Dimon Says Recession Possible, US Shutdown a 'Bad Idea'

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00:00Where do you think we are in that bull market? Is there any complacency there? Is it underpinned

00:05by rational factors? Is there more momentum? Yeah, you know, look, we're in a bull market.

00:10It's been clear asset prices are high, credit spreads are low, consumers still OK, the consumer

00:15has jobs. Remember, jobs, jobs, jobs are what usually starts to force people to cut back and

00:20change things and consumers spend less and companies cut back. So far, so good. There are

00:25a lot of issues out there that, you know, the economy's got to deal with from all the

00:29geopolitical stuff. Maybe that'll sort out well. What's going to happen to inflation?

00:33I'm a little more nervous about inflation not coming down like people expect. That might

00:37be a surprise. On the other hand, there's a lot of spending. There's a lot of government

00:41spending, which is inflationary, too, by the way. And so, look, I don't know. I hope for

00:46the best, plan for the worst. And you're not worried about a recession in 2026 for the U.S.?

00:51You made that clear. I think it could happen in 2026. I just I'm not worried about it as

00:55a different statement. We'll deal with it. We'll serve our clients. We'll navigate through

00:59it. A lot of us have been through them before. You don't wish it because, you know, certain

01:03people get hurt. But but it could happen in 2026.

01:05We're still, of course, in the U.S. government shutdown.

01:07But I do think there are positives like deregulation of real positive, which also helps animal spirits

01:12to the positive. And, you know, in the one big, beautiful bill, there's also more stimulus

01:16that has positives for the economy, but maybe negatives for inflation. So how it all sorts

01:21out, we'll we'll see. Markets are looking through the U.S. government shutdown. Is

01:25there a period of time if this shutdown continues where markets start to wake up and become concerned?

01:31I don't think so. I look, I don't like shutdowns. I think it's just a bad idea. And I don't

01:36care what the Democrats or Republicans say. It's a bad idea. It's not a way to run a railroad.

01:41I don't think it's critical. We've had I forgot the number four or five or six. You know,

01:45one of them went for 35 days. I'm not sure anyone really affected the economy, the market

01:50in a real way. You mentioned inflation. You said you're

01:53a little bit more concerned about inflation than maybe some others. Markets pricing in

01:57about 100 basis points of cuts between now and this time next year from the Fed. Does

02:01that therefore seem reasonable to you or markets are over their skis in pricing?

02:06I think, you know, markets have to make a forecast. I want to point out that forecasts have almost

02:11always been wrong. And the Fed's been wrong, too. So it isn't like their forecast is, you

02:17know, going to be accurate. If inflation does it goes up, starts ticking up for whatever

02:22reason, and it might, you know, it's gonna be hard to do 100 points. They might do some,

02:26you know, and then they have the battle, you know, the give and take of if unemployment starts

02:30going up, well, obviously, they're going to do some. So we'll see.