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00:00Given where we are in the shutdown, can the Fed properly do its job at the end of the month
00:04in these circumstances where we may not have enough data?
00:07I don't think the data over a few weeks should really be that determinative to the Fed.
00:14I mean, that sort of over-grandizes what the impact or importance of that data is,
00:20particularly with the sampling errors that's intrinsic in how that data is produced and compiled for the Fed.
00:26I just think that's a bit of a misplaced warrior concern.
00:31Do you worry about the shutdown, full stop?
00:34Look, the shutdown is symbolic of a different problem,
00:37which is the dysfunction between the Republican and Democratic Party
00:40on resolving issues with respect to the budget of the United States of America.
00:47And to be clear, both parties today are guilty of just profligate spending.
00:52You know, as I said at the start, the U.S. fiscal situation is that of a nation
00:58that's trying to work its way out of a recession.
01:01Except the reality is we're multiple years into a very high period of growth.
01:07This is where we should be running a deficit of, you know, in the Clinton days we ran a surplus
01:11at this point in the business cycle.
01:14We're now running a deficit of close to 6% to 7%, depending upon where a number of things land.
01:21That is just completely irresponsible.
01:25And so what's amazing is we're having a shutdown debate over, in the scheme of things,
01:28a relatively small amount of money.
01:31And neither party is stepping up the plate to deal with or grapple with the reality
01:35that the United States needs to endure a fair amount of fiscal reform
01:40to be on a path for long-term sustainability.
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