- 2 weeks ago
In this hard-hitting EXCLUSIVE, Air Vice Marshal Kapil Kak (Retd) shares his expert insights on the complex geopolitics surrounding Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK). Can India reclaim PoK while navigating the growing influence of China in the region? What are the strategic challenges posed by China’s presence and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)?
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00So in our special series In Focus, I have with me today Air Vice Marshal Kapil Kaak.
00:14He is a retired officer of the Indian Air Force with over 35 years of service,
00:21including active participation in the 1965 and 1971 Indo-Park wars.
00:27He has also represented India in a number of conferences on international security and strategic issues.
00:33And he has also been associated with initiatives on India Park peace process and conflict resolution in Jammu and Kashmir.
00:39Thank you so much Air Vice Marshal Kapil Kaak for joining here at Asianet News.
00:45And looking forward for your perspective on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and the issues plaguing the region.
00:51Thank you Hina and such a pleasure and a delight to be on Asianet News Services.
00:57This is an important issue that you have raised and I am sure there will be a lot of interest in what you have to say on an issue which has for the time being at least been curtailed.
01:13There has been some agreement but as we will discuss this is not the end of the story.
01:18I want to take one by one political and the security situation in POK which is an inalienable part of India, an integral part of India.
01:28So politically speaking, of course earlier in the month we saw protests happening in POK but yesterday what we saw is that PMNL withdrew the support from the ruling so-called puppet government in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir which is being run by Islamabad.
01:44Now talk to me a little bit about your assessment of governance situation in POK because in 2022 there was a change after Imran Khan was ousted but since 2022 we have not seen much happening in the political discourse.
01:59Though there have been protests happening but what do you see is the future of the governance from Pakistan side in the POK which is an integral part of India.
02:07A couple of things are important. First and foremost the protests that we talk about I link it with the question that you have raised why there is not much political activity and actually this may be a mask for a deeper discontent
02:27within the people of Pakistan within the people of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Economic deprivation, the denial of certain rights, problems of education, health care, power, not meeting basic needs of the people of course raises.
02:47It is not happening in Pakistan. Obviously there is much more discontent in POK than there is in the rest of Pakistan or maybe the ruling dispensation in Islamabad and also the main actor behind the government which is not behind the government but ahead of the government is that in Rawalpindi, the Pakistan army.
03:12The situation in POK, the situation in POK, you know, let me sort of contextualize it. First and foremost there is a disjunction. The disjunction is POK is supposed to be, it's called Azad Kashmir. It's supposed to be Azad. It has a president.
03:38No other territorial unit of Pakistan has a president. It has a prime minister. It has a legislative assembly. But actual day-to-day control of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir is in the hands of the Pakistani government in Islamabad and also to a large extent with the Pakistan army GHQ in Rawalpindi.
04:06So, this disjunction has caused and continues to cause a lot of discontent and distrust. Much more is the distrust. Because we must not forget the protests were against Pakistan army. They were against Pakistani government.
04:24Not so much against the local government. Because the POK people, vice people, they also know the local government has very limited powers. It doesn't have the economic muscle. It doesn't have the financial resources.
04:39So, it can only do what's given to them by Pakistan main state. And that delivery of health services or education or power. I mean very simple example. Now that you raise the issue. Mearpur generates 14, I mean the Mangala Dam generates 1400 megawatts of power. 85% of that power goes to Punjab and Sindh. It doesn't go to Mearpur.
05:07It doesn't go to Mearpur. So, what are you expecting the Mearpuris to do? This is an international dimension.
05:14Because Mearpuris have a very strong presence in London. Which gives them in UK and particularly in London. It gives them a say in what is happening to their parent home in Murpur.
05:29And they have all migrated 40, 50 years ago. Some even before independence. Some after the second world war. Which had a lot of Mearpuris as Jawans in the then Indian army. But who were fighting on behalf of UK.
