In this video we discuss if the Liberal Party is collapsing, why they've been struggling over the past few months and what this means for the Australian Political landscape.
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-------------------------------------------- 0:00 - Intro 1:11 - Context 2:35 - 5 Key Reasons for the party's collapse 2:54 - [1] Lack Of Direction 3:19 - [2] Weak Leadership 4:05 - [3] Not Representative Of Australia 5:03 - [4] Australia Shifts Left 5:52 - [5] Rising Factionalism 6:19 - Could The Party Collapse? 6:43 - What's Next? 9:02 - Outro ------------------------------------------- Music by Zakhar Valaha from Pixabay Source: https://pixabay.com/music/beautiful-p... Artist: https://pixabay.com/users/good_b_musi... -------------------------------------------- #politcs #news #indepth #auspol #australia #auspolexplained #politicsnews #politicsexplained #liberal #australiapolitics
00:00Since the defeat of the Coalition at the 2025 Australian federal election, the group has continued to slump in the polls as the Liberal Party faces internal battles concerning different policy stances and challenges facing its voter demographics.
00:13Prominent Shadow Cabinet members have resigned.
00:16Just last month, the Coalition fell to a record low of 26% in the opinion polls, while support for right-wing Conservative Party One Nation has almost doubled since the election.
00:27This collapse is eerily similar to that of the UK's Conservative Party, which, after the July 2024 elections, saw its support fall further, with the Reform UK Party taking over in the polls.
00:38So, today, we'll look at what went wrong with the Liberal Party, why it's continued to decline in the polls, and if the Liberal Party as we know it is over.
00:56The Coalition came out of the federal election with its lowest share of seats in Parliament since the party's inception in the 1940s, securing only 28.6% of seats in the House of Representatives.
01:23Leader of the Opposition, Peter Dutton, lost his seat representing Dixon to Labour MP Ailey France, and the Coalition receded further from inner-city seats across the board, making way for independents and Labour members.
01:36The aftermath of the election saw the party in a state of disarray, and things got worse due to a string of events which have plagued its support in the polls.
01:44For starters, in May, the National Senator, Jacinta Nampanjimba Price, defected to the Liberal Party in a bid to secure a leadership position, eventually withdrawing.
01:54The leadership election saw moderate Susan Ley win with 28 votes to Conservative Angus Taylors, 26.
02:00In June, the Coalition temporarily broke up over policy differences initiated by the National Party, who aimed at securing policies which were agreed upon prior to the election.
02:12The two parties then joined back together less than a week later, but disagreements regarding the Coalition's stance on net zero became a focus over following weeks.
02:20In September, Jacinta Price was sacked from the Shadow Cabinet after comments she made regarding Indian Australians, and just last week, Andrew Hastie resigned from the Shadow Cabinet over disagreements regarding the Coalition's immigration policy.
02:34It's fair to say there's been a lot of instability with the Liberal Party, and this is clearly shown in the polls.
02:39As of the 30th of September, Essentials polls had the Coalition on 27%, five points down from its federal election performance in May.
02:48As of the making of this video, we've put together five reasons for the collapse of the Liberal Party.
02:53The first is a lack of policy direction and clarity, which has plagued the party since the pre-campaigns earlier this year.
03:00Following the Liberal Party's defeat, discussions over scrapping net zero have sparked up again.
03:04Conservative members of the Liberal Party have called for it to be scrapped, while moderates insist on keeping it in line with the national consensus.
03:11The debate over immigration has also deeply divided the Coalition, and two members left the Shadow Cabinet over this issue.
03:18The second point is what has been perceived to be weak leadership from its current leader, Susan Lay.
03:23Considering the Coalition break-up and multiple Cabinet reshuffles, the party environment has become a lot more fragmented than it was under previous leader, Peter Dutton.
03:32In the past few weeks, Conservative commentators and journalists alike were describing Andrew Hastie as a forerunner for the Liberal Party leadership.
03:41Some even claiming that the Albanese government has been giving him more attention and challenging him as the real opposition leader in Parliament.
