00:00Alan, just walk us through how realistic and how probable Le Corneau's chances are of striking a deal.
00:08I really would hesitate to put a number on, you know, his chances.
00:12It doesn't look great, I guess, let me put it that way.
00:16But that said, you know, in politics, you really never know.
00:19I mean, what he's done today, so today he's got these discussions, as you mentioned.
00:23He's meeting with the National Rally right now at 10.30 Paris time.
00:26He meets with the Socialists and then he meets with the Greens and the Communists later today.
00:30And this is sort of the last chance he has to talk to these people before he tries to actually form a government over the weekend and before Parliament really gets underway next week.
00:38It actually started this week, but sort of the main discussion parts for Parliament are next week.
00:43And this morning, just before those talks started, he said that the government would not use the system that exists in France, which allows you to push through a bill without a vote if you need to.
00:54And it's not a concession in and of itself.
00:57It's an administrative tool.
00:59But by doing so, it does, in theory, empower Parliament to have a lot more control over what is actually in the budget at the end of the day.
01:06Whether that's enough to change things, it's really too early to tell.
01:09We'll see, I guess, a bit better after these discussions today.
01:12But even then, I'm not sure that we'll really know.
01:15Alan, what happens to the budget?
01:18We could potentially be heading for a 6% budget deficit.
01:21Walk us through kind of what does the next few months look like potentially for this French budget and the possibility of progress?
01:28So, at best, it means that there won't be an immediate – because the threat against Le Corneau is that he will immediately be censured, be – lose a no-confidence vote as soon as next week, possibly, and be pushed out of office.
01:44So, at best, what will happen is he will not be pushed out of office, and there will be a big, really noisy and sort of unsteady debate in Parliament over this budget.
01:56How you get to some sort of actual majority in both the National Assembly and the Senate on a budget is really difficult to see, actually.
02:06And this all has to be done in a pretty tight time frame.
02:10As you said, you know, the French's budget needs to be done by December 31st, and so that – we're actually already in October, so it's really hard to see how this happens.
02:17Now, that said, you know, because you and I were having this discussion earlier today, if there is no budget in France by the end of the year, it doesn't mean that the government shuts down.
02:25What it does mean is that France would have to pass what's called a special law to roll over the 2025 budget into 2026.
02:31It's what happened last year.
02:32And so there is – it's not going to be like the U.S.
02:35There won't be a government shutdown, but we are in for, I would say, at best, a very confusing and noisy debate over this budget.
02:42And whether it actually leaves anywhere is hard to tell.
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