05:48So, there is this political. The other is. You see. You know the demand. That I think is also not quite realistic. I mean the demand of abolition of the political privileges by the government.
06:06And what are the elite. And what are the elite. The so-called ruling elite. This requires to be heightened. Because the leadership. Which has actually initiated.
06:18It started incidentally for your viewers. This is not the first time we have an unrest in POK. It started in May 2023.
06:29And in fact. In fact it was in August 23 that the. You know the Joint Awami Action Committee was formed. And the purpose was to agitate. For their economic, social and political rights. And when you talk about 2024. Which is last year. Once again there was a massive unrest.
06:55But it was contained. But it was contained. Again through the usual communication blackout. You know internet was off. Communications were off. And virtually curfew like conditions prevailed. And so they could not agitate. They could not come out in the open. And that was curtailed. But in all fairness. 2024. The promises made.
07:22That were partly fulfilled. These related to certain educational. And power. Not so much education. As power. I mean. That power. Charges will reduce. And the price of wheat. In the market. That will be brought down. And that happened.
07:42But apparently. But apparently the discontent is so much. That it keeps sprouting. Like beans that sprout. So I don't see this as the end of the day. We are not conscious. Of what is happening in.
08:01Sir. Okay. But this is.
08:27you know 24 by 7 communication age every second you can press a button and you're talking to
08:34somebody across so they look at the india it's our own jnk and see that they don't the single
08:43airport functioning in ajk or pok as we call it not a single airport there was an airport in
08:49muzaffarabad not functioning last two years on the contrary there's an international airport
08:56is srinagar which as crow flies is not even 200 kilometers likewise the airport in lay airport in
09:04jammu then they see the developmental prospects on our side of jnk so that comparison then drives them
09:13to frustration that we are the same jnk state princely state of jnk where pakistan invaded in 47
09:23and is in occupation of us part of the state not part actually major geographical part of jnks
09:31is with pakistan right our jnks must say if we leave out ladakh so you just mentioned gilgit baltistan
09:39this is one region where china is expanding its china pakistan economic corridor in not only gilgit
09:44baltistan i must also mention uh the roads that china is building in sakshkam valley now these are
09:51contentious regions these are integral part of india do you think in your perspective that we can only
09:58resolve the pakistan occupied kashmir issue if we resolve these issues with china first you must not
10:04forget uh heena that uh the reason why pakistan gave the shakskam valley approximately 5000 odd square
10:16kilometers to china why that gift some say it was because of rare earths and water because that area
10:27has a lot of glaciers and therefore a lot of water but strategically and in terms of security
10:36it was to give pakistan a leeway into a state of jammu and kishmir pakistan had this leeway in the state of
10:45jammu kashmir in aksaichi which is in ladakh which is far away and which which doesn't directly
10:54you know involve kashmir valley or the pakistan occupied kashmir so it was it was an intention
11:02that you need to give the big brother some entry this may seem very uh very uh prim and proper from the
11:12pakistani security perspective but we know what is happening to the chinese who have come into pakistan
11:22to build the the road raid link uh from ilkitt pakistan right up to wadah in the arabian sea and you
11:35have yourself i'm sure is a very thoughtful analytical journalist you have seen how many of these chinese
11:42have been killed through direct actions and targeting by baluchistan insurgents and what do
11:48what is the baluch problem baluch problem is that it is resource rich it is vastly populated very large
11:57area of pakistan and pakistani government over the decades that have passed exploits the resources of
12:05this so why is there so much unrest in baluchistan and this raises a bigger question that pakistan can
12:13do so little for pakistan occupied kashmir it is facing a problem on the eastern borders with india
12:21on the line of control it has a huge problem with the taliban its own creation in afghanistan and you
12:29know what has happened pakistan has been doing airstrikes in that region and we had their foreign
12:34minister mutaki come here and we have now decided to have not a full-fledged ambassador but upgrade the
12:42technical mission to an embassy with the sharjad affairs so you see the problems pakistan it's sort of
12:49it's uh it's cornered into uh and uh uh i would say a security and strategic wagmire afghanistan on the
