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Myanmar’s military regime has announced plans to hold elections on December 28th but critics say any vote under the junta’s control would be neither free nor fair. ASEAN now faces a test: Should it send election observers, risking legitimising the regime? On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with Debbie Stothard, founder of the democracy advocacy group, Alternative ASEAN Network on Burma, and Khin Ohmar, Chairperson of Progressive Voice, which is a rights-based policy research and advocacy organisation rooted in civil society.
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00:00Hello and good evening. I'm Melissa Idris. Welcome to Consider This. This is the show where we want
00:26you to consider and then reconsider what you know of the news of the day. Myanmar's military regime
00:31announced plans to hold elections on December 28th. It's the first since the February 2021 coup
00:38that toppled Aung San Suu Kyi's government. But critics say that any vote under the junta's
00:44control will neither be free nor fair. So ASEAN now faces a test. Should it send election observers
00:52and risk legitimizing the regime or should it stay away and risk losing whatever leverage it might
01:00have left? So the question is there's a choice. What does either choice mean for ASEAN's credibility
01:07for Myanmar's men, women and youth still fighting for democracy and survival? So tonight we're going
01:13to discuss this and more. On the show with me I have Debbie Storad who is the founder of the
01:18democracy and advocacy group Alternative ASEAN Network on Burma. And I also have Kin Omam who is
01:26the chairperson of Progressive Voice which is a rights-based policy research and advocacy organization
01:33rooted in civil society. Both of you welcome to the show. Thank you so much Kin for being here with me
01:38and Debbie as well back on the shows. Thank you both. So I want to maybe begin our conversation by
01:45grounding the situation in the current. Can you maybe begin with giving us a brief overview of the
01:52current situation in Myanmar now? Especially for I think particularly with a focus on women and youth
01:59and young people there. How are they surviving and continuing this fight? Well thank you so much for
02:06having me on this show. So first I would like to say is that Myanmar is actually going through a
02:11homegrown political transformation led by the young people. Women, youth, LGBTIQ. It's a very exciting time at the same time for all of the Myanmar people from different generations from the past like us.
02:26But it's also an intergenerational movement where you see that you know long struggle to topple or dismantle this military dictatorship one generation after another.
02:37Now has reached to the point without international support of course but the people themselves on the ground really got to the point of shaking up this military about 70 years old you know in its history it has never shaken up before to the point that it's losing like drastically on the ground.
02:57Now the Myanmar military haunt now has more than only 20% of the effective control over the whole Myanmar. So that means like you know over 70% is really in hands of the people where we call what we call is the federal democracy framework where the bottom up people let governance are being set up judiciary parliamentary legislation.
03:26It's in the country legislature you know executive it's in pretty much every part of the country right now even like in Mandalay the second largest city there is an interim executive arrangement is there.
03:38So it's a time where the world especially the ASEAN really needs to recognize and acknowledge that Myanmar people's effort after four years is leading to a sustainable peaceful solution not only for Myanmar but also for the people of ASEAN which is the people led solution.
03:57And I especially when ASEAN last year said they will support Myanmar so we are actually advocating to the ASEAN it's like it has to be not only Myanmar led and Myanmar owned it has to be Myanmar people led and Myanmar people owned because the process itself on the ground is people led and people owned already.
04:15Wonderful. Debbie when we spoke earlier this year I remember I think I interviewed you for the in February when we talked about you know marking the anniversary of the coup can you said to me if I recall correctly you said that 2025 is really a pivotal year.
04:35Not just because Malaysia is a pivotal year not just because Malaysia is really invested in trying to end the Myanmar crisis but you said all the forces all the factors and patterns and trends are pointing to the direction that this could be the year the war ends.
04:50Is that is that how you see it now that we are you know 10 months into this year do you think that this is still a pivotal year.
04:59Well we are following a combination of Myanmar and Malaysia time so I think the the end of the war is delayed but I think also the end of the war is going to be determined but what by what ASEAN does.
05:13And it has been really concerning that ASEAN has been divided that some of the countries like Thailand have been actively supporting the military this illegal junta and that's really delayed the process.
