Details emerging about Trump’s nuclear testing resurrection

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00:00The world got a bit of a scare just before Halloween, when President Donald Trump announced

00:05America's military would immediately resume testing of its nuclear weapons.

00:10Are you talking about literally resuming underground nuclear detonation tests?

00:15You'll find out very soon, but we're going to do some testing. Yeah, other countries do it.

00:19If they're going to do it, we're going to do it.

00:20Now, the United States already tests its nuclear launch and delivery systems,

00:25but those tests just don't include nuclear detonations. And as it turns out, the new

00:31testing Trump is referring to won't actually include any nuclear detonations either.

00:37At least that's what Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox News. That doesn't mean the U.S. can't

00:43or won't do underground nuclear tests in the future, though. In fact, every U.S. Congress

00:49since the 1990s has made sure the U.S. retained the power to perform underground nuclear testing.

00:58So back in 1963, the U.S. and most other nuclear powers signed the Partial Test Ban Treaty,

01:04which banned nuclear tests anywhere on land, in the atmosphere, in space or underwater,

01:10but not underground. So it is technically legal for nuclear weapons states like the United States

01:20or Russia or China to test underground. Daniel Schaub teaches political science at the University

01:26of Nebraska. He says while it may be legal since the end of the Cold War, most nuclear powers have

01:33agreed not to do any nuclear testing that requires actual nuclear detonations. There's been a few

01:40exceptions to this. India and Pakistan tested in the late 90s. Pakistan got its nuclear weapons in

01:45the late 90s. And North Korea has been testing sort of on and off again throughout the 21st century.

01:51Another agreement, the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, would completely ban all nuclear

01:57testing, regardless of where it happens. But that is something we've only signed as a state.

02:03We signed that in 1996. We have not ratified it. So the Senate has yet to give their stamp of approval

02:11on it. And it's unlikely that they will because it's been several consecutive administrations that

02:16have decided this isn't in the interest of the U.S. national security to completely limit nuclear

02:21testing. So when is it appropriate to perform an underground nuclear test? To help answer that

02:27question, I turned to retired Air Force Lieutenant General Mark Wetherington. He's a former deputy

02:33commander of U.S. Global Strike Command. Well, I think, you know, the United States conducted just a

02:38little over a thousand tests between the late 1940s and 1992. We've got an exquisite set of data,

02:49a lot of mathematics, a lot of advanced modeling techniques. And so I think there's a general

02:56feeling that we can model, do modeling and simulation and do some advanced analytics

03:02and high-powered computing and really understand all we need to understand from the existing data.

03:09However, you know that all elements of our nuclear triad are under modernization right now.

03:19You know, our adversaries, Russia has modernized its nuclear capabilities in the last several decades.

03:25The Chinese are undergoing a remarkable expansion right now. And so having been away from it for a

03:32couple of years, what I would say is if there is concern with the reliability of the stockpile,

03:39or if there's concern that we're redesigning the weapons to a degree that might require some

03:47additional data or a better understanding or just a confirmation or validation of what we understand

03:52about their reliability and their performance, then it may warrant conducting a test.

03:59If conducted, the tests would likely take place in either the New Mexico or Nevada deserts.

04:06General Wetherington and Schaub both say there would be benefits and drawbacks. New tests means new

04:12data, and they could also be used as a form of deterrence, given all the uncertainty in the world.

04:18In some ways, nuclear weapons are a familiar thing. They're very big, very powerful bombs that,

04:23in theory, hopefully deter other actors from using those very weapons against us. Maybe leaders,

04:29maybe the administration's turning to that to sort of mitigate the uncertainty in international

04:34politics right now. The drawbacks to resuming nuclear detonation tests beyond the obvious

04:40environmental impacts and high costs associated with performing them would likely be most evident

04:46in how America's adversaries react.

04:49If Russia takes this as a signal, well, now it's time to build up our stockpile since the United

04:54States is, that could be problematic. China actually has a great deal to benefit if the world sort of

05:01returns to an era of nuclear testing because China hasn't tested all that many nuclear weapons.

05:07And so they don't really have those sort of refined techniques to predict the effectiveness of

05:11these weapons. There's also the possibility of non-nuclear weapon states like Iran that is

05:18potentially seeking a nuclear weapon that they might take this as a signal to proliferate themselves.

05:25And so we just don't know how many of these actors, these foreign states will interpret what it is that the

05:34administration is saying. And it's not like there's not a history of misinterpretation of signals between

05:42the U.S. and adversarial nations, right? Yeah, there's certainly a lot of evidence that

05:48sometimes we certainly miscommunicate with one another.

05:51So to recap, when President Trump said the U.S. is going to resume nuclear testing, what that likely

05:58meant is the continued testing of existing launch and delivery systems, as well as the new systems

06:05that are coming online now and in the future. For their part, both Beijing and Moscow deny any part

06:12in any recent nuclear detonation tests. Russia did announce some successful tests of a nuclear-powered

06:19cruise missile and a nuclear-powered torpedo, but those did not include detonations. China is calling

06:27on the U.S. to maintain the current moratorium. For more reporting like this, download the Straight Arrow

06:33News app today.

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