00:00Minister, good afternoon. Thank you for being here with us.
00:03Good afternoon.
00:04I would like to start talking a little bit about the US-Brasil and the US-Brasil.
00:08The President Lula chose you, the Vice-President of the Alckmin, and the Minister Mauro Vieira
00:14as the negotiators of the Brazil in this process of re-approximation between the two countries
00:18that was recently returned.
00:21I would like to know if there is a date for you to discuss and what is the expectation
00:26of the senhor in relation to the tariffs and the law Magnitsky?
00:31Look, the arrival of the President, from a very well-suceded journey to Asia, coincided with
00:39the beginning of the COP.
00:41So, we are now, in this moment, a little bit involved in receiving the delegations of more
00:47of 150 countries that are coming to the COP.
00:49Even here, I stayed in São Paulo these days, and I was going to go to Belém to find
00:55the President on the 5th and 6th.
00:58So, as he arrived, I talked with the President that we would have a agenda after the COP, because
01:06before the COP, we were being procured here, both Mauro and I, and the Alckmin, we were being
01:13procured here in the Brasile, in virtue of the visit that we received.
01:18But I believe that, in the sequence, we should be able to move on.
01:23I don't know if it will be in a virtual or presencial, but who was
01:27encarregated to mark was the Chancellor Mauro Vieira.
01:31So, as soon as we have indicated the date, we should be able to move on.
01:36I believe that, in relation to the results of the conversation, I don't know how long will
01:42happen, but the important thing is that we started a phase of informing the government
01:48of the United States about how the Brazil works.
01:54Because as sanctions of political character, they don't make the most sense.
02:01And I think that the American government already has no idea of it.
02:05But when you enter in an Arapuca, like happened, they are paying for coffee, carne
02:13car, everything caro, you sometimes have to build a saída.
02:18And this construction, sometimes, from a point of view symbolic, requires a certain time.
02:26But we are, evidently, contrariados with the decision that they took there.
02:33Not because it affects the Brazilian economy from the point of view macroeconomic.
02:37But from the point of view of the company that export, it is a very big injustice.
02:43So, these employees, these employees, these employees, even though, not have a macroeconomic impact,
02:52they are suffering the consequences of a unjust decision against Brazil.
02:56And they are prejudicing the Brazilian families that they should not be passing by any kind of aperto.
03:04What important is also that the Brazilian plan is that the Brazilian plan is in full vapor.
03:09So, it will not be needed support for companies from the BNDES to support them while they are doing this
03:19in a travessia, so that we can reach to a definition.
03:24But I am optimistic that this will happen in a short period of time.
03:31Do you see the possibility of a retirada of Magnitsky, for example, too, that is a question more political?
03:36I think that two things are political.
03:39The 40% of the nature of the political nature is political.
03:43Because, if not, the United States would have other countries.
03:46And only Brazil is in this situation.
03:48In virtue of this specificity.
03:51But I believe that the 40% additional and Magnitsky have to be the point of part of any dialogue,
04:00in virtue of, let's say, the precedence of the decision taken.
04:07And, Ministro, part of a little bit for a domestic agenda, we are in a week of COPOM.
04:11Yes.
04:11Yes.
04:12The BNDES to be meeting this week.
04:14And the expectations are that the tax of juros will be in 15%, which is the highest level of
04:21almost 20 years.
04:22Yes.
04:23But since the last meeting of COPOM to a past, what we saw was some acceleration economic,
04:28the inflation converging, going closer to the goal.
04:32Yes.
04:33And, still, the market not only expects that the BNDES to maintain it, but it's going
04:38forward to the future as apostas of queda of juros, of estimating when the BNDES will
04:43start to cut.
04:44What is the vision that you have on this?
04:45What do you expect that the BNDES to do?
04:48What do you expect that the BNDES to do?
04:49What is your apostas?
04:50Look, I don't make a secret of my position on this, even if I'm giving an opinion, I don't
04:57offend anyone.
04:58It's a opinion that many bankers ligam, many assets are procurated and procurated for
05:05the BNDES to do their diagnosis.
05:07It's natural that the BNDES to do it, I can also do it respectfully and institutionally,
05:14as I have done.
