00:00A congressional race that should be a layup for Republicans is turning into a heart-pounding contest that may require a three-point buzzer beater to win.
00:08Here's why the special election in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District could be bad news for Republicans.
00:17Early voting is over and Election Day is Tuesday. A new poll reveals the race is neck and neck.
00:2248% say they'll vote for Republican Matt Van Epps and 46% support Democrat Afton Ben.
00:28The results are within the margin of error and 5% are still undecided.
00:33Pollster Spencer Kimball said of the poll,
00:35The special election in Tennessee's 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turn out on Election Day and who stays home.
00:43This poll is surprising and, if accurate, would be troubling news for Republicans. Why?
00:48Because Donald Trump and former Congressman Mark Green, who resigned, both won this district by more than 20 points just a year ago.
00:55Now, the president's approval rating among voters in that district is underwater. 47% approval to 49% disapproval.
01:03Kimball said,
01:04President Trump's approval rating is a stark reversal from last November when he carried the district by 22 points. The decline is driven by independents, among whom 59% disapprove and just 34% approve.
01:18Losing this seat would have a big impact on the balance of power. There would be 219 Republicans and 214 Democrats. So to pass legislation on party lines, Republicans could only lose two votes.
01:30If Republicans keep the seat and go to 220 members, they'll be able to lose three.
01:36But remember, Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene is resigning January 5th. So that will cost Republicans another seat until it's filled.
01:44There's also this to keep in mind. Democrats have two vacant seats in safe districts that have yet to be filled.
01:51There will be a special election January 31st in Texas and another April 16th in New Jersey.
01:56A Democratic sweep could bring the House balance of power to 218 to 216, meaning Republicans wouldn't be able to lose a single vote to pass any bill on their own.
02:08I'm Ray Bogan for Straight Hour News. For more unbiased reporting straight from our nation's capital, download the SAN app.
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