00:00so in our special series in focus i have my guest today dr harsh pan he's a foreign policy expert
00:22who is currently serving as the vice president studies in foreign policy at the orf think tank
00:27in new delhi he's also a professor of international relations at king's college in london uh dr panth
00:33yesterday trump claimed that pm modi will soon end the imports of russian oil between june and
00:40september this year there was a drop of 45 percent of russian oil imports by india's state-owned
00:47refineries but what do you anticipate about the private sector do you think that private sector
00:52will also try uh to look at these geopolitical realities see uh i think you know some amount
00:58of recalibration from america from russia uh was of course expected given that the the upsurge in in
01:06india's buying of russian oil had a lot to do with uh with the kind of discounts that russia at one
01:13point was offering india so once the you know once those discounts ended and once the volatility in
01:19the global energy market also subsided to a certain extent uh it was very clear that that india would
01:26revert back and recalibrate its its uh supplies and any sensible buyer would uh diversify in this day
01:36and age so and india has always done that so i think it was it has been i i don't think the decline
01:42uh has as much to do with with with the us partly to do with the us but i i don't think it is driven
01:49largely by what mr trump is saying in any case mr trump was saying his statement was about here and
01:56now he seemed to be suggesting that he just had a call with mr modi recently uh and mr modi has said
02:02that he would be you know stopping uh oil from russia which which i think india has made it clear that
02:08that is not the case and oil's energy supplies in india will be determined largely by india's
02:16own political economy because it's a very important ingredient in our economic growth uh and any
02:22inflationary pressure on energy prices uh would have a devastating impact for a large part of our
02:28population so any bullet any government in india cannot afford uh to uh you know change the dynamic
02:35of the energy market and make it more volatile so i think largely what we are witnessing is that there
02:39has been a relative decline from russia which was to be expected but i we still have to wait and watch
02:46and see how it stabilizes because energy markets are still in flux uh do you think dr pan that we will
02:52see more of this happening towards the end of november and maybe probably towards the beginning of
02:57december if there is even an iota of truth to what trump said that india will halt russian
03:02oil is immediately because the contracts need to happen a couple of weeks prior so do you think
03:08that towards the end of november or maybe beginning of december we will see how these oil imports
03:13have been have been impacted i think we will have a clearer idea of the data uh you know by early
03:19december and then we can make some uh some uh you know assertions in this regard at this point it's just
03:25too uh you know early and there is i think whatever data we have does not purport to confirm mr
03:32trump's view that india is uh doing it because he told india to do i think india has been recalibrating
03:38for a while and india will continue to do it depending on the energy market and of course uh
03:42you know we know that uh prime minister modi had been in direct touch with the russian president also
03:48and he is supposed to visit india in uh in november sorry in early december so clearly uh you know we
03:55may see uh another deal uh with with the russians i think largely uh mr trump is doing this for his
04:02own place at home rather than uh because he needs to tell them that he has been successful on certain
04:08front and the russia front he clearly has not been successful right and uh what do you think dr panth
04:14how much infrastructure will play a role when india will you know think about this recalibration because
04:20the current infrastructure that we have it is more adaptable for uh you know refining the russian
04:26crude oil rather than the u.s sweet crude oil so do you think that it will also play a factor of course
04:32see these kind of decisions have a long gestation period so to expect that uh is overnight we will
04:39have our our our energy you know suppliers change uh is unrealistic and also not uh from a from a
04:46from a country like india's perspective which is a developing country highly reliant on energy
04:51supplies for its economic growth uh is uh is not something that it can afford so what what any
04:57change is going to be a long-term change because it would require policy change infrastructure change
05:01it would require a reorientation in its foreign policy uh which india at this point is not willing to
05:06do i think if if today what mr trump has done with india if anything india many in india would be much more
05:14comfortable saying that we can we need to build a solid energy partnership with russia because who
05:20knows uh mr trump and his you know he can change on a dime so we the unreliability of of mr trump the
05:27unreliability of the trump administration and the way they have proceeded on this issue will further my
05:33may further strengthen india's resolve to continue with russia rather than decrease russia i think what
05:39india certainly can offer america uh is that india like in the in the past can buy more energy from
05:46the u.s and i think that's certainly something that india can afford and india can put as a bargaining
05:52chip on the table as the trade negotiations uh you know continue and u.s i think have also multiple
05:59times that global platforms have told about how it envisions itself to be a global hub when it comes to
06:06oil so i think it's more so about us being a global leader in oil market rather than you know uh asking
06:14india so that the war in ukraine can end you think yes yes i think it's it's partly to do with america
06:21itself and trump administration itself projecting uh its own uh energy capabilities but i think partly it
06:28is to tell uh you know its base that uh that trump is doing something about uh the russia ukraine war
06:34because let's remember he came to office saying that within days he can end this war and now it
06:40has been 10 months in office and then the war has not stopped in fact it has escalated the russia ukraine
