From January to September 2025, Taiwan logged over 4,000 Chinese incursions into its air defense identification zone or ADIZ, including several joint air-sea combat patrols. What do these maneuvers signal—and how can Taiwan effectively respond? TaiwanPlus tries to find out the answer.
00:00A Taiwanese drama that simulates a cross-strait war, vividly depicts what it might look like before a conflict breaks out.
00:12First, Chinese military aircraft swarm Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone, or ADIZ.
00:19But this isn't just fiction, it's what Taiwan faces every day.
00:30Starting in 2016, Taiwan's government began releasing data on Chinese aircraft and naval activity around the country.
00:39And in 2020, the Defense Ministry started publishing daily updates on that activity.
00:45That's because nearly every day, China's military, the People's Liberation Army, sent aircraft and vessels into Taiwan's ADIZ.
00:53Taiwan has locked more than 4,000 Chinese military aircraft entering its ADIZ in the first nine months of 2025, hundreds more than during the same period last year.
01:04Primary driver behind this year's record activity is likely the POA need to intensify training related to Taiwan's contingency.
01:15Since Lai Qingde became Taiwan's president in May 2024, there have been on average more than 300 Chinese sorties every month crossing the median line of Taiwan's ADIZ.
01:27Experts say the Chinese military has shown an ability to sustain such a level of activity against Taiwan, particularly in logistics and maintenance.
01:37And it has a lot to do with the plummeting trots across the Taiwan Strait.
01:40Beijing's perception of President Lai Qingdeo's pro-independent stance has likely led Xi Jinping to abandon expectations of probably improved cross-relations or to deliberately apply continuous coercive measures against Taiwan.
02:00But what exactly is an ADIZ? And why does it matter for Taiwan's defense?
02:05Generally speaking, an ADIZ is an area of airspace established for national security and air defense purposes.
02:14The first one was created by the U.S. in the early 1950s, when it set up a joint zone with Canada to guard against potential Soviet bomber threats to North America.
02:24The main reason is aircraft move quickly, and waiting until a hostile plane actually enters the country's official airspace could leave to little time to respond.
02:34To address the risk, countries extended a buffer zone beyond their national airspace, and that's an ADIZ.
02:41Any aircraft passing through this zone must identify itself so that the country can determine whether it poses the threats.
02:48But an ADIZ carries no legal authority.
02:52It's meant to monitor and identify aircraft without interception.
02:55Taiwan's ADIZ, established in 1952 with the help of the U.S., covers an area of over 150,000 square nautical miles.
03:21Initially, the zone's boundaries included parts of China's airspace.
03:27After the addition of the medium line in the Taiwan Strait in 1955, Taiwan's main area of surveillance and defense has been to the east of that line.
03:35But even if Chinese aircrafts cross the medium line, Taiwan does not have law enforcement authority there.
03:41It can only monitor the intruding aircraft and may intercept only if they enter national airspace.
03:46While the originally drawn air defense identification zone covers a large portion of mainland China,
03:53today Taiwan's ADIZ functionally is only enforced east and south of the median line of the Taiwan Strait.
04:00In August 2022, then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan,
04:07marking the highest-level U.S. visit to the country in many years.
04:11China responded with Li-Fi drills.
04:14Nearly 450 Chinese aircrafts flew into Taiwan's ADIZ in August 2022 alone,
04:20which remains the highest monthly total on record.
04:23Another spike in ADIZ incursions happened in April 2023,
04:28after then-President Tsai Ing-wen met the U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California.
04:34That month alone,
04:35Taiwan detected 259 Chinese military aircrafts entering its ADIZ.
04:40All these have raised a critical question.
04:43With this large amount of military activity,
04:46would an ADIZ incursion ever turn into a war?
04:49I don't think that ADIZ incursions alone are a road to a conflict.
04:56I do think that, generally speaking,
04:58ADIZ incursions have created a very good cover
05:01for the PLA to have a sustained presence around Taiwan
05:05that I think has muddied the waters
05:06in terms of what does, for example,
05:09a pre-blockade or pre-invasion posture look like.
05:12As the PLA continues to modernize,
05:15its incursions around Taiwan are not just limited to traditional warplanes.
05:20More and more on-manned aerial vehicles are also being deployed.
05:24In 2024,
05:26PLA drones circled Taiwan three times,
05:28all in the month of August.
05:30But so far in 2025,
05:32there have already been eight such instances spread across multiple months,
05:36showing not just an increase in number,
05:39but a clear move toward normalization.
05:41We did see a shift.
05:43We saw increased usage of UAVs.
05:45Generally speaking,
05:46UAVs were about 10% of the aircraft tracked in each month.
05:50The trend, some experts say,
05:52shows the PLA is putting more emphasis on time-sensitive targets,
05:57mobile threats that pose an immediate danger.
06:00That requires the military to respond instantly
06:02and seize brief windows of opportunity on the battlefield,
06:06using tools like UAVs.
06:08So by employing long-endurance drones or UAVs,
06:13which are cheaper and risk-free compared to main aircraft,
06:18the PLA can enhance its real-time surveillance and targeting capabilities
06:22while minimizing operational cost and personal risk.
06:28But Taiwan is not sitting idly by.
06:31One expert says Taiwan's monitoring capability in its ADIZ is strong overall.
06:37And in terms of radar coverage density,
06:39Taiwan could be among the best in the world.
06:41Taiwan can also be more proactive in showcasing deterrence.
07:00Taiwan can also be more proactive in showcasing deterrence.
07:04In terms of what Washington can do, I think would be to support Taiwan in acquiring capabilities
07:09that would allow them to maintain a good picture of the air domain around Taiwan
07:13without having to scramble their own aircraft constantly.
07:17I also think that the United States could rhetorically push back on some of the major incursions
07:22that go on, they have in the past.
07:24As China steps on military pressure in Taiwan's ADIZ,
07:27how Taiwan responds is more critical than ever.
07:30As China steps on military pressure in Taiwan's ADIZ,
07:37how Taiwan responds is more critical than ever.
07:38From boosting round-the-clock surveillance to deepening cooperation with international partners,
07:39Taipei must now move beyond concepts and turn plans into action.
07:40John Suu and Edan Liu for Taiwan Plus.
07:43I also think that the United States could rhetorically push back on some of the major incursions that go on,
07:48they have in the past.
07:49As China steps on military pressure in Taiwan's ADIZ,
07:53how Taiwan responds is more critical than ever.
07:56From boosting round-the-clock surveillance to deepening cooperation with international partners,
08:02Taipei must now move beyond concepts and turn plans into action.
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