00:00China has launched one of its largest and most complex military drills yet around Taiwan.
00:24The operation is called Justice Mission 2025, and it has immediately raised fears that these drills could be more than simple training, and could even be a dress rehearsal for a future conflict.
00:38Let's break down what's happening, why it matters, and what the risks are.
00:44China's People's Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command began the exercises on December 29, 2025.
00:57They cover multiple regions around Taiwan — north, southwest, southeast, and east, including the Taiwan Strait.
01:06This is not a small-scale drill. It involves the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force, with live fire exercises beginning at 8 a.m. local time on December 30.
01:19Chinese officials are calling the drills a stern warning to what they describe as Taiwan independence forces and to external interference.
01:30That message is clearly aimed at the United States after Washington approved an $11 billion arms sale to Taiwan — the largest ever.
01:40Operations include sea air patrols, mock blackades of key ports like Keilung and Kaohsiung,
01:47and coordinated naval air exercises that simulate encircling the island.
01:52Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense has condemned the drills as irrational provocations that threaten peace in the region.
02:08Taiwan's military has gone on high alert, launching rapid response drills, deploying its navy and air force, and activating coastal missile systems.
02:18This marks the largest-scale Chinese exercise since previous operations like joint sword and the first major drill under the new U.S. administration.
02:37These drills closely resemble a real-world invasion scenario.
02:41China is practicing blockading ports, seizing key areas, and isolating Taiwan militarily and economically.
02:50And that's why fears are now at their highest point in years.
02:54U.S. military assessments say China aims to be ready to win a war over Taiwan by 2027.
03:02Analysts believe a full-scale invasion is still unlikely in the near term.
03:08The risks are massive — economic collapse, global sanctions, and devastating losses.
03:15But the scale and timing of these drills send a clear message.
03:19China wants the world to know it is prepared to escalate — if it chooses to.
03:25Just before the drills began, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov publicly reaffirmed Moscow's support for China.
03:42He stated that Russia opposes Taiwan independence in any form and backs Beijing in defending its territorial claims.
03:50This highlights a growing Russell-Chinese strategic alignment, one that could complicate any Western response.
03:58So, the big question — could this spark World War III?
04:03If China were ever to pivot from drills to an invasion, the consequences would be enormous.
04:20The U.S. is legally committed to help Taiwan defend itself, though military intervention is not guaranteed.
04:28U.S. responses could include sanctions, weapons shipments, intelligence support, or even enforcing no-fly or naval zones.
04:37If fighting escalated and U.S. allies joined in, that could potentially put China and Russia on one side and Western powers on the other.
04:47And because Taiwan produces the majority of the world's advanced semiconductors, a conflict fair would shake the entire global economy.
04:56For now, these drills are military exercises, not war.
05:01But they show how quickly training can blur into escalation and how fragile peace in the Taiwan Strait has become.
05:08As China practices surrounding Taiwan, and Taiwan prepares to respond, the world watches, hoping this remains a rehearsal and never becomes reality.
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