05:25So what we are seeing on the ground is women and young people particularly really being the engine of democratic growth on the ground local administrations been set up even local courts and local law enforcement being established and the military junta can't enter those areas unless they launch airstrikes and aerial attacks and artillery attacks.
05:48That's why we are seeing as Kinoma has been saying seven airstrikes a day and some of them are also targeting supply lines humanitarian aid going into certain areas.
06:01So what is happening is this junta is losing.
06:05They lost an election didn't like the results and started a coup and now they are still losing on the ground and they're trying to organize a sham election that starts on December 28th in or as a last ditch attempt to try and get back some legitimacy so they can go back to business as usual.
06:24It's hard to go back to business as usual when the military junta has spent an estimated $5 billion last year bombing civilians and attacking them but at the same time allowing the price of rice to go up by 400% within four years.
06:42So you know if we if ASEAN really cared about ordinary people of Myanmar and ASEAN they wouldn't be tolerating this and and with this sham election you know you are you got to ask yourself why are they holding elections on December the 28th in fact it's that that's the phase one they can't actually hold elections simultaneously in the different parts of the country.
07:07And at this point it looks like they will only have voting in one third of the townships so you're going to win an election on one third of the townships two thirds of the country the majority of the country is not going to vote and they're just trying to get some semblance of of credibility so that China and other countries would say okay okay now we recognize you.
07:30But it's very clear even from an ASEAN point of view where the key performance indicator is a reduction of violence the junta has not delivered a reduction of violence and what we're concerned about is that they will continue to try to wipe out all these places where they can't have elections in order to justify themselves.
07:52So we might actually see a rise in military attacks on civilian targets.
07:58So I think our foreign minister of Malaysia got a little taste of how how dangerous it is to go and engage with the junta.
08:11They literally put words in his mouth that he they announced that he that Malaysia agreed to send observer teams to this sham election.
08:20Which he's denied right yes which he has denied so can you imagine even if they send one team of even if they send just you and me Melissa as the election observer team they would them and we said no we didn't see any free and fair elections the junta will announce oh Malaysia agrees that's a free and fair election that's basically what it is.
08:41They have they have they're so desperate that they're actually willing to lie that our foreign minister said something that he did not say.
08:49What do you think about the conditions under which these elections will take place.
08:55Are you concerned as Debbie is about the possibility of maybe renewed violence in the lead up to it.
09:02It's rather I would say increased violence increased because like Debbie said two-third of the country is not under their control but they still control the sky where they will bomb the civilians which they've been doing that pretty much non-stop.
09:19Area bombing area bombing area bombings by using the M16 fighter jets sorry fighter jets drones that they bought from China as well as like paramotor like you know paraglide power gliding.
09:34Yes it's a it's a it's a very low technically you can actually buy on Alibaba yeah it's a you can fly at a very low thousand feet one thousand feet for a few kilo about 20 or 30 kilometers 40 kilometers but it allows two people to be on this vehicle one flies the paramotor and the other one drops bombs and they've been very lethal because they can fly so low they can actually see the human beings that they're trying to kill.