05:16In the beginning of the year, when the juros were projected to reach the BNDES, the
05:23dollar, the inflation, were completely different from the today.
05:29Or, it changed a lot from the beginning of the year to the beginning of the year.
05:32There were some analysts, it's true that the most responsible, but they were projected to
05:39$7,000.
05:43People who don't have a lot of compromise with the truth and have a lot of money with
05:47money, but they projected $7,000, they projected $7,000, they projected $5,500, $6,000.
05:55We're seeing a lot of inflation already in the band, practically.
05:59In the band, nobody would say that at the beginning of the year.
06:03And the dollar was $5,40, $5,35 today, something like that.
06:08When it came to $6,20 in the beginning of the year.
06:12And I said, if you have to remember this, I said, this doesn't sustain, it doesn't have
06:18funding for this dollar.
06:20And at the time, I said, I didn't pay $5,70.
06:24I said, $6,20.
06:26This will converge for the fundamentals.
06:30That's what happened.
06:32From my point of view, we are with a very restrictive tax.
06:37We don't need to be in a restrictive level as we are.
06:43This is my personal opinion, which I would say is of many people today.
06:48It's not a isolated position.
06:51But, in fact, there are a different tax, but I consider it a tax that is exaggeratedly restrictive.
06:59We could already start to think, to signal, to see, to see, let's see, let's see, let's see, let's see, let's see, let's see, let's see.
07:13Let's see, let's see, let's see, let's see, let's see, let's see, let's see, let's see.
07:18Let's see, let's see, how big that need for the income.
07:25The income fix pre-AND-MEI is a equals factor.
07:28The website, okay, let's see, we will definitely listen to the income limit, you know-
07:35So, let's see, let's come into the income limit, you know-
07:39If you, that means I would say the income limit, you know, fizzle it through the goals of the income limit, it's OK.
07:41dose. So we are discussing dose, we are not discussing what she had to be in a
07:48restrictive level. I understand, but the dose of the remedy is what we are
07:53discussing. What is saudable for a country, respectfully, to be able to discuss.
07:58There are countries more developed than the Brazil where the debate is aggressive,
08:04right? The president, the president of the Banco Central, the...
08:08And here we are not in a debate, we are not in a debate. Even when it was
08:14Roberto Campos, from my part, you never heard a manifestation disrespectful. I said,
08:20well, I don't agree, I consider that I can go to there and go to there, but anyway.
08:26Now, one of the factors that the próprio Banco Central
08:29points when he talks is the fiscal issue. It's a
08:32one of the expectations, provocation by a political
08:37expansionist.
08:38The expectations are already...
08:40First of all, it's not true.
08:41Look, I'll tell you something here, that will take a minute to tell you, and you will
08:47be able to ask me.
08:49The president Lula will deliver a
08:51more inflation quadrian in the history of Brazil.
08:54In four years.
08:56In four years.
08:57In four years.
08:58The highest unemployment rate in four years in the history.
09:01The highest revenue rate in the economy since 2010.
09:06The highest revenue rate in the Gini rate in the world.
09:11The highest revenue rate in the world.
09:13in the country. The best result
09:16in four years since 2015.
09:21You pick the government Temer,
09:22the Bolsonaro and the ours.
09:25The best result fiscal
09:26of the three mandatos.
09:30So, if we start talking about data,
09:34or we'll be talking about what's in the meta,
09:36I'm talking about everything, everything, everything,
09:38everything, everything, everything, everything,
09:40everything, everything, everything, everything, everything,
09:42or, precatório, padmei,
09:44o que põe tudo na conta,
09:46vai ser o melhor resultado primário
09:48na medição do Banco Central.
09:51Nós estamos com uma meta
09:52para o ano que vem de superávit,
09:53na LDO. Eu estou tomando
09:56as providências para, pelo quarto
09:58ano consecutivo,
10:00cumprir a meta
10:01estabelecida. Então,
10:03eu não vejo, eu entendo
10:05assim que quem está perdendo dinheiro
10:08porque apostou contra o Brasil,
10:10chega até a ofender o governo.
10:12Mas são pessoas irresponsáveis,
10:16algumas, inclusive, com mau caráter.
10:18Porque falam coisas
10:19que não tem a menor procedência.
10:22Você vai jogar contra o teu país
10:23porque você errou na aposta?
