00:00The next few months are critical to Taiwan's survival and America's position in the region.
00:04I just came back from Taiwan, where a couple of things became clearer to me.
00:08Beijing is pushing hard against Taiwan with military exercises, with cyber attacks, with political and social meddling.
00:16Taiwanese officials are very concerned about the island's ability to withstand the pressure.
00:21Taiwan is important for the United States, for China, and for the world for a variety of reasons.
00:25It's a technological superpower, thanks to TSMC.
00:28It's an example of a thriving democracy with Chinese characteristics.
00:32In friendly hands, Taiwan is thus a barrier to China's ambitions.
00:36In China's hands, it's a springboard from which China can expand further still.
00:40The other thing that was striking was the degree of discomfort in Taiwan's relationship with the United States.
00:46That relationship is absolutely critical to Taiwan's survival.
00:49And yet there's a lot of uncertainty about where exactly the United States stands in the age of Trump.
00:53Trump has never been super attached to Taiwan, and he's done a variety of things in his first 10 months that have made officials and strategists in Taiwan wonder about the level of U.S. commitment.
01:03The next few months are going to be critical for two reasons.
01:05First, Taiwan needs to seal a trade deal with the United States to reduce the high tariffs that President Trump put on Taiwanese goods over the summer.
01:14Second, Taiwan needs to pass a special defense budget, which will help get defense spending up to about 5% of GDP by 2030.
01:21The politics of that are tricky, though, and no one is entirely sure whether the opposition, KMT, is going to support the measure enough for it to pass.
01:29If these two issues can be resolved, it'll put the U.S.-Taiwan relationship on a sounder footing.
01:34If they can't, you'll get a crisis in that relationship just as China is ratcheting up the pressure.
01:39If they can't, you'll get a crisis in that relationship with the U.S.-Taiwan relationship with the U.S.-Taiwan relationship with the U.S.-Taiwan relationship with the U.S.-Taiwan relationship with the U.S.-Taiwan relationship with the U.S.-Taiwan relationship with the U.S.-Taiwan relationship with the U.S.-Taiwan relationship with the U.S.-Taiwan relationship with the U.S.-Taiwan relationship with the U.S.-Taiwan relationship with the U.S.-Taiwan relationship with the U.S.-Taiwan relationship with the U.S.-Taiwan relationship with the U.S.-Taiwan relationship with the U.S.-Taiwan relationship with the U.S.Taiwan relationship with the U.S.Taiwan relationship with the U.S.Taiwan relationship with the U.S.Taiwan relationship with the U.S.Tai
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