00:00Well, Amy, let's start in the backdrop for rates, interest rates. How important were they to gold on the way
00:04up?
00:05And what's that story look like now? And what's your outlook? And how do you factor in what's going to
00:09happen with the Fed?
00:12Yeah, look, I think interest rates have been super important to gold.
00:15So we had kind of gold's first pivot was in 2022, where arguably gold should have fallen as interest rates
00:22were hiked through 2022 and 2023.
00:24But because the central banks stepped in to provide that physical support for gold, it sort of was able to
00:30stay fairly steady.
00:32And then last year, interest rates again played a big role.
00:35So central banks were buying, but the biggest swing was the exchange traded funds, which bought nearly as much gold
00:40as the central banks.
00:41And the reason that they did that was because interest rates were coming down.
00:45So if interest rates are coming down, gold is a non-yielding asset.
00:48So lower interest rates makes gold more competitive in your portfolio.
00:52So a big part of the swing in demand that we had last year was due to that cutting cycle.
00:57So that does mean, you know, if we do see a hike today or in September, then you are going
01:01to get more pressure from exchange traded funds selling gold.
01:05So I think it's very, very important.
01:07Our house view is for the Fed to stay on hold.
01:09And then there's a bit of runway before the September meeting to get more data that can give them reassurance
01:14that maybe inflation is coming under control and they can stay on hold.
01:18But of course, if there were to be a hike, I would expect gold to be under some pressure.
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