00:00so in our special series in focus i have my guest today dr harsh pan he's a foreign policy expert
00:22who is currently serving as the vice president studies in foreign policy at the orf think tank
00:27in new delhi he's also a professor of international relations at king's college in london uh dr panth
00:33yesterday trump claimed that pm modi will soon end the imports of russian oil between june and
00:40september this year there was a drop of 45 percent of russian oil imports by india's state-owned
00:47refineries but what do you anticipate about the private sector do you think that private sector
00:52will also try uh to look at these geopolitical realities see uh i think you know some amount
00:58of recalibration from america from russia was of course expected given that the the upsurge in in
01:06india's buying of russian oil had a lot to do with uh with the kind of discounts that russia at one
01:13point was offering india so once the you know once those discounts ended and once the volatility in
01:19the global energy market also subsided to a certain extent uh it was very clear that that india would
01:26revert back and recalibrate its its uh supplies and any sensible buyer would uh diversify in this day
01:36and age so and india has always done that so i think it was it has been i i don't think the decline
01:42uh has as much to do with with with the us partly to do with the us but i i don't think uh it is
01:49driven largely by what mr trump is saying in any case mr trump was saying his statement was about
01:56here and now he seemed to be suggesting that he just had a call with mr modi recently uh and mr
02:02modi has said that he would be you know stopping uh oil from russia which which i think india has made
02:08it clear that that is not the case and oil's energy supplies in india will be determined largely
02:15by india's own political economy because it's a very important ingredient in our economic growth
02:21and any inflationary pressure on energy prices uh would have a devastating impact for a large part of
02:28our population so any bullet any government in india cannot afford uh to uh you know change the
02:34dynamic of the energy market and make it more volatile so i think largely what we are witnessing
02:39is that there has been relative decline from russia which was to be expected but i we still have to
02:45wait and watch and see how it stabilizes because energy markets are still in flux uh do you think dr
02:51pun that we will see more of this happening towards the end of november and maybe probably towards the
02:57beginning of december if there is even an iota of truth to what trump said that india will halt russian
03:02oil is immediately because the contracts need to happen a couple of weeks prior so do you think
03:08that towards the end of november or maybe beginning of december we will see how these oil imports have
03:13been have been impacted i think we will have a clearer idea of the data uh you know by early december and
03:20then we can make some uh some you know assertions in this regard at this point it's just too uh you know
03:27early and there is i think whatever data we have does not purport to confirm mr trump's view that india
03:33is uh doing it because he told india to do i think india has been recalibrating for a while and india
03:39will continue to do it depending on the energy market and of course uh you know we know that uh
03:44prime minister modi had been in direct touch with the russian president also and he is supposed to visit
03:50india in uh in november sorry in early december so clearly uh you know we may see uh another deal
03:57with with the russians i think largely uh mr trump is doing this for his own place at home rather than
04:05because he needs to tell them that he has been successful on uncertain frontier and the russia
04:09front he clearly has not been successful right and uh what do you think dr panth how much infrastructure
04:16will play a role when india will you know think about this recalibration because the current
04:21infrastructure that we have it is more adaptable for uh you know refining the russian crude oil
04:26rather than the u.s sweet crude oil so do you think that it will also play a factor of course see
04:33these kind of decisions have a long gestation period so to expect that uh overnight we will have
04:39our our our our energy you know suppliers change uh is unrealistic uh and also not uh from a from a
04:47from a country like india's perspective which is a developing country highly reliant on energy
04:51supplies for its economic growth uh is uh is not something that it can afford so what what any change
04:57is going to be a long-term change because it would require policy change infrastructure change it would
05:02require a reorientation in its foreign policy uh which india at this point is not willing to do i think
05:07if if today what mr trump has done with india if anything india many in india would be much more
05:14comfortable saying that we can we need to build a solid energy partnership with russia because who knows
05:20uh mr trump and his you know he can change on a dime so we the unreliability of of mr trump the
05:27unreliability of the trump administration and the way they have proceeded on this issue will further may
05:33further strengthen india's resolve to continue with russia rather than decrease russia i think what
05:39india certainly can offer america uh is that india like in the in the past can buy more energy from
05:46the us and i think that's certainly something that india can afford and india can put as a bargaining chip
05:53on the table as the trade negotiations uh you know continue and u.s i think have also multiple times
06:00that global platforms have told about how it envisions itself to be a global hub when it comes
06:06to oil so i think it's more so about us being a global leader in oil market rather than you know
06:14asking india so that the war in ukraine can end you think yes yes i think it's it's partly to do with
06:21america itself and trump administration itself projecting its own energy capabilities but i think
06:27partly it is to tell uh you know its base that uh that trump is doing something about uh the russia
06:33ukraine war because let's remember he came to office saying that within day he can end this war
06:39and now it has been 10 months in office and then the war has not stopped in fact it has escalated that
06:43the russia ukraine front and mr putin doesn't seem to be in any mood to concede uh and uh and i think
