00:00Dan Ives of WebBush, remaining bullish on NVIDIA, writing,
00:03NVIDIA is the indisputable Rocky Balboa champion of the AI revolution,
00:08and that is not changing anytime soon on the chip front.
00:11Pleased to say that Dan joins us now.
00:13Dan, great to see you.
00:14Great to be here.
00:15Okay, I want to ask about the posts,
00:17because you had that post of them saying, like,
00:19congrats, Google, but we're better.
00:21They also responded to Michael Burry's takedown of the depreciation thing.
00:25It kind of gives a feeling that, like, NVIDIA cares about the fact that their share price is falling,
00:31and they're trying to fight back against it.
00:32What do you make of this sort of PR push they're doing?
00:35Yes, I view it a little differently.
00:37Look, I mean, at the end of the day, like, there's one godfather, and that's Jensen.
00:41I think Jensen right now, it's a recognition that they're transparent.
00:47In other words, like, NVIDIA's not trying to hide anything.
00:50They're ultimately saying, like, hey, we are out there front and center,
00:54and it just comes down to demand and supply is 12 to 1 for their chips.
00:58I mean, I saw that being in Asia for the last three weeks.
01:01So with them congratulating Google, AMD, and others that are going to be successful,
01:05it continues to be NVIDIA's world, and everyone else is paying rent.
01:09But the reality is that they are not going to sit there and hide behind some PR
01:14when it comes to, you know, whether it's Burry or anyone else calling it a bubble.
01:18I mean, Jensen's going to be out there front and center,
01:21because, in my opinion, it continues to only be 10.30 p.m.
01:25in that AI party that goes to 4 a.m.
01:27But, you know, this makes me think a lot of Intel.
01:32Back in the day when we were all rushing out to get the 386,
01:36and then the 486, and maybe the Pentium, right?
01:38But then Apple was like, why are we giving them these margins?
01:42Let's make our own chips.
01:43And so did everyone else.
01:46And now Intel obviously needs a sort of government bailout in the form of a stake purchase.
01:51Why isn't NVIDIA vulnerable to the same kind of, you know, vertical integration at these,
01:57if Meta, if Google, if Amazon all make their own chips, as they are doing?
02:03It's a great point.
02:04And I get the comparison.
02:06They're four years ahead, in my opinion, of really anyone else in the world, including Quali, right?
02:12So it comes down to, like, now, will there be a gap in the hour?
02:16Big tech's going to continue.
02:17They're going to go and make their chip.
02:19You'll see that they'll vertically have that echo.
02:22And that's a great thing.
02:24Because the reality right now is, like, 12 to 1, demand and supply.
02:27In other words, NVIDIA doesn't have enough chips to ultimately meet demand, right, relative to what we see.
02:34But it speaks to my point.
02:35It's about the second, third, fourth derivatives of AI.
02:38I point out you have $3 to $4 trillion that's going to be spent in the next few years.
02:42To call this a bubble, it's wrong.
02:44Some of you have to cover tech stocks in the late 90s.
02:48This is, it's a 1996 moment, not a 1999 tech bubble moment.
02:53That continues to be our view.
02:55How does that $3 to $4 trillion of spending get funded?
02:59Famously, Sam Altman was asked on stage a couple of weeks ago how he's going to fund his $1.4 trillion in CapEx plans with only $13 billion in revenue.
03:09And he just got so angry that he declined to answer the question, right?
03:13I see that, you know, ChatGPT has, right now, I think, two, they have a $20 charge, right, for the account that I pay double because I have a work and a personal account.
03:31But they're not making massive amounts of revenue.
03:3535 million people are signed on.
03:37And it could turn out to be, like, the Friendster or even maybe the MySpace of AI.
03:41Where does this revenue come from?
03:43Yeah, well, see, look, today, it's still enterprise.
03:46You know, when we think about the enterprise, only 3% of companies have gone down the AI path.
03:52So when you look with, and that's just in the U.S.
03:54Globally, that's just actually starting with sovereigns, what we're seeing in Asia.
03:58So when I look at OpenAI, I view it as, it's not just going to be a ChatGPT.
04:02It's about what that's going to be on the enterprise, consumer.
04:06The consumer applications haven't even started relative to Apple.
04:09But it has to come quick, right?
04:10I mean, remember when the dot-com bubble burst, it took years and years to make up the revenue that we needed to pay for the fiber outlay in the beginning.
04:18Yeah, and I think for OpenAI, for every dollar that they're spending in terms of the stakes that they're taking, just like NVIDIA, they'll get $12, $15, $20 back in terms of revenue.
04:29If we're, though, talking about who wins the enterprise race, I mean, wouldn't that be Google, though?
04:34They already have relationships with 40,000 companies.
04:38And then when it comes to consumers, they know that name so much better.
04:42I mean, increasingly, obviously, they know about OpenAI and, say, Meldman and ChatGPT.
04:46But especially with that enterprise relationship, who's to say that OpenAI wins out on that horse race?
04:52Look, I think there's going to be many winners, right?
04:54I mean, from NVIDIA on the chip side, when you're talking about Microsoft, where they stay on the hyper-cycle, Oracle.
04:58And I think that stock's been way oversold here.
05:01But look, the reality is, you go back earlier this year, the New York City cab driver was bearish on Google.
05:07Now look at it, because it's my view.
05:10It's not just on enterprise with GCP, with Google Cloud, with what's happened on chips along with Broadcom.
05:16But also, you look out, they're going to ultimately have that Apple deal.
05:21I mean, Apple is going to have to bet on Gemini as their AI partnership, which is another benefit here.
05:27So I think it just speaks to our view is that it's not just about NVIDIA.
05:31And I believe NVIDIA, ultimately, is a stock that goes much higher here, $225, $250.
05:35But it's about the second, third, fourth derivatives playing out across, you know, I think the world.
05:42And for the first time in 30 years, the U.S. is ahead of China when it comes to tech.
05:46So NVIDIA at the lowest in the month, is this just like the most incredible buying opportunity that we're going to see for this company?
05:53Every time this sells off, you own it, because it's my view, it's $5 trillion, and ultimately it's $6 trillion.
05:58Because look, there's only one godfather of A, and that's Jensen.
06:02And there's one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution.
06:05And that continues to be NVIDIA.
06:08There will be other, like, any time if there's a deep-seek moment, you'll have Googled TPU.
06:14You know, there's going to be other things that happen, but nothing is going to get what I view as really this Rocky Balboa of the AI revolution, which is, you know, Jensen and NVIDIA.
06:24You must have the most fun Thanksgiving Day conversation around the dinner table.
06:28I'm trying to get invited over to the Ives household.
06:29That sounds like a good time.
06:30Look, and again, the goal is a lot of food, a lot of sports, and maybe some AI talk here and there.
06:37What more could you want to learn?
06:38Is Penn State playing this weekend?
06:39And we play Rutgers, and then we'll have our new coach by early next week, and then we start the upward climb, which I'm very optimistic.
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