10:01I thought there was sanctions on the the aviation fuel some countries have but then the whole chain there is no international coordinated targeted sanctions to really cut off all of that so that's something also we've been calling on the more like a comprehensive arms embargo that includes the you know all of these chains not only the aviation fuel but of course it's very difficult because you as you you know
10:31the the the the the UN UN Security Council actually is bullied by China and Russia so I think that that is the very challenge that we have but coming back to the point that you ask about the the the violence
10:44you know the violence in the violence in the violence in the areas under the military control the military definitely you know will show off to the world while they use the intimidation and threat to the people to just you know like go to the post station or however the the method that they're going to do and they will show that they have held the election but the other areas where people absolutely absolutely they have no got the the military hunter has no control the
11:14the people will not of course vote in fact you can even see now like in the Myanmar media you know when you look at social media you will see that people in the we call as liberated areas where the people that governance
11:27administrations are all set up there are also you know like police and securities all there and you see the people are actually holding signs and saying this generation you know it's not for us
11:40okay we don't accept that so that's what the people that's okay and I have to say that those population under the military control they also don't accept I mean that's the reason last four years ago the city's population are the one who rose up right away in a few hours of the military school attempt on February 1 in 2021
12:00and of course the people will not vote for this military but they have no choice at this point if you know they are their doors are knocked by the people with against what are they going to do so I think like for those in the city areas under the military control for the for them they have no choice and I think this is something among our Myanmar people we understand and our people are at the risk under the military control area but
12:30and then the other areas everybody is saying no so ASEAN's dilemma of sending election observers to Myanmar what are the arguments for what is on the table at the moment help me think through what the ASEAN foreign ministers have to contend with because I'm sure on one hand they think well this is a rare chance to gather first hand evidence be there on the ground as a
13:00post being shut out but if they do attend they might legitimize the elections so how do you see it well the thing is there is a complete risk for them if they actually go or send an observer first of all is I think it's just the fact itself that they should really look into and you know the fact itself speaks that this is a sham election but not only the sham election the illegal hunter doesn't even have any legality
13:28they lacks legality and legitimacy to hold anything that we can call as election but then at the same time it's very clear when they said they will hold the election they are bombing the people
13:38so what is there for the ASEAN to observe will they go and observe when the you know areas where the bombs are coming onto the people or will they go and observe the small polling stations where everybody is already everything is stage managed and controlled to see what right
13:55so I think the legality side itself the ASEAN leaders should be very clear even from the legal perspective there is nothing to observe
14:05I think I think if there was any hope that this sham election might be the opening of a small opening of a door to some kind of reform and to ease the ease the violence
14:17firstly we have to note that the State Administrative Council the SAC has now transformed itself into the State Security and Peace Commission and as they did this transition their membership has basically gotten rid of almost all the civilians
14:41there used to be civilians there used to be civilians in the State Administrative Council the earlier name of this junta but now there is only one lone civilian the rest of them are all serving or retired military
14:56it's indicating a hardening of the junta not a softening of the process
15:03we've also seen the military bring in a law to permit foreign security companies to operate in Myanmar and they've actually given licenses to security companies from China
15:17and it is thought that this will be used as a backup for the military because every in every place that they're going to have the voting it's going to be highly militarized
15:28right and they've actually earlier this year granted issued permission to political parties to carry in fact they encourage political parties to carry weapons
15:40so the parties that are allowed to compete in this election represent less than 10% of seats won in 2020 election
15:50and many of them are many of the new parties that have been allowed to be to be legalized are actually former militias who know how to use weapons
16:02and not for just for defensive purposes so we're seeing a potential for even more violence to happen on the ground
16:11and I think also in the previous elections the people had the right to spoil their vote because they're using paper ballots
16:19but now they're being forced to use these electronic ballot machines that have been adapted from India
16:27and there's not been any transparency about how the hardware and the software works
16:33so it's digital voting
16:35yes it's um it's it's not quite digital it's uh it's a machine
16:40it's a machine where you enter in your vote
16:42yes and so you don't take it on a paper ballot where you count the paper ballots
16:46exactly and you can't spoil your vote because in the past people used to just spoil their vote as a protest vote
16:52but now they can't do that so I think you know it it's all pointing to actually a hardening of the situation
16:59not a softening when if if the the the so-called cabinet suddenly kicks out almost all the civilians
17:06only one allowed only one lone civilian and everybody is ex-military or serving military
17:12it's telling you this is not going to be good this is actually going to be bad
17:16because they are expecting that they will have to use even more lethal violence
17:22and if you time an election on December the 28th
17:26what does the timing speak to you?