13:00one side india on the other side economy is in doldrums baluchistan is unmanageable the ok is in
13:07up in arms balbaristan national front in in gilgat patristan has also got huge grievances we don't
13:15know when that bomb will explode we are not sure it is the people themselves who will do what they
13:20want to do so i'm afraid the situation for pakistan is grim and one will have to watch
13:28the current government has of course taken a step after not just after vaysaran and pehlgaam but even
13:35before that many many years before that from 2019 after pakistan bombed down its high commission left only
13:43the skeleton staff here in new delhi and that does not change that situation hasn't changed for six
13:50years so india pakistan bilateral is grim uh there is targeting uh there is no understanding and i think
14:01that they must not be far when you can sort of get some modicum of normalcy i'm not saying
14:09peaceful relation but it is normalcy in the diplomatic relation a lot of pok activists you
14:16also mentioned some people living in london who have ties with the region left the region 40 50
14:22years ago these people they urge to set up some sort of government in exile which consists of refugees
14:31from the region to pressurize pakistan to hand over this region to india we also need to have
14:37some sort of uh you know active diplomacy going on do you think that this is one way forward and how
14:43effective it can be no i think it would be our government would be uh hesitant to openly espouse
14:54the cause of mirpuris for the larger question that pok is the part of india and therefore
15:01uh pakistan must vacate that area uh we can look at peace uh moving forward there are many many creative
15:11and uh imaginative solutions to our crisis we also have a crisis because we have pakistan and china
15:20two countries which are our neighbors who are in cahoots with each other i don't have to tell your
15:27viewers that the indian air force in operation sindhu was fighting one front with two countries
15:37you see question of after all we have 65 of our armed forces equipment weapons aircraft ships whatever
15:51army equipment all from russia but but russia is not helping us fight wars it's only given us
15:59but in the case of china pakistan china is not only given them equipment but also help them in op sindhu to
16:11target our assets our airborne assets which were flying not in pakistan but within the territory of india
16:18so it is a very it's a very serious security situation demand a great deal of diplomacy creativity uh
16:30military modernization how you how you uh move on the international space stage to expose uh the
16:41nexus as it exists so this is a pakistan china nexus in strategic and security term
16:48for india in the decades ahead is a very very serious issue so much will depend on our skill
16:58our diplomacy our military capability uh improved military capability as a deterrent against any
17:07misadventure uh like uh like by saran or its upgrades or its follow-up in the years to come
17:16those must not be ruled out so preparedness level must be the highest that are possible in the given
17:23scenario so the security situation if we talk about of pakistan occupied kashmir sleeper cells inside of
17:29pok pakistan is supporting harboring training camps to train terrorists over there and then carry out
17:36cross-border terrorism what is it that we can do there are multiple ways by which pakistan
17:44can be dissuade uh first and foremost is its internal security dimension if chinese are hesitant to move
17:55forward on the cpec incidentally the cpec has not moved much even though it's about 12 years old now
18:04primarily because the chinese engineers personnel are being targeted constantly even though there is one
18:13full division nearly 10 000 pakistani troops are involved in providing security to the chinese
18:23plans and activities and personnel right along from oxygen up to guada so that is one aspect which will be a
18:36natural buffer against any damage because pakistan's own people are not in support of it very rightly
18:46so because the benefits of the water port and whatever else happens do not come to pakistanese and
18:53that's what the balooch are crying hoes about for the last 10 years they're not coming to the balooch
18:59balooch where it is this is baloochistan but they are going to other elements of territories and
19:06elements of pakistan which is to their great shock and anger from our side
19:13uh i think we will have we have already done uh a move forward with the chinese uh it has been a
19:22it hasn't been sudden but it was certainly triggered by uh president trump's data threats
19:31and the possibility and prospect that we saw before us of uh making it clear not only to president trump and
19:40the united states that we have other options but actually exercise that option through a more
19:49positive forward movement of the on the china india china track and we have seen the results of that
