September Jobs Report Will Come Out on Nov. 20

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00:00There is a lot to focus on, especially when you think about the headlines that we're getting

00:02about this slow trickle of when we're finally going to get these data releases.

00:07You know, I went and actually counted how many data releases we missed.

00:10Yeah.

00:10It was 43, and that was just the ones I could find.

00:12I'm sure I probably missed a couple.

00:14So we're going to start to get a trickle of that.

00:16They've only confirmed so far three or four reports that are going to be updated,

00:19including the September jobs report, which is supposed to release October 3rd,

00:24that will be released November 20th.

00:25The October jobs report, which I think we were supposed to get last Friday,

00:29they have not updated us on when we'll get that.

00:31And there's an issue of, like, whether the data is even going to be complete,

00:34that we're only going to get maybe some part of the survey, but not at all.

00:37So I'm so confused.

00:38Unclear what the collection efforts actually looked like during the shutdown.

00:42So still a lot of questions, even as we get this trickle.

00:45I mean, no one called me during the shutdown.

00:47No, no.

00:48I mean, I don't pick up the phone, so I don't know.

00:50Well, that's the other question, right?

00:51I know.

00:51Check your phone.

00:52We've been talking about the quality.

00:5320 missed calls from Romaine Bostic.

00:55From Romaine Bostic.

00:56We've been talking about quality of data even before the shutdown.

01:00So let's keep the conversation going now,

01:01because the aftermath of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history

01:05is slowly beginning to play out.

01:08And here, with his perspective, is Gene Sperling.

01:11He is president of Sperling Economic Strategies,

01:13former senior advisor to President Biden,

01:15and former national economic advisor to President Clinton and to President Obama.

01:20Gene, fantastic to have you with us.

01:22So we've been talking about this fog that we're in when it comes to the economic data,

01:25the fact that we're not getting it.

01:27Now, as we start to get these very delayed releases,

01:31a lot of questions about quality, a lot of questions about reliability.

01:34And I wonder, in your view, is the fog going to clear at all?

01:39You know, great question.

01:41And I don't totally know the answer.

01:44So, for example, you know, I was national economic advisor during the last long shutdown in 2013.

01:53And at that time as well, the data did not come out on time.

01:58But it came out about as many days as the shutdown lasted.

02:04Now you have the situation on the jobs numbers where the person in my former job, Kevin Hassett,

02:11is suggesting that maybe we will get the payroll and establishment jobs,

02:16but maybe we will never get the household survey,

02:20which tells us what the unemployment rate is going to be.

02:24And I do think it's difficult looking at the private data,

02:27because if you look at ADP, they tell you that we probably gained 40-some thousand jobs in October.

02:35Not great, not horrible.

02:37But now they have a new weekly index that suggests by the end of October,

02:41we might have actually been losing 10,000 jobs.

02:45Now, you heard Chairman Powell say when you're in a fog, you drive slower.

02:50And so I think that's why people are not as confident about this cut in December.

02:57And then I think the other thing is that, you know,

03:00I think the administration has hurt itself by kind of doing things that are essentially stagflationary.

03:06So immigration and the tariffs, they're harder than a lot of things for the Fed,

03:12because they both have negative inflationary effects,

03:15and they tend to hurt growth at the same time, which makes you have to weigh which is the worst.

03:24And again, you know, I think that the tariffs are more likely to keep having inflationary pressures.

03:34I think the big retail stores are doing it more slowly, so we haven't had the big boom.

03:40But you still have an economy that was projected last January to be at 2% inflation.

03:46And it's at 3%, and you don't know what's going to happen with the Supreme Court.

03:51And you have a lot of reason to think that big stores are going to continue to gradually raise prices

03:58for maybe the next several months.

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