10:25Não é assim que se faz.
10:27Então, eu estou muito tranquilo
10:28em relação aos indicadores
10:29que nós estamos entregando.
10:30Mas muito tranquilo.
10:32Fora tudo.
10:33Porque não são só os números,
10:36são as reformas que foram feitas
10:38no crédito,
10:39no setor de seguro,
10:41a maior reforma tributária
10:43em regime democrático,
10:45a da renda agora
10:46que está sendo concluída
10:47no Senado Federal,
10:51o plano de transformação ecológica,
10:53os projetos de economia digital.
10:56É muita coisa que foi entregue.
10:57E, dentro disso tudo,
11:00os melhores números
11:01dos últimos 15, 20 anos.
11:04Agora, eu queria que o senhor falasse um pouco
11:06na questão do fiscal,
11:07o primário certamente melhor,
11:09mas a dívida maior.
11:11Por causa do juro.
11:12De novo,
11:13a gente está falando exatamente
11:14da mesma coisa.
11:16Se o juro não estiver
11:17tão restritivo,
11:18nós não estaríamos com essa bola de neve.
11:21E, se você fizer um exercício,
11:24a gente faz exercícios.
11:26Se o juro não tivesse 15,
11:28tivesse 12,
11:30quanto tempo a mais
11:31a inflação ia levar
11:32para convergir
11:33para a meta de 3%?
11:35Você está falando de meses.
11:38Então,
11:38quando eu falo assim,
11:41entre a dose,
11:43é tudo.
11:43Então, tudo bem,
11:45tem que estar restritivo?
11:46Tem,
11:46porque ainda está
11:47resiliente algumas coisas.
11:49Então, ok.
11:49Mas será que nesse patamar...
11:52Então, eu penso que
11:53o benefício de uma inflação
11:56um pouquinho menor no futuro,
11:58diante do que nós estamos pagando
12:01para atingir esse patamar,
12:05está um pouco desconectado.
12:07Entendeu?
12:07Essa é a minha opinião.
12:08Está um pouco desconectado.
12:09Dá para obter os mesmos resultados
12:12com um traçado um pouco mais...
12:15Sabe quando você está dirigindo
12:16um carro de Fórmula 1?
12:17Então, você tem que fazer
12:19o traçado direitinho,
12:20para obter o melhor resultado
12:21no conjunto das coisas.
12:24Então, o que eu me bato muito
12:25é que o fiscal e o monetário
12:28tem que andar como um carro
12:29de Fórmula 1, sabe?
12:31Para obter o melhor resultado.
12:34Porque quando você também
12:35derruba o crescimento,
12:36você prejudica o fiscal.
12:38Quando você põe um juro
12:39acima do necessário,
12:41você prejudica a rolaje da dívida.
12:43A economia é um organismo.
12:45Você tem que sopesar
12:47cada decisão que você toma
12:48para encontrar o melhor traçado
12:51para chegar na frente
12:53dos seus concorrentes.
12:55Então, eu penso que uma correção
12:56do patamar da Selic
13:01ia fazer tudo convergir
13:03para um patamar mais adequado
13:06de crescimento, de fiscal,
13:07de tudo.
13:09O senhor aposta
13:10quando que ele começa a cortar?
13:12Não, eu não quero fazer isso
13:14porque...
13:16O que eu quero dizer é o seguinte.
13:22O Banco Central tem que ouvir
13:23todo mundo.
13:24E ouve.
13:25Ouve a SPE,
13:26ouve o mercado,
13:27ouve a Focus,
13:28ouve o ministro da Fazenda,
13:29ouve todo mundo.
13:31Eu estou aqui dizendo
13:32o que eu diria
13:33para a autoridade monetária
13:35se perguntar.
13:36Eu penso que está
13:39em um patamar
13:40exageradamente restritivo.
13:43Hoje,
13:44três meses atrás,
13:46quatro meses atrás,
13:47cinco meses atrás,
13:48a resposta podia ser diferente.
13:49Hoje,
13:50já dá para começar a pensar
13:52em mudar a trajetória.
13:54Minha opinião.
13:56Tá bom, ministro.
13:57Muito obrigada
13:58por falar com a gente aqui.
14:00Thank you very much.
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