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  • 3 months ago
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00:00Well, we're truly in the countdown moments now. I'm doing this on Tuesday morning. Trade deadline
00:06is Thursday. We're continuing to play what I hear and what I think as the deadline moves closer.
00:14And look, the team that had everything we thought, the defending champions, think about what they did
00:19in the offseason, the Los Angeles Dodgers. They signed Michael Conforto, Haesung Kim, Roki Sasaki,
00:25Tanner Scott, Blake Snell, and Kirby Yates. They re-signed to keep from their championship team
00:31to Oscar Hernandez, Quique Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, and Blake Trident. What did that do?
00:36That took their payroll over $400 million. It took their luxury tax bill. It will be over $160 million.
00:44I mean, they're flush. The Shohei Ohtani contract, how much money is deferred and how much money he
00:49brings in as an attraction allowed them to be bold. And the reason they wanted to be bold is
00:56Andrew Friedman, their head of baseball operations, really hates this time of year feeling hostage to
01:02having to do things. And he wanted to try to make the roster as bulletproof as possible. But you know
01:08what? You can't make a roster bulletproof in baseball. There's just too much withering effect.
01:12There's too much skill. And guys sometimes don't perform up to the level against that skill.
01:17And the Dodgers have taken on some water, right? Michael Conforto, one of those ads,
01:22has not played well this year. They have some needs in the outfield now. Overall,
01:27the outfield does not perform well. Mookie Betts has been, how about this,
01:30if I would have told you this in spring training, Mookie Betts has been a much better shortstop than
01:33hitter. He's handled the new position well. He has not hit. Tommy Edmund, after a great start,
01:38hasn't really hit that great for the Dodgers. But the question is really around pitching,
01:43where they've had so many injuries. 424 ERA, it's 23rd in the major leagues.
01:48Their bullpen ERA is 24th. But the bigger issue is they've thrown almost 40 more innings out of
01:54that bullpen than any other team in the major leagues. Now, some of that is by design. Shohei
02:00Otani is being slow played towards October to be built up. So he's been used as an opener. But in
02:06general, they've had so many injuries. And then they've had not great performance. Two of the guys they
02:11thought were bulking up this bullpen. Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates have not pitched particularly
02:16well. Blake Trinan, who they love, just came back and he always pitches well pretty much
02:21when he pitches. But he's hurt all the time. So there's a real question about, you know,
02:28what could be done there. I think they're going to need a bullpen guy. They're looking for a bullpen
02:32guy. One thing to keep in mind, they thought they had built up so much in the offseason that they'd be
02:39the weird team that would be full contenders now and be able to sell because they have depth.
02:44And they might actually end up doing that because Blake Snell is very close to returning from his
02:49injury. They believe they're going to get Roki Sasaki back in September, late August, September.
02:57They believe with their bullpen, they're getting much closer to guys like Michael Kopech in the next
03:03few weeks. Brosdor, Gratterall after that. And they can move Emmett Sheehan high-end stuff into
03:09the bullpen. And that they might have Dustin May to trade in this market. Now, Dustin May has a 485
03:16ERA. But the desperation is so great for starting pitching out there that I think that they might
03:22actually be able to use him as part of a trade, maybe send him to a contender who needs some innings
03:26and wants to try to play his high side. But it's another time to show that you can have everything.
03:33The Dodgers, who we thought had everything in the offseason when they went into overkill mode,
03:39definitely need a relief pitcher and probably going to try to get an outfield bat before this is all
03:43done. Item number two, the Rays play to their reputation. They're the buyer-seller of this
03:49marketplace. On Monday, they both traded a catcher, Danny Jansen, and acquired a catcher, Nick Fortes.
03:58At the time of the trade, they were 53-53. They then went out and beat the Yankees. I think they
04:04like Fortes because they see him probably as somewhat overall equal value to Jansen. And they
04:09get three and a half years of control. Jansen was signed through next year. So they don't, you know,
04:15the greater control, lower price. Rays are always doing that. Here's what I keep in mind about the
04:21Rays. Their owner, Stu Sternberg, has an agreement to sell the team. Nothing's ever guaranteed until
04:27all the I's are dotted, et cetera. All the owners, other owners put their thumb up. But the expectation
04:33is this team is getting sold and Sternberg is leaving. And there is a desire for a last hurrah season
04:39there, that they want to kind of go for it. But they're the Rays. What does go for it mean? Well,
04:45they're still talking to teams. Lots of them are interested in their first baseman, Yandy Diaz.
