Since September, blockades have been multiplying across Mali, carried out by jihadists from the JNIM, the Al-Qaeda-linked Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims. The jihadists are imposing a fuel blockade that has paralysed the landlocked Sahel country's economy. The resulting unrest and violence have sent refugees fleeing westwards into Mauritania. We speak with Oluwole Ojewale, co-ordinator for West and Central Africa at the Institute for Security Studies.
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00:00This is apropos. Some filling stations have been reopening in Bamako and classes gradually
00:08resuming for the first time since an al-Qaeda affiliate imposed a fuel blockade on Mali in
00:14September, prompting a crisis for its ruling military junta. The African Union is calling
00:20for an urgent international response, including intelligence sharing, to address the West
00:25African countries worsening security conditions. Residents say entire villages are being forced
00:31by jihadists to leave their homes. France 24's Caitlin Kelly has been meeting refugees at
00:37the border with Mauritania. She sent this report. Just a few kilometres from here lies extremist
00:44held territory, where fighting between the Malian army, its Russian allies and armed groups
00:50has intensified in recent weeks. And now here on the Malian border with Mauritania, hundreds
00:55of refugees are fleeing the violence. In late September, the al-Qaeda link group Jainim
01:00announced it was cutting off fuel supplies to Mali, setting up checkpoints on main roads
01:04to stop fuel from reaching the cities and effectively crippling the country's economy.
01:09Around 20 kilometres from this point on the border, in villages like Leray, family described
01:14living under blockade, with food and supplies cut off by the group. Refugees I've spoken to
01:20Jainim ordered entire villages to leave, giving residents just a couple of days to leave or
01:26face life under their rule, or even death.
01:29Others told me they fled attacks from the Malian army and its Russian allies, Africa Corps, reporting
01:35drone strikes and ground attacks less than 30 kilometres from here. Some described their
01:40whole village as burnt and family members killed before their eyes.
01:44On one side of us were the jihadists, and on the other, Wagner. In the past, we could
01:50hide, but now it's not possible. The girl sat next to me. Her father was taken and we've
01:54had no news since.
01:56We hate Wagner for coming into our country, for slaughtering us on our own land without
02:01having done anything to deserve it.
02:04In the past two weeks alone, more than 1,600 people have arrived here at this border point
02:09in Mauritania as the situation next door worsens, joining over 300,000 refugees already displaced
02:15into this region.
02:16We are all scared our souls are not at peace because we are dying every day. We saw we were
02:20in danger of dying, so we decided to leave.
02:23We left everything we owned behind, and we can't go back to recover any of it.
02:30Many believe this is Mali's most critical moment since 2012, as fighting across the country
02:35between the army, its Russian allies and insurgents, has already displaced millions. As one refugee
02:41described it to me, Mali has become a no-go zone.
02:46Caitlin Kelly reporting. A Malian woman who'd regularly posted videos on TikTok praising the
02:52janta has been abducted by armed men and executed in a public square. State television is reporting
02:58that Mariam Sisay, who had nearly 100,000 followers on the video sharing site, was kidnapped
03:04by suspected jihadists in the northern town of Tonka on Thursday, and later shot dead by
03:10her captors, who'd accused her of collaborating with the army.
03:14Well, for more, let's bring in Oluwuli Ojewali, Coordinator for West and Central Africa at the Institute
03:21for Security Studies. Thanks so much for being with us on the programme this evening.
03:28Firstly, let's talk about this, the fuel blockade. It seems as though the situation is slightly easing
03:35from today. Just remind us what exactly triggered this, and how has the situation been evolving
03:41over the past few weeks? Thank you so much for having me.
03:48The experience in Mali in the last few days is a replica of what we've seen elsewhere,
03:54particularly in Syria and in Afghanistan, how the terrorists have demonstrated resilience
04:01to outlive governments, or even foreign forces that have come to probably
04:06liberate those countries. And in the case of Mali in the past few days, I think what is happening
04:13is the fact that the jihadist in Mali is trying to replicate the same playbook that we've seen in other places
04:23by going for what makes for a strategic attack, in the sense that going for this blockade offers them the opportunity
04:33to completely collapse the country or paralyse the economy. And I think the Malian government is also
04:40fighting hard to be able to save the country from sliding into chaos, which is the political objective
04:47of JINIM in the recent time, particularly as they have attempted to encycle Bamako.
04:54The government says as well, it's doing everything possible to address this crisis.
04:59But what exactly does it intend to do? And how much of a threat do these jihadist groups pose more widely?
05:09It's a very significant threat, not only to Mali, but to the entire West African country.
05:15For the past two years, when the global jihadism headquarters relocated to West Africa, Mali has been at the center of that.
05:22The implication is that if Mali falls, then other West African countries might not be able to rest on,
05:29might not have a safe haven in terms of the border porosity and how arms group are actually crisscrossing
05:37and presenting themselves as a transnational security concern or threat in the region.
