcast.
19:39And so this unfortunate
19:41phrase slipped out
19:42at the time.
19:43Slightly unfortunate
19:44to say the reason.
19:45Good timing, Michael.
19:51Ah, we're all laughing now.
19:53But at the time,
19:54while we were on telly
19:55day in and day out,
19:56us weather forecasters
19:58were employed
19:58by the Met Office.
19:59And they discouraged us
20:01from talking to the media
20:02about what had happened,
20:03even though there were
20:05serious questions to answer.
20:07Even as the repairs
20:08and the mopping up
20:08get underway,
20:09people are asking,
20:10why weren't we warned?
20:12Didn't the weathermen
20:13know there was such
20:14a fierce storm
20:15on its way?
20:18Time to answer
20:18those questions now
20:19at the Met Office's
20:21swanky headquarters
20:22in Exeter.
20:22I'm meeting my former colleague,
20:27Ewan McCallum,
20:28a senior forecaster
20:30at the time,
20:31though not actually
20:32on shift the day
20:33of my infamous appearance.
20:3530 years is a long time, mate.
20:37It seems like just yesterday,
20:38as a matter of fact.
20:40We've asked to see
20:41old satellite photographs,
20:42hand-drawn weather maps
20:43and hand-written reports
20:45from back then,
20:45to see if there are
20:48any signs that were missed
20:49all those years ago.
20:51They talk a lot
20:52about heavy rain.
20:53Yes.
20:53And do you remember
20:55there was flooding
20:56rather than the actual winds?
20:58Yeah, Bill Giles,
20:59that's right,
21:00in his presentation,
21:01didn't mention the winds at all.
21:02He just said
21:02breezy up the channel.
21:04And of course,
21:04in fairness,
21:05I mean, flooding
21:05was very high profile
21:06in the media.
21:07I see there were some warnings.
21:09For instance,
21:09we have here,
21:10Tuesday the 13th,
21:12storm force winds,
21:13Thursday and Friday.
21:14And then on Wednesday,
21:16we have an angry spell coming.
21:20I mean,
21:20for those days,
21:21even back in 87,
21:22my angry spell,
21:23I mean,
21:23that's quite emotive words.
21:25It is, isn't it?
21:26You wouldn't have expected
21:27it to be used.
21:28No,
21:28and what's disappointing
21:29is that message
21:30from the Sunday
21:31got lost.
21:32Now,
21:33the great storm's well known,
21:35the story's been told.
21:36You can't go back
21:37and explain that
21:38there were actually some...
21:39Because at the end of the day,
21:41the message did not
21:42get across the night before.
21:44No.
21:44But nowadays,
21:46I'd like to think
21:46that angry spell
21:47and that message,
21:48the history of that,
21:49the memory of that,
21:50would somehow come across
21:51in the world.
21:52Yeah,
21:52well,
21:52these days,
21:53they might issue a warning
21:53five days in advance
21:54and continue rolling
21:56right the way through
21:56the period.
21:57Absolutely.
21:58So there'd be no
21:58getting away from it.
21:59Absolutely.
22:031987 became a turning point.
22:06These days,
22:07computers can crunch
22:08200 billion sets
22:10of observations a day.
22:14The results are sent
22:15to the BBC forecasters,
22:16like Tom,
22:17to translate
22:18into an accurate forecast.
22:20Well,
22:20the wind certainly
22:21rattled our windows last night.
22:23One of the things
22:23that we heavily rely on
22:25is running the computer
22:27model multiple times
22:29so that we get
22:29lots of different results.
22:31And the reason
22:31why we do that
22:32is because we feed
22:33the computer
22:34with slightly different
22:35information,
22:36a slightly higher temperature,
22:37a slightly stronger wind,
22:38but only by a fraction.
22:40And then we get
22:40lots of results.
22:42And if all the results
22:43are more or less
22:43pointing to a big storm
22:46or a spell
22:47if settled,
22:47whether we're confident
22:48that we've got
22:49the right answer.
22:51So do you think
22:51we'd pick it up today,
22:52the way technology
22:53has advanced?
22:54I think you would
22:55be able to predict
22:56a storm like the 87 one
22:58these days.
22:59You would see it
23:00on the satellite image.
23:01There's something
23:01called a sting jet,
23:02which is a very clear marker.
23:05You can see from space
23:07a particular cloud feature.
23:08They're only very short-lived.
23:10They don't often happen inland
23:12and they certainly
23:12don't often strike big cities.
23:14They usually happen
23:15off the northwest coast
23:16of Scotland,
23:16but they're more understood now.
23:19And I think back in 87,
23:20even if you saw it
23:21on the satellite image,
23:22you wouldn't know
23:23what it was
23:23because it was poorly understood.
23:25And even when I was
23:26at university,
23:27the sting jet
23:27wasn't even that well known.
23:33So back in the archives
23:35at the Met Office,
23:36was there a sting
23:38in the tail
23:39on those early satellite images?
23:41So you look at that zone.
23:43Yeah.
23:43I mean, that's the basis
23:44of what they call
23:45the sting jet now.
23:46This is very,
23:47very powerful,
23:48low-level winds.
23:49This is three o'clock
23:49in the morning.
23:51I think the storm
23:51was at its peak.
23:52It was.
23:53It certainly was.
23:53And these powerful winds
23:56with mean speeds
23:57of up to 50,
23:5860 miles an hour,
23:59we've got some
24:00excess of 100.
24:01We're battering,
24:02literally battering
24:03the south coast.
24:06And if we go back
24:07and look at Bill's forecast...
24:09Now, the satellite picture
24:10sets the scene.
24:11It shows the British Isles,
24:12in fact,
24:12is underneath there somewhere.
24:14There's the sting jet,
24:16staring us in the face.
24:17The important thing
24:18at the time,
24:19no one discussed sting jets
24:21when it came to the great storm.
24:22It's only with hindsight
24:23going forward
24:24as that dynamical theory
24:25was developed
24:26round about,
24:27you know,
24:28in the 90s and 2000s,
24:29sometime after.
24:30They went back
24:31and they actually
24:32analysed the great storm
24:33and found that
24:34it fitted well
24:34with this dynamical,
24:36scientific term
24:37called the sting jet.
24:38There you go.
24:43It wasn't the Russians,
24:45it wasn't me,
24:46and I can't even blame
24:47Bill Giles anymore.
24:49Ah, not again.
24:50It was the sting jet
24:51what done it,
24:53and if another one
24:53comes along,
24:54I'm confident
24:55that next time round
24:56we'll all get
24:57plenty of warning.
24:59Sleep tonight.
25:00So,
25:02at long last
25:03my mission is complete.
25:05I won't be needing
25:06this anymore.
25:07In fact,
25:08I feel an area
25:09of high pressure
25:09coming on.
25:10Yes,
25:11believe it or not,
25:12dry,
25:13sunny spells,
25:14light winds,
25:16and very warm indeed.
25:17What more could you want?
25:18Why does it always
25:20rain on me?
25:21Oh, no.
25:23Even when the sun is shining,
25:25I can't afford
25:26the lightning.
25:27Oh,
25:28round to the blue sky.
25:30Let it go.
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