NFL Betting Insights: Decoding When to Pick Favorites

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00:00and then you get to yesterday and it's a dog day i mean the tennessee now the titans might be the

00:05worst team in the history of football okay they got a pick six a punt return and barely covered

00:11the number but they covered the number jags win short number raiders cover falcons cover you get

00:20some upsets though with big time numbers in minnesota and carolina so joe do you think these

00:25are all just kind of one week sample sizes or we are are we getting to the point in the year

00:30we're taking the points is going to be a little bit more valuable i think there's parity in the

00:34nfl and even college football you see it a lot of dogs bark each and every week and i just think

00:39that when the favorites came through last weekend that that was just one of those weeks where it

00:45just lined up appropriately right and yeah i just think that the rest of the way i think from the

00:52betting market the rest of the way if you're going to take a favorite you take a short favorite

00:56take a two or a three-point favorite like we took green bay on the road against uh uh against the

01:02pittsburgh and like i took san francisco on the giants you take a short favorite under a field goal

01:07anything that's close to a touchdown or more especially divisional games i'm inclined to take

01:13the underdog you know if it's a garbage team like the saints or titans in that aspect it really is a

01:20game-to-game type of situation you know but but at the end of the day i think there's parity any team

01:26can be had and that's even the best of them the eagles i mean detroit you name it they could be upset

01:31on any given sunday and we see it there's just the consistency yeah and the way these teams play now

01:39when you just think about the rules and you think about five six years ago and i keep going back to

01:46this they remember when when golf was with the rams and and the chiefs and they played in the

01:51coliseum and they had that epic yeah 57 54 game where was the cover to that where was the two deep

01:58safeties then you're telling me like all of a sudden we just we just oh too deep that's it so

02:05your big takeaway is not enough games and then 50 to 40 my my my takeaway is it's a copycat league

02:12okay so we saw the change about two or three years ago where teams started to run the football

02:19and we're seeing the evolution of the rushing attack and more ball control that that teams didn't want

02:25to just go up and down the field and put up 35 points some teams do but a majority don't and what

02:31does that mean that means well on every possession you typically have to be perfect basically scoring a

02:38field goal or a touchdown that means limited possessions that means underdogs for the most part

02:44are barking on each and every sunday because of the ability unless it's a short number and that and

02:52that's from that's the way that's my takeaway this is this is this is for me i again everyone has their

02:58own method yeah what's your but i just think i think if you can if you are if you are a size better

03:06in the nfl take the time to know what the games are before you know what the numbers are and think

03:13about either you can do what you make it i don't even get to do what you'd make it what you believe it

03:19will be and and try and work off of that right i think you get i think you get so much occasionally

03:28joe and and listen i i know but you'll you'll get the um oh why is this this or oh it's so light and

03:37it's like well what if you wrote it down and you had a guess of what it would be and you'd have

03:42you'd have something we do each of every week like i just green bay carolina yeah i was come on

03:4913 and a half that is a lot now listen similarly i took 14 and a half with new orleans i'm not saying

03:55it's it's foolproof right sometimes teams get smashed but instead of it whoa 13 and a half or

04:03or have a baseline going in green bay is going to win by a million and then you're laying the number

04:08regardless of it i think that that works a little bit better and they're all the perception is

04:12they're great dominate