05:43So while the hub of the operation is the central sahel state of Mali and Burkina Faso and the jihadist,
05:51the implication is that if they are able to overrun Bamako, then that is going to be an unprecedented experience in West Africa.
05:59And they could actually become emboldened to attempt to take other countries' stand.
06:04So that is the major challenge that we're facing in West Africa now.
06:10And if you now situate this in the context of the experience that Malians are having or that other West African countries are having,
06:20like I mentioned, it presents a serious sub-regional security crisis.
06:26In terms of what the Malian government, the military government has been able to do, I think last week I listened to the Prime Minister,
06:34who said if it would take them to use pump, to scoop fuel from anywhere they can get it, they are going to get it to Mali.
06:42And the experience of the last few days shows that the trucks, fierce trucks are coming into Mali but under force protection.
06:51And the question is that how sustainable is that and how long are they going to be able to actually carry that out?
06:59Considering the fact that it is the same military that is engaged in guerrilla warfare across the country,
07:06that has now been strategically deployed to begin to escort fuel into the country.
07:12So the military is going to be stretched in and then knowing fully aware that the terrorist group are a very decentralized group,
07:20then they can begin to strike in other part of Mali to also distract the military from the present task that they are engaging in,
07:30which is escorting fiat tanks and trucks into Mali.
07:35So it's a security threat that has multidimensional faces to it.
07:40And why do you think this surge has been happening, this surge in jihadist attacks, since the Junta came to power
07:47and we saw France removing its influence also in Mali?
07:53Well, I think the number one factor is the fact that, like I mentioned earlier,
08:01Mali has emerged as one of the major headquarters of terrorist groups in the world.
08:08Foreign fighters are returning to central Sahel now because it appears to be the place that provide them that ungovernable corridor
08:17or places where they can actually strike and carry out their criminal activities.
08:22The second part is the fact that Mali has not been able to diversify its security cooperation.
08:30It's focused solely on Russia.
08:33Russia is also engaged in serious war with Ukraine now, which possibly limited the ability of Russia to provide them the need of support that they need at this critical time.
08:48ECOWAS has already muted an idea of a standby counter-terrorism force, which requires about $5 billion to operationalize that.
09:00But the fact that Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are pulled out of ECOWAS, then it becomes very difficult to provide some security partnership.
09:09Whether it is in here campaign or land warfare, the possibility of actually having that security cooperation is far-fetched now.
09:19So when you look at all these factors, coupled with the fact that the regime is, the military government is preoccupied with regime protection,
09:28which is about securing Bamako and maybe a reasonable radius outside Bamako.
09:34What it means is that those terrorist groups can run amok in other parts of the country and they are having a few days.
09:42And the African Union, we heard from it today, calling for an urgent international response to what is happening in Mali.
09:50Would Junta leaders actually, though, accept international assistance if it were to come from anywhere apart from Russia, given the influence that you've referred to there?
10:01Well, I think regional economic block and starting with the African Union cannot afford to just be making statements from Addis Ababa.
10:11If they really want to help Mali, I will expect that they will deploy an advanced team that will actually be engaging with the government of Mali
10:21and seeking areas that they can really support Mali in this critical time.
10:25And not only Mali, but the entire central Sahel state, including Burkina Faso and Niger.
10:31But characteristics, which is their peculiar nature, I believe that statement from the African Union is probably just a secretariat attempt to show that they are also concerned about the development in Mali.
10:47But if they really want to get involved, it is to send an advanced team that engage with the Malian government and see the areas through which they can provide them that security, cooperation or assistance.
10:58But, you know, Mali does not need to really look too far away.
11:03I think the starting point will be presented in two points.
11:06One is the fact that to start with, they need to begin to engage with the government of Ivory Coast and Senegal.
11:13These are the most consequential neighbors that Mali shares significant borders with.
11:18What sort of intelligence support and security cooperation can they actually enlist this country in terms of areas through which they can support them?
11:29And by extension, look in the direction of ECOWAS, because what we can say reasonably is that the AES alliance is not working because each of those countries are bogged down with their own internal security crisis and terrorism.
11:43So if the alliance that they put together is not able to save any member of that alliance, they need to actually begin to look in the direction of ECOWAS.
11:53And broadening the security partnership, even with the Western establishment, if they would need to go as far as the United States of America, Canada or even China, I think Mali needs all the security support that it can get now.
12:07And if AU is making that statement, they need to put their feet where they can really be seen to be supporting Mali and is to provide that security support in terms of maybe mobilizing standby force, counter-terrorism standby force, if they are able to do that, and support Mali in this critical time.
12:27And here you can also leverage, I mean, leverage ECOWAS to actually provide that critical support now.
12:35But the catch-a-lend that Mali is facing, the number one thing is that Mali must come to the realization that it cannot, it does not have the capability to subdue the terrorist groups that have been cycled by Makuna.
12:49Olawali Ojewali, Coordinator for West and Central Africa at the Institute for Security Studies, thanks so much for being with us on the program this evening.
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