Democrats Have More to Lose

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00:00I mean, you're seeing thousands of government employees being furloughed.

00:04Some are working, essential workers are working without pay.

00:07But really, it's interesting to see the priorities of the Trump administration.

00:11So far as ICE and the military are fine and well-funded,

00:14I think that the Trump administration is quite happy.

00:16And what you're seeing in this classic Mexican standoff,

00:18which is what it's turned into, is that the one with more to lose caves.

00:23And at the moment, it looks like it's the Democrats.

00:25We already saw a few Democrat members of the House,

00:28like John Fetterman, already voted in favor of this bill

00:30because they didn't want to see the shutdown, which has materialized.

00:33In the Senate, it's a bit more complicated

00:35because senators have less incentive to end the shutdown, basically.

00:38They have the cushion of being re-elected every six years.

00:41So they don't feel that pressure like House of Representatives

00:44who are going to basically face a midterm election next year.

00:48So at the end of the day, who has the most to lose?

00:52At the moment, it is the Democrats.

00:53One of the things that we're going to see in December,

00:56at the end of the tax credits for Obamacare,

00:59which many people are going to see themselves lose

01:02because the Republicans have basically suspended it indefinitely,

01:08is you're going to see their health premiums rise.

01:09So you're going to see healthy Americans

01:11actually effectively get rid of their health insurance,

01:14which means that premiums have to rise

01:15to cover more expensive, less healthy Americans

01:20who tend to vote Democrat, who tend to live in poorer areas,

01:22who are going to see their premiums rise

01:23and ask the Democrats, what are you doing?

01:25Our bills are going up.

01:27So unfortunately, you know, the markets have been quite calm,

01:30again, playing into Trump's favour

01:31because they haven't rioted like the Democrats are hoping.

01:34And the last shutdown lasted 35 days.

01:37I suspect this will last maybe just as long or longer.

01:40But the cards are really in the Republicans' favour.

01:42And the Americans that I've got to leave