19:56in the recent past the relations are improving that will also serve as a counter to the pakistan
20:04and as it is the chinese are most unhappy with the way pakistanis are approaching the america
20:12whether it is the crypto deal whether it is a linkage with the family of president trump as has been
20:18reported by media people like yourself uh what are the factors because chinese have taken pakistan as
20:27uh as a friend to use their language and grammar uh higher than the himalayas and deeper than the
20:36mountains that kind of a relationship but that relationship seems to be coming under pressure
20:43because of pakistan now moving more and more towards the america and so in the global power configuration
20:50we had no choice but to start to do some degree of improvement of relations with china that would
20:57be the second factor the third factor is what is happening very naturally india being a huge market
21:06india's economic cloud as one of the largest growing economies in the world at roughly 6.5 to 7
21:13percent every year for the last 20 years and more and that is a substantial capability enhancement which serves
21:24as a kind of a power of induction of inducement of of attraction to markets and businesses in the western
21:40world especially to invest in india so it's a circular issue that you appeal to them not because of any
21:48like pakistan going down on its knees but by showing the power of india therefore the benefit is not only
21:57mutual but also benefits the investor so if that happens and if we are able to enhance our growth rate
22:05and per capita which is much more important because we are still at the lower uh income uh country uh of
22:161170 years dollars per capita to about 4492 per capita we are in that range we will get trapped there we have
22:26to get out of the trade and once you have comprehensive national power which includes economic power
22:35knowledge power knowledge power technology power and of course most of all military power if you have
22:41that package well done the concerns you raised and the points you made about how we can neutralize
22:49the efforts by uh by china and pakistan together through cpec and then pakistan using that route to
22:58target india through cross-border terrorism that cross-border terrorism threshold has now
23:05certainly certainly certainly changed uh we may not call it new normal but certainly deterrence
23:11levels have been made obvious by operations there is this consensus across political parties in india that
23:18kashmir is an integral part of india and there there are no second thoughts about it uh and india
23:25also has a stand that this is a bilateral issue and it is not to be internationalized but my question to
23:31you is when we look up for the map of india there is so much of distortion and not only in media outlets
23:38but also at government level of certain countries at military level of certain countries do you think
23:44that india needs to start this sort of a campaign for countries to understand that this is an integral
23:49part of india maharaja harris singh handed over kashmir and integrated exceeded it to the dominion of
23:55india so do you think that we need to have this some sort of diplomacy going on in that sector also
24:01for countries to understand and recognize pok as an integral part of india no it's uh but there is no
24:08doubts that i mean the whole world knows that pakistan invaded initially through radars and directly
24:15through forces j and k which are exceeded to india but we need to also flag four or five points here
24:24number one jammu and kashmir exceeded to india subject to article 370. now integration is emotional
24:35integration is not a policy measure the people of jammu and kashmir must feel that they are a part
24:42of india and they must feel that in their hearts and minds unfortunately uh this may be a perspective
24:50different from many people in india unfortunately the decision to unilaterally remove article 370
24:59against the wishes of the people of india you're talking about kashmir being an integral part of
25:04india the kashmiris say we are an integral part of india kashmir's constitution article 1 of jnk's
25:13called constitution which has been now abolished on 5th of august 2019 says jammu and kashmir
25:20is the state of india is the state of the indian union these are the people of india jnk who are saying
25:27but unfortunately whatever was promised to the jnk people especially the kashmiris
25:34they were attempts it's not just current dispensation from 2014 but even earlier through
25:42uh what i would call a quad you puppetize the regime then jnk how did you do that through massive
25:53rigging of election after the arrest of sheikh abdullah in 1953 9th of august all elections were
26:02rigged until 1997 when faruk abdullah came back to power after the horrible insurgency
26:11which took so many lives 40 50 000 lives whether of terrorists whether of civilians whether of our
26:17security force what was that i mean we cannot we can't brush away what we went through
