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Well let's get more on that announcement that Australia’s largest aluminium smelter Tomago Aluminium will remain open after talks with the federal government.

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00:00Well, it is the largest. We've had a number of smelters around the country. This one's
00:06about 40 years old. It was built back then and in those days it would have been globally
00:11one of the biggest smelters and certainly on the basis of the cost of electricity it
00:14had then, one of the most efficient as well. So it was in the top quarter of the cost bracket
00:19of these sorts of plants. Aluminium is a huge use of electricity. That smelter is more than
00:2810 percent of New South Wales electricity goes into that one site. It's a big deal.
00:33So you can understand why the concerns arose when it looked like the commercial arrangements
00:38that the electricity market was offering Tomago to roll over their contracts, which are about
00:42to expire in 2028, were very important. And when those prices looked to be much higher
00:47than they'd seen before, the owners of Tomago, dominated by Rio Tinto, said, well, you know
00:51what? This is looking too tough. We don't think we're going to be able to survive with prices
00:54that high. And so as a consequence of that, we've seen the announcement today. We've not
01:00seen a lot of detail yet and there may still be some concerns about it, but I have to expect
01:04that since the Prime Minister was there and made the announcement that a deal has been
01:07done, it's a matter of how that will play out.
01:10Yeah. 10 percent of New South Wales electricity is quite a significant proportion. I hadn't heard
01:17that. The Prime Minister said today that the government is investing because if Australia
01:24doesn't produce aluminium, the knock on effect to other industries is significant. Can you
01:30take us through, I guess, in some more detail what some of those knock on effects would be?
01:35Look, there's two big issues here, I think, Mel. One is the immediate survival of the business
01:42and as the Prime Minister talked about, the jobs and the flow on economic impact on the
01:47region. Now, other businesses come and go and what used to be the BHP steel business is
01:52no longer there. So things can happen, right? So the really important question here is, and
01:55the Prime Minister enunciated this in some ways, and that is that you want to set this up for
02:00a sustainable, ongoing business. I mean, Tomogo already exports 90 percent of its aluminium,
02:06and given we have other aluminium smelters, it's not as though we'd be without aluminium
02:11if we didn't have that smelter. But it is an important part of that structure,
02:16and you can see why this made some sense. The important question into the future is going to be,
02:22if we do find a way of providing not just electricity at an affordable price, but renewable
02:27electricity, which is what we understand is being contemplated, then we're looking at a future
02:32maybe. Well, because we've got the bauxite and the illuminer in this country, because we've got
02:37the low cost renewable energy, which we should have, then we can provide an ongoing sustainable
02:42business for Tomogo in the Hunter Valley. Now, that's a big assumption. The decision today almost
02:49rests on that assumption, and it may not happen. But it seems like I think the government's probably
02:54wisely has taken a big decision, what is partly a political decision, but also there are other
03:00issues involved as well. Well, as you say, we don't have a whole lot of detail exactly just yet about
03:07what exactly it is the government will be doing. The CEO said in October that the price of both
03:14renewable and coal-fired power into the future would render the smelter unviable. But to what you were
03:20sort of saying there, what is the long-term outcome here? Is it feasible for governments to
03:26to bail out smelters like this into the future? Well, it makes no sense, really, if there's no
03:33future. Now, we don't know. That's the difficulty here. The future is unknown. And if you look at what
03:38happened in Wayala, for example, the steelworks, 600 million dollars of money was put into that
03:42steelworks to keep it going. But the Commonwealth Government has promised more than a billion dollars,
03:47provided there is a pathway to green steel into the future. So that's what we're talking about
03:52here, is that it may very well make sense to prop up a business for a while, but you've got to be
03:57convinced there's at least a high probability that when we get into a low-emission future, in a world in
04:03which the rest of the world values renewable-based green aluminium, that in that future this business
04:10will be sustainable. Now, we don't know. I can't tell you right now that's going to happen. And that's why
04:15this is important for the government to take that risk. However, what's important is that the
04:20government has a get out of jail card. So if, for example, it turned out that in 10 years time,
04:27despite what the government's done this year, that business is not able to survive in whatever
04:32that future brings, then we need to have an exit strategy so that the government is not on the hook
04:37for ongoing subsidies forever, because that makes, that doesn't make any sense. But right now,
04:43because of the uncertainty, because of the immediate pressure, a deal of something like this
04:48is important and makes sense. The detail yet to come, I understand that maybe, sorry, Hydro will be
04:54involved, which is a federal government owned energy business, but they're the details that haven't
04:58been released as yet.
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