17:28usually the the elections are held in the first week of November
17:33and they've pushed it to a time where they are they are gambling on the fact that most of the world will be on year-end holidays
17:42so the attention will be diverted
17:44yes so that they'll get away with whatever they are planning to do
17:48so I think we we do need to be very very careful that Malaysia and ASEAN countries who want the conflict to reduce
17:58we need to be very careful that they don't accidentally get sucked in
18:02because all they have to do is turn up and even if they said anything disapproving
18:07their voices will be drowned out by the military junta
18:10that was one thing that I one of the considerations was what if ASEAN decided to take a middle path right
18:16because ASEAN centrality and instead of sending like a full election observer team
18:22they send you know like a small fact finding mission or technical team to gather evidence
18:28which is still presence on the ground
18:30is that something you're concerned about that might legitimize any result?
18:35I think it is pretty clear that the junta will use any presence will manipulate and exploit every presence
18:41if ASEAN was really serious about reducing the conflict
18:45why is it that ASEAN doesn't have an arms embargo on this military junta?
18:49ASEAN doesn't have an arms embargo?
18:51no it doesn't
18:53no sanctions at all
18:55it doesn't even have any aviation fuel sanctions
18:57despite knowledge that schools, mosques, places of worship, hospitals, clinics are being targeted with aerial attacks
19:07in fact aviation fuel despite the fact that most of the some other countries are actually have banned aviation fuel to Myanmar
19:19aviation fuel is being transcript to Singapore and through Vietnam
19:23so and we are seeing Thailand and Malaysia deporting Myanmar nationals who are forcibly conscripted by the military junta
19:35in July alone there was one incident where Thailand handed over 162 young people to the military junta
19:45Myanmar nationals who were so called illegal
19:49and out of the 162, 150 were immediately drafted forcibly into the military
19:55so the transnational repression continues
19:59it does
20:01even amongst the ASEAN states
20:03Kin, this ASEAN summit, Malaysia is set to hand over chair
20:07so we are wrapping up the year as ASEAN chair
20:11handing it over to the Philippines
20:13what's your sense of how much ASEAN will continue to push for a reduction in the crisis
20:23in the violence
20:25Malaysia
20:27somebody has said this to me before
20:29just because Malaysia cedes chairmanship
20:31we don't cede leadership
20:33but what do you think will happen in the coming months as we hand over the chairmanship?
20:37what the way that I see is before Malaysia hand over to the Philippines
20:43about two months
20:45there are still substantial concrete action can be done
20:49especially with the coming summit
20:51because I think for all of us the current concern is
20:55will the ASEAN remain the position that they took in July
20:59which is the foreign ministers led by Malaysia foreign ministers saying that this election is not a goal
21:09it's not going to resolve Myanmar's problems
21:11they are on the right path
21:13we even actually as a civil society issue an open letter acknowledging that position
21:19but we also call on the ASEAN leadership to remain with that
21:25maintain that position
21:27it's because at the summit if they change it
21:31including like what if they think about
21:33oh let's send the observer
21:35I think that is going to make
21:37any of the changing position of the ASEAN
21:41that will be seen in favour of the military
21:43or where the military see as an entry point to manipulate
21:49then ASEAN has no more leverage by that
21:53because right now they still have it
21:55and that's also we have to remember that regardless of whether ASEAN or any ASEAN countries
22:01will send the observer or not
22:03China will be there
22:05let China do it
22:07and say it as China wants to say
22:09because they are already very clear
22:11China is going to recognise no matter what
22:13whatever the post-Xiaan election regime is
22:17so I think it's important that ASEAN don't get their hands dirty in that
22:25and be very clear with that saying
22:27what they have already said
22:29so maintain with the position of
22:31this election is not to be recognised
22:33but at the same time
22:35Malaysia
22:37I have to say though
22:39Malaysia has gone
22:41taken higher part than the previous
22:43previous
22:45chairs in the last two years
22:47because I see for example the
22:49Prime Minister of Malaysia
22:51met with the legitimate government of Myanmar
22:53the National Unity Government
22:55the Prime Minister of National Unity Government
