00:00This one big, beautiful bill is going to add $3.3 trillion to the deficit if everything is temporary, it's kept temporary.
00:09If they extend things permanently, it's going to add $5.2 trillion to the deficit.
00:15But it's worse.
00:17Because just imagine, these projections are all made on a 10-year basis.
00:20And they assume consistent economic growth.
00:25So just imagine the Trump tariffs, because of the uncertainty and the variability, and is it 145% yesterday or 40% today on China, imagine we have a recession.
00:39In the last five or six recessions, the budget deficit actually blows out because tax revenues go down and spending increases, so-called automatic stabilizers.
00:52So what today is 6.4% of GDP as a deficit, $2.4 trillion deficit, could easily expand to $4 trillion if we had a recession.
01:04So they are risking a fiscal disaster.
01:09At which point we'll be at 125% debt to GDP or 130% debt to GDP.
01:14The debt to GDP comparison really isn't the most important one, right?
01:18We could sustain the level of debt we have if we can bring our deficits down and therefore get our interest rates down.
01:27The real problem, as you were talking to Zellen earlier, the real problem, as with a company, the country has, is the interest burden.
01:35So today, the interest burden on the federal government is consuming 18% of our revenues.
01:42Our total revenues, 18% of them are going to pay interest.
01:47That's going to be the largest spending category on the federal budget in a year.
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