04:50I do not expect him to get traded. You know, everyone is available, but it's a very high price.
04:56And the Rays usually have a standard that if they give an undervalued contract, long-term contract to
05:01someone, they keep them as a sign of faith because the players signed the contract with them.
05:06Now, somebody who did that earlier in his career, Brandon Lau, still has about a $12.5 million
05:10option for next year. He's in play. The problem is he's on the injured list. It's a contract that
05:16they could take on for next year without killing them, whoever the new owner is. So they put a high
05:21price on him. The Mets were very interested in Brandon Lau last offseason. I heard their interest
05:26last spring trade deadline. I hear they're interested in him again today. So I think that, you know,
05:32he's in play. The Astros are looking for lefty hitters. Complicating the issue for the Rays is
05:42Shane McClanahan hasn't pitched all year, and he keeps having setbacks. He recently had a bicep
05:48setback. He had Tommy John surgery in August of 23. And, you know, they want to maybe trade Zach Littell,
05:54who's in his walkie route. That could still happen. They're getting lots of calls on Taj Bradley and
05:59Shane Boz, two high-end stuff guys whose stuff hasn't fully translated in the major leagues.
06:04But it's harder to go for it and trade a starter if they're not sure when McClanahan's going to come
06:08back. And keep this in mind, like, how long has it been since Shane McClanahan pitched?
06:14Would you believe that Wanda Franco, their shortstop who had to go on the ineligible list
06:20because of his off-the-field legal problems, has played a game more recently for the Tampa Bay
06:27Rays, August 12, 2023. Then McClanahan has started a game for them, August 2, 2023. And just a little
06:36New York angle here on that Fortes trade. The Marlins have been playing three catchers this year,
06:41Liam Hendricks, Fortes, and Augustin Ramirez, who was the key guy that the Marlins got for Jazz Chisholm.
06:48This is clearly a sign that Ramirez, who's a bat-first catcher, is going to probably get a lot
06:54more chances. He started a lot this year, but it had been broken pretty much into thirds.
06:58This is a sign that the rest of the year, the Marlins, who have played much better this year,
07:02are going to kind of try to use Ramirez more and see just how good a catcher he is.
07:07Here's what I'll finish up on. The Rangers had been one of the hottest teams in baseball. They lost on
07:11Monday, but they ended the weekend having won six in a row, nine out of ten. It took them to a season
07:17high, six over, 500. They got tied for the final wild card spot. They got within four games of the
07:22first place Astros. Them and the Mariners are trying to challenge the Astros in the AL West.
07:28But even before then, I had heard that all things being equal, that Rangers head of baseball operations,
07:35Chris Young, wanted to go for it this year. And that's only because he's competitive and he thinks
07:41he has a good team. And both of those things are true. But Bruce Bochy is in the final year of his
07:46contract. He's 70. He's a guy who's had health problems along the way. There's a strong sense
07:53that this is going to be the final season for Bochy, a Hall of Fame bound manager who's won four
07:59championships, including one with the Rangers in 2023. And so I texted Chris Young and I'll read
08:06the quote back. He said to me, I said, I heard you're going for it essentially, no matter what,
08:12because of Bochy, you want to honor him. And he said, I have great admiration and respect for Bochy
08:16and want to do our best to give him a chance to win again. So I think one of the worst kept
08:21secrets in baseball is Skip Schumacher, who had been the Marlins manager in 2022 and 23,
08:27actually won a manager of the year award there. He was hired as a special assistant to Chris Young
08:32in the offseason. The feeling is he's locked and loaded and ready to go as the manager of the team
08:38next year if and when Bochy leaves and they're going for a Texas. What do they need? They want
08:44a bat, preferably right-handed, and they want some relief help and they want to take a shot
08:49at one more time winning for Bruce Bochy.
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