06:49that's a real degree of frustration so what he does uh and and how what he what mr trump does to protect his
06:55face uh from his base is to tell them that look i am putting pressure on india i'm putting pressure
07:01on china because these are the countries that are supporting the war effort uh and without uh and i
07:07don't think the irony is lost on anyone that this is not modi's war this is not uh you know india's
07:12war this is primarily a war between russia and the west and i think ultimately uh how they come to
07:18terms with each other will determine the fate of this conflict india can india uh even if india
07:23tomorrow decides to uh you know reduce completely its supplies from russia uh the war is not is
07:29going to continue because russia has invested in the war far significantly enough uh both politically
07:37and militarily that it can't go back without attaining certain objectives and at this point
07:41the war seems to be frozen and therefore we are seeing an escalation on the battlefield
07:45so i think for for mr trump this is all about domestic projection of right and you spoke of china
07:51why do you think that trump is not scrutinizing china uh as to how it's doing with india no see i
07:57think he is he is talking about china i think the problem that he faces with china is that he hopes
08:04still that he can get a grand bargain out of china when you know and and he continues to vacillate
08:09between not between being angry at xi jinping uh and living uh you know tariffs on him because you know
08:15for the rare earth uh you know issues uh and on the on the one hand and on the other uh making a case
08:23that he would want to uh meet xi jinping and and come and finalize the the trade agreement so i think
08:29he still feels that there is a possibility there that he can explore and therefore he uses china uh you
08:36know uh uh occasionally in his in his remarks when it comes to this particular project but if you see
08:42uh for him uh the bigger issue of course remains how do you come to terms with with china on a range
08:49of fronts and then he has opened a number of those fronts uh and it would be interesting to see whether
08:54they meet in the upcoming asian summit or not trump has also been talking about how he uh wants to
09:01broaden the ties between us and russia also when it comes to uh mineral deals or when it comes to
09:08increasing the trade also don't you think that it's a hypocrisy for us and also follow up question
09:13that even if he is able to end the war in ukraine don't you think that russia may relaunch its offensive
09:19after filling the financial coffers of it uh through these trades see i think i mean hypocrisy is
09:26everywhere when it comes to uh mr trump and i don't think i don't think he thinks along those lines his
09:32his calculations are far uh cruder and simpler saying that look uh i want this deal i want uh i
09:39i you know i want an outcome if i'm not getting an outcome i will put pressure on third parties
09:43in this particular case uh india becomes a party to this to this problem uh he you know if if uh
09:50putin had given him a good deal early on and ended the war he would have been very happy there would
09:55have been no issue uh and in fact a reasonable relationship between us and russia serves india very
10:01well because ideally that would put that would bring india out of the picture uh but i think
10:07because the relationship has not gone uh you know in between in us and russia under trump along
10:12predictable lines as he had expected he is frustrated and therefore he's you know he's targeting
10:17third parties like india and if uh i mean see russia uh russia's ukraine policy will be contingent on how
10:26potent views uh ukraine and the outcome of ukraine for his own political survival as well as for russia's
10:33strategic interests i don't think it he will he will make it contingent on what mr trump thinks about
10:39him or about russia so you know i i think mr trump is uh uh is uh fairly uh inaccurate in his assessment
10:47in that regard and it would uh it would be and many in america have said that that this is something that
10:54we have to be more more clear-eyed about we might see a summit happening between both the leaders in
10:59budapest and also there is a talk about uh us giving more defense equipment tomahawk missiles to ukraine
11:06uh in your point of view do you think that trump will be able to end this war after west asia success
11:13see it depends on what we mean by uh ending the war if it means freezing the war at this point in time
11:19perhaps uh uh because we i think we will be we are entering the winter phase which is the most
11:25difficult phase in in in in this war where and the in the two sides are basically frozen base you know
11:30we are seeing assaults on uh the energy grids of both sides uh and there is a sense uh that look this
11:38has this has reached a dead end now point i think the point for both russians and the ukrainians is
11:44do they view this this pause as something that they can later uh come back to or do they think
11:50that this is this this freeze uh will lead to a more stable long-term outcome uh i am not very
11:57sure that uh another summit with mr putin is going to yield uh mr trump very many dividends yes i mean
12:03we have we saw for example what happened in alaska and we have seen what has it happened what happened
12:08since alaska on the battlefield it has escalated russians have gone all out ukrainians have been
12:13demanding more weapons americans have said that they would give more weapons if the need arose
12:17so i think mr trump is concerned might be concerned that uh if if he doesn't bring an end to this war
12:25then america itself would get dragged into this and this is this was something that he did not
12:30anticipate when he entered when he had said that i would be ending this war in days so i think his base
12:35would be very unhappy if if the the war drags on and elections are coming midterm elections are coming
12:40in the us and i think all of that you know puts pressure on his policy uh so clearly i think
12:46there are pressures on all sides to come to some sort of an arrangement but i don't think any long
12:50lasting solution is anywhere near sight at this point in time thank you so much dr pan for speaking
12:56with asianet news and giving your insights on this topic thank you
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