03:49While Hastie himself said in a media conference that he's ruled out a leadership challenge in the near future, both political persuasions have seemingly framed him as a future leader, and Hastie himself has left the door open for a potential leadership challenge in 2026.
04:04The third point is that the Liberal Party just isn't representative of everyday Australians anymore.
04:08Susan Lay herself admitted in her first speech as leader that her party needs to reflect modern Australia and be more representative of everyday people, something which both the Labour Party and progressive media establishment have reinforced.
04:23Historically, the Liberal Party has never really had a core representative base, unlike the Labour Party.
04:28The Liberals make up a group of affluent or upper-middle class voters, business owners, rural folk and older people.
04:35However, in the 1990s, the Liberal Party broadened its appeal to what was coined the Aussie Battler by John Howard, taking on more blue-collar and working-class voters.
04:45However, the implementation of policies such as negative gearing and high-income tax cuts, as well as failing to capture younger voters, has increasingly shifted public perception of the party as a party for the rich that is out of touch with middle-aged Australians and Australians facing economic hardship.
05:01The fourth reason is that Australians as a whole have become a lot more progressive in recent years.
05:07The rise in wealth inequality and the cost-of-living crisis has disproportionately affected younger and middle-aged Australians, which some blame due to too much liberalisation of the economy through policies such as negative gearing, privatisation of government enterprises and the concentration of market power by big corporations.
05:24The party's slow adoption of climate policies, a lack of focus on young people and a vocal conservative faction have also alienated moderate voters and would-be swing voters from the party, seeing those votes disappear to Teal Independents and Labour members.
05:39Lastly, the party's relationship with government sector workers has also become strained, with the party last election pledging to abolish work from home for government employees, before quickly axing the policy.
05:51The final reason is the Liberal Party's issues with rising factionalism.
05:55As it stands, there are two main factions in the Liberal Party, the Moderates, or small-l Liberals, and the Conservatives.
06:01The Moderates have claimed that the party is focusing too much on social issues rather than substantial policies, while the Conservatives have claimed that the Moderates aren't focusing enough on things like immigration, national security, and dealing with work culture.
06:16As a result of all this, the Liberal Party has fallen in the polls, which is seeing the Liberal vote fracture and cause some voters to instead support other parties.
06:23One Nation, a right-wing political party, has doubled its numbers in the polls, which could be due to conservative voters who are dissatisfied with the Liberal Party not being conservative enough.
06:35Meanwhile, Moderates might be giving up on the party due to its division over net zero and their national rights influence.
06:41With all this in mind, things are not looking great for the Liberal Party.
06:45With One Nation gaining traction, the Liberal Party's loss of support could pave the way for a more right-wing populist shift in Australian politics.
06:52If One Nation's surge continues, it could splinter conservative votes, leading to a fragmentation of the right-wing bloc that would further reduce the Liberal Party's ability to reclaim a majority or influence policy in the near future.
07:06The current surge we're seeing is reminiscent of that of Reform UK, where an alternative right party has upended the main opposition party.
07:14If the Moderate faction grows tired of constant compromise, there's a chance they will either split off or form a new centre-right coalition.
07:21This would be a historic change to the Australian political landscape, especially if it results in a new political entity that could reshape the landscape around issues like climate change, social policy and fiscal management.
07:34Alternatively, the Conservatives could double down and further push the party into a more populist, culturally conservative direction.
07:42This would lead the Moderates with fewer reasons to stay and a marginalised position in the remaining inner-city electorates.
07:47As for Susan Ley, her leadership will likely continue to be scrutinised.
07:52If the fragmentation persists, her position as leader might become increasingly untenable.
07:58Her leadership has highlighted the internal rifts within the party, and if she is unable to unite the factions, we could see a leadership challenge emerge, particularly as figures like Andrew Hastie gain more prominence.
08:09The coalition between the Liberal Party and the Nationals is another major factor in this crisis.
08:14The temporary break-up and continued tensions between the two parties are likely to lead to a reworking of their relationship in coming years.
08:23The Nationals' demands for more hard