22:57Myanmar Government
22:59he met with him
23:01at least online because Myanmar
23:03Prime Minister is in the country
23:05and cannot travel out
23:07because the capital
23:09and the airports
23:11are under siege by the military
23:13but then also the
23:15Prime Minister Anwar didn't meet
23:17the criminal
23:19commander-in-chief Mayang Lai in KL
23:21which also gives us the signal
23:23a good sign
23:25that Malaysia still
23:27doesn't recognise the Haunta as
23:29the official state authorities of Myanmar
23:31which is good already
23:33I think in the next two months
23:35Malaysia has to be very careful
23:37to keep that legacy that they already built
23:41but making sure that this position
23:45at the summit even go further
23:47another higher step saying that
23:49this election is in fact
23:51out of the being constitutional and everything
23:55I mean the reality is
23:57there are no real democratic
23:59oppositions to be running
24:01in this election right
24:03but then the military itself
24:05this illegal Haunta doesn't have
24:07like I said no legal standards
24:09and those political parties
24:11that the military allowed to be run
24:13they are like Debbie said
24:15these are actually drug lords
24:17honestly scam business leaders
24:19and mafia people
24:23so what are we seeing
24:25what is the outlook after January and February
24:27whatever the post election
24:29resulted regime or the outcome
24:31is going to be with the
24:33murderous military
24:35international criminals
24:36and the other criminals
24:37who actually produce drugs
24:39and do scums
24:40and do the human trafficking
24:41is that what we want to see
24:43is that what ASEAN wants to bring them
24:45into the summit
24:47like allowing themselves completely
24:49you know staying not only by dirt
24:51but also by blood
24:53where the hope
24:57will continue their struggle
24:59to get rid of this military
25:01no matter ASEAN is on board
25:03and support them or not
25:05we have a couple of minutes left
25:07Debbie did you want to add anything
25:09to that in the final months of the year
25:11as Malaysia is chair of ASEAN
25:13Malaysia must continue to exercise leadership
25:15and a principle leadership
25:17in handling the Myanmar situation
25:19it's about ASEAN centrality
25:21it's about ASEAN leadership
25:23and not wimping out
25:25and trying to compromise with everybody
25:27and I think in this case also
25:29there is the problem
25:31and the challenge of the UN
25:33sorry of an ASEAN special envoy
25:35changing every year
25:37that's not going to be useful
25:39we need to have someone designated
25:43for at least three years
25:45to be able to get the work done
25:47and I think
25:49the fact that we have an ASEAN
25:51envoy on Myanmar
25:53that changes every year
25:55is a disturbing sign of lack of trust
25:57amongst the ASEAN members
25:59so I think we do need to convince
26:03even the Philippines
26:05to actually trust Malaysia enough
26:09to ensure that the current special envoy
26:13can actually work for at least
26:15another year or two
26:17to try and get this problem solved
26:19otherwise this is going
26:21we're going to be in our wheelchairs
26:23talking to you about Myanmar
26:25years from now
26:27and that's not what we want
26:29we see young people and women
26:31in the country
26:33actually despite all the fighting
26:35get together to draft economic policies
26:39for the future
26:41400 economic policies
26:43over 8 sectors
26:45they actually have a comprehensive
26:47blueprint to rebuild their country
26:49and then when you look at ASEAN
26:51you're going
26:53why are you backing the losers
26:54who are actually causing you problems
26:56how many ASEAN citizens
26:58have been affected by these
27:00scam centers
27:01they're not there from the resistance
27:03they are actually there
27:04because they are licensed
27:05by the military junta
27:06so and these people
27:08are going to be the parliamentarians
27:10are you joking
27:12like you know
27:13ASEAN please
27:14just wake up
27:15get a reality
27:16wake up to the reality
27:18you know
27:19you're backing the wrong horse here
27:21you actually need to understand
27:22you can't be neutral
27:24in this situation
27:25being neutral
27:26for over four years
27:27on Myanmar
27:28has brought us to this mess
27:30yeah
27:31both of you
27:32thank you so much
27:33for bringing your insights
27:34and your passion
27:35to the show today
27:37I really appreciate both of you
27:38thank you for having us
27:40that's all the time we have for you
27:42on this episode of consider this
27:43I'm Melissa Idris
27:44signing off for the evening
27:45thank you so much for watching
27:46good night
27:47thank you
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