06:44front and mr putin doesn't seem to be in any mood to concede uh and uh and i think that's a real degree
06:50of frustration so what he does uh and and how what he what mr trump does to protect his face uh from his
06:57base is to tell them that look i am putting pressure on india i'm putting pressure on china because
07:02these are the countries that are supporting the war effort uh and without uh and i don't think
07:08the irony is lost on anyone that this is not modi's war this is not uh you know india's war this is
07:13primarily a war between russia and the west and i think ultimately how they come to terms with each
07:18other will determine the fate of this conflict india can india uh even if india tomorrow decides to uh
07:24you know reduce completely its supplies from russia uh the war is not is going to continue because
07:31russia has invested in the war far significantly enough uh both politically and militarily that it
07:38can't go back without attaining certain objectives and at this point the war seems to be frozen and
07:43therefore we are seeing an escalation on the battlefield so i think for for mr trump this is
07:47all about domestic projection of right and you spoke of china why do you think that trump is not
07:52scrutinizing china uh as to how it's doing with india no see i think he is he is talking about china i think
08:00the problem that he faces with china is that he hopes still that he can get a grand bargain out of
08:07china when you know and and he continues to vacillate between not between being angry at xi jinping uh and
08:13leaving uh you know tariffs on him because you know for the rare earth uh you know issues uh and on the
08:20on the one hand and on the other uh making a case that he would want to uh meet xi jinping and and come
08:26and finalize the the trade agreement so i think he still feels that there is a possibility there that
08:32he can explore and therefore he uses china uh you know uh occasionally in his in his remarks when it
08:39comes to this particular project but if you see uh for him uh the bigger issue of course remains how do
08:46you come to terms with with china on a range of fronts and then he has opened a number of those fronts
08:51uh and it would be interesting to see whether they meet in the upcoming asean summit or not
08:57trump has also been talking about how he uh wants to broaden the ties between us and russia also when
09:04it comes to uh mineral deals or when it comes to increasing the trade also don't you think that
09:10it's a hypocrisy for us and also follow-up question that even if he's able to end the war in ukraine don't
09:16you think that russia may relaunch its offensive way after filling the financial coffers of it uh
09:21through these trades see i think i mean hypocrisy is everywhere when it comes to uh mr trump and i
09:29don't think i don't think he thinks along those lines his his calculations are far uh cruder and
09:35simpler saying that look i want this deal i want i i want an outcome if i'm not getting an outcome i will
09:41put pressure on third parties in this particular case uh india becomes a party to this to this
09:46problem uh he you know if if uh putin had given him a good deal early on and ended the war he would
09:54have been very happy there would have been no issue uh and in fact a a reasonable relationship between us
10:00and russia serves india very well because ideally that would put that would bring india out of the
10:05picture uh but i think because the relationship has not gone uh you know in between in us and russia
10:11under trump along predictable lines as he had expected he is frustrated and therefore he's
10:16you know he's targeting third parties like india and if uh i mean see russia uh russia's ukraine
10:24policy will be contingent on how putin views uh ukraine and the outcome of ukraine for his own
10:31political survival as well as for russia's strategic interests i don't think it he will he will make it
10:37contingent on what mr trump thinks about him or about russia so you know i i think mr trump is uh
10:44is uh fairly uh inaccurate in his assessment in that regard and it would uh it would be and many
10:50in america have said that that this is something that we have to be more more clear-eyed about we
10:56might see a summit happening between both the leaders in budapest and also there is a talk about uh
11:02u.s giving more defense equipment tomahawk missiles to ukraine uh in your point of view
11:08do you think that trump will be able to end this war after west asia success see it depends on what
11:14we mean by uh ending the war if it means freezing the war at this point in time perhaps uh uh because
11:22we i think we will be we are entering the winter phase which is the most difficult phase in in in in
11:26this war where and then in the two sides are basically frozen base you know we are seeing
11:31assaults on uh the energy grids of both sides uh and there is a sense uh that look this has this has
11:39reached a dead end now point i think the point for both russians and the ukrainians is do they view
11:45this this pause as something that they can later uh come back to or do they think that this is this this
11:52freeze uh will lead to a more stable long-term outcome uh i am not very sure that uh another
11:59summit with mr putin is going to yield uh mr trump very many dividends yes i mean we have we saw for
12:04example what happened in alaska and we have seen what happens what happened since alaska on the
12:09battlefield it has escalated russians have gone all out ukrainians have been demanding more weapons
12:14americans have said that they would give more weapons if the need arose so i think um mr trump is
12:19concerned might be concerned that uh if if he doesn't bring an end to this war then america
12:26itself would get dragged into this uh and this is this was something that he did not anticipate when
12:31he entered when he had said that i would be ending this war in days so i think his base would be very
12:35unhappy if if the the war drags on and elections are coming midterm elections are coming in the us and
12:41i think all of that you know puts pressure on his policy uh so clearly i think there are pressures on
12:47all sides to come to some sort of an arrangement but i don't think any long-lasting solution is
12:51anywhere near the site at this point in time thank you so much dr pan for speaking with asianic news
12:57and giving your insights on this topic thank you
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