26:24uh from 1990 uh the tragedy of the kashmiri bundits i'm a kashmiri bundit three lakh people
26:33are refugees in their own country why and what have we done about them that's this is a 35 year old
26:44story so it's a very complex issue the third is that fine now you were moving forward the separatism had
26:52gone out people began to see the power of the indian rupee the size of the indian market of which
26:59they were apart not that kashmiris but never felt themselves as part but then targeting of kashmiri
27:06students in colleges and universities everywhere in india as a result of uh article 370 abrogation
27:17thereafter denial of statehood there is no i mean i can understand okay it is an ideological position of
27:26this ruling party it has the majority takes a view and says okay we will abolish article 70. you may
27:34have a ruling party four years of now or five years from now which minutes which means sorry we will
27:42revert to 370 being an article of the constitution that can also happen we are a democracy but what is
27:49permanent is democracy federalism not doing anything to a people of 14 million people are residents of
28:03state of jain they must be consulted before you take a radical step like that and that is what pakistan
28:10is exploited that is why the international understanding of kashmir your words and your question
28:18that is why that is there is less understanding because the whole world has seen that this was
28:25not something india should have done consultation process but they're not saying it openly that's
28:32another point because that's diplomacy but if you see the press you see the international press the
28:38situation on kishmir what i have told you has been addressed in that third point i was talking about
28:44those two issues one was privatization of regimes two was second was denial of democracy because if you
28:53rigged elections where is democracy third is insurgency resulting out of this as also a stealthy
29:02constitutionalism because all that had been promised under article 370 to the people of jnk
29:10jnk was gradually clawed out from its moorings articles which were not to apply to jnk of the indian
29:18constitution actually applied to jnk that created this whole impulse of what could be termed for
29:26whatever better word separatism but that separatism is also gone after all don't forget we've just had
29:33elections in 2024 and you have a ruling party the national conference uh coming with uh nearly 41
29:43out of 90 seats whereas the ruling dispensation at the center that has only 28 seats in that state
29:51and rightfully the national conference formed the government but what is the point of that government
29:56which is supposedly meeting the aspirations of people of jnk who have voted them being unable to do
30:04anything for them because this dual structure of a union territory with law and order and major things
30:11lying with the left and governor as conveyed by the ruling dispensation at the center it's creating new
30:19resentment and i'm not hesitating to say it in front of you hina for your viewers there is new resentment
30:26in jnk particularly among you they feel humiliated they feel they've been denied their freedoms and
30:34rights to democracy rights to protest the media is not free so it will take us a while so what is it i'm
30:43not giving you i'm not ending on a grim no i want to convey through you yourself to your viewer that the
30:51government of india needs to be more proactive more creative more imaginative and more democratic not
31:03just in terms of what the center does in the rest of india but also what the center's policy
31:08are in jamun kashmir restoration of the statehood of jnk should be the highest priority
31:15because there has been no major no major setback to security situation in jnk as a result of coming
31:27in of a democratic party duly elected by people being in power so i have i have tried my best to
31:36explain to you how the jnk issue is an extremely complex issue it will need support of the people of
31:43jnk it will need an imaginative policy by the center and the rest of indian people for whom kashmir is
31:52theirs kashmir is not just territory kashmiri is also people of kashmir and you know how they are all
31:59over you go to any corner of india there's always a kashmiri presence either a carpet seller a paper machine
32:06shatter or a hotel or business it's all in their hands so there's so much a part of us as you rightly
32:15said integral part of india but they must be emotionally and psychologically made to feel
32:23an integral part of india thank you so much air vice marshal kapilka for joining asianet news and
32:30giving your perspective thank you thank you heena such a pleasure uh interacting with you and what
32:37a range of thoughtful penetrating questions you raised and made me nervous
32:44well uh your experience spoke sir thank you once again and hope to speak to you soon thank you
Recommended
7:19
10:03
Be the first to comment