00:00To get more insight, we can speak now to Research Associate at the University of Oxford, Dr. John Crabtree.
00:06Thanks so much for your time.
00:07Can I start by asking you, could you tell us a bit more about this new president and this idea he presented during the campaign of capitalism for all?
00:17Yes, well, he's Rodrigo Paz, his seon of an old political family.
00:22I mean, as you mentioned, his father was a former president in the late 1980s, beginning of the 1990s.
00:30He's also the great nephew of Victor Paz Estensoro, the very man who made the Bolivian Revolution in 1952.
00:36And he was previously the mayor of Tarija, which is a small department in the southeast of Bolivia.
00:42But he was also a senator up until now.
00:46So he's not a complete unknown, but he's not a very well-known figure either in Bolivian politics.
00:52So I think he comes to the job with a degree of flexibility without too many having nailed his sails too close to the mast.
01:01He is, I think, what you would call a center-right candidate, rather different from Jorge Quiroga, who you might sort of classify as a far-right candidate.
01:13But certainly it's the case that this represents a major shift in Bolivian politics, as in, as you mentioned earlier, that the mass, the Movimento al Socialismo, has been the dominant party in Bolivia for the last 20 years.
01:28It was first elected under Evo Morales in 2005.
01:32So it represents a big change, I think, in terms of tone, of course, but maybe less radical, the change will be less radical than if Quiroga had won.
01:43Now, Lepaz has said that he's going to stabilize the economy.
01:47It would appear that that's the biggest issue for Bolivians.
01:50He said he will, however, maintain social spending.
01:53I mean, can he do both?
01:56I think it's going to be a tricky act.
01:58He needs to access dollars to stabilize the economy.
02:02One of the problems facing the outgoing regime has been the scarcity of dollars.
02:07Now, there is quite a large number of loans which have been blocked by the pre-outgoing Congress, which he can rely on.
02:14But unlike Quiroga, who promised to go to the IMF, which, of course, would bring major conditionalities, not doing so gives him a slightly freer hand in terms of economic policy.
02:26But it's going to be a big change.
02:30And capitalismo por todos is a slogan.
02:34It doesn't mean very much, I don't think, in practice.
02:38But he's going to have to try to craft a stabilization package, which is rather more gradual and negotiated than would have been the case if Quiroga had won.
02:48Can you tell us a bit more about Bolivia's economy?
02:51I mean, it seems that they've been heavy on fuel subsidies for a long time, but their gas resources are pretty much gone.
02:56However, when we think of Bolivia, we do think of other rich resources, notably those rare minerals.
03:03That's right.
03:04I mean, Bolivia has up to now been very dependent on gas exports to Brazil and to Argentina.
03:09These have diminished.
03:12The amount of proven reserves have diminished dangerously low.
03:15And also, Argentina, having found gas of its own, has suspended the imports that it got from Bolivia.
03:23So the country has gone through a problem there.
03:25At the same time, the system of subsidies, which has existed now for the best part of 20 years, continues.
03:33It is expensive.
03:34It's a draw on the resources of the state and the fiscal resources of the state.
03:38It costs them a lot of money to import diesel and petroleum.
03:43And therefore, the ability to stabilize the economy won't come easy.
03:51The country does need an infusion of dollars.
03:54Now, whether or not the amount of loans which, as mentioned, which have been held up actually provides that sufficient amount of dollars is a moot point.
04:05I suspect they may have to go and get more loans, and that will, of course, bring with it conditions.
04:12There has been a problem of inflation.
04:15It's not a hyperinflation.
04:16I mean, the inflation rate is around about 20%, something like that, which, of course, reduces people's incomes quite drastically.
04:25So it's a drag on the popular economy.
04:29So one of the objectives would be to try and reduce inflation.
04:33But, of course, in the short term, one of the measures that are likely to be taken is a devaluation of the local currency.
04:40And that brings with it inflationary pressures, since by its very nature, it leads to an increase in the price of imported goods, of which Bolivia is highly dependent.
04:50When you speak, though, about these loans that have been held up, I believe you said, by government, when we look at the president that has the president-elect now, I mean, he still doesn't have a majority in Congress.
05:00How much power will he have?
05:03Well, he finds himself in a better position than if Caruga had won.
05:06I mean, he has more, a bigger block of votes in the Legislative Assembly than the Caruga camp does.
05:15He can probably count on forging alliances with other parties, particularly with the party of the candidate that came third in the first round of elections, Samuel Doré Medina's party, though he can probably negotiate some sort of deal with them.
05:32But, I mean, the Assembly is, by its nature, fractious, and the strength of parties, they're not very disciplined organizations, so it may be more problematic than just the mathematics would suggest.
05:47Another thing Paz has said, though, on his to-do list is to put Bolivia back on this international stage.
05:53You talked there about the U.S. dollars.
05:54We have seen U.S. relations cool over the last two decades.
05:58How do you see things going from here?
06:00Our relations have been very bad.
06:03I mean, one of the sort of main points of the massive agenda has been what it would see as sort of anti-imperialism, which means anti-North American.
06:14The mass was forged out of the war on drugs in the Chaparri, which gave rise to Evo Morales in the first place.
06:23So, one of the things that the United States will look to, to the new government, I would suspect, will be a much more energetic crackdown on the production of coca and the manufacture of cocaine.
06:39But having said that, I mean, I think that Bolivia will want to keep its options open.
06:45It will not wish to side entirely with the United States at the expense of China.
06:49China is important for Bolivia, potentially so anyway.
06:52And I think that, you know, that they will try to maintain a kind of balance in foreign policy.
07:00Though, of course, one of the things that if Kedoga had won, it would have been much closer to Washington's desires, I think.
07:06And any arrangement with the IMF has to have the support and approval by the U.S. Treasury, which would, again, would probably imply certain conditionalities.
07:22Sorry, sorry to interrupt you.
07:23But I was just thinking, I was just thinking, Paz seems to be the centre-right candidate compared to the far-right candidate.
07:29But nonetheless, Bolivia taking a turn towards the right.
07:32And it's something we're seeing in neighbouring countries in South America as well.
07:35I mean, are they comparable?
07:37Is there overall a turn towards the right?
07:39And why?
07:40I think there is.
07:42I mean, we've seen a right-wing government take over in Ecuador.
07:47It's quite likely that the right-wing candidate in the coming Chilean elections will win.
07:52That seems to be a prediction that people are making.
07:55And it's also quite likely that a more centre-right right-wing candidate will win in Colombia, which is...
08:01And, of course, you know, who knows what's going to happen in Venezuela.
08:03So, it's...
08:05There is, I mean, the pink tide, which is what gave rise to the mass in the first place.
08:11I mean, a switch in Latin America towards more progressive left-of-centre governments looks like sort of ebbing further and further to the right.
08:20Dr. John Crabtree, we'll have to leave you there.
08:23But thank you so much for joining us and bringing us your insight here on it all on France 24.
08:27Much appreciated.
08:28Dr. John Crabtree there of Oxford University.
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