Fed's Collins Advocates 'Actively Patient' Policy Approach

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00:00Clearly, uncertainty remains elevated. Pulling together the many types of data and the analyses

00:05that my staff and I examine, my expectation is that tariffs will boost inflation over the second

00:11half of this year. While the extent of the increase remains uncertain, it seems likely

00:16the core PCE inflation will be in the vicinity of 3% perhaps by year's end before resuming its

00:23decline. And concerning the labor market side of our mandate, tariffs should slow demand and

00:29hiring, but not necessarily by a large amount. Of course, there are risks to this baseline outlook

00:36and I do not rule out scenarios with larger or more persistent effects from tariffs and ongoing

00:42economic uncertainty, or I don't rule out scenarios in which the effects are more muted. Calibrating

00:50appropriate policy in this context is challenging, but continued overall solid economic conditions

00:57enable the Fed to take the time to carefully assess the wide range of incoming data. So in my view,

01:05what I call an actively patient approach to monetary policy remains appropriate at this time.