NFL Coaching Kalshi Market Update: Odds & Predictions

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00:00Here's a great one for the NFL, Joe, with the Cal State Markets.

00:03Who would get hired as a men's pro football coach this year?

00:07Mike McCarthy, Gerard Mayo, Antonio Pierce, Doug Peterson, Ron Rivera, Bill Belichick,

00:11and a couple other guys that are listed.

00:13Now, understand this.

00:14The question here, if you pick Mike McCarthy,

00:16let's just say he's at the top of the leaderboard right now, 14% chance.

00:19$100 pays back $715.

00:21But the rule summary here is,

00:23if Mike McCarthy is hired as a men's coach in pro football before January 1st,

00:28the market resolves to yes.

00:30That's the key.

00:31Not this year as opposed to this year before an NFL season starts next year.

00:34Like, oh, he'll be a coach by next year.

00:36They got to be hired, Joe, before the season is actually over.

00:41That's an extreme rarity where,

00:43hey, let me hire my coach with a game left in our NFL season.

00:47The no market is 93% as it should be.

00:49But I thought that was a key indicator where

00:51it's not the end of this season before next season.

00:54It's actually just this year alone, December 31st, 2025.

01:01There isn't one name on that list that you just rattled off there, Donnie,

01:06that teams are going to be lining up and clamoring to get

01:09where the first one at a table wins.

01:11That's, these are all retreads.

01:14These are not the hot new core.

01:15And any of the hot new coordinators or unknown commodities, Donnie,

01:20are going to be playing in the playoffs,

01:22and they can't interview and you can't talk to them anyway.

01:24So all of this is,

01:26that means that a team would have to love Mike McCarthy so much

01:30that they don't want to lose him to somebody else.

01:33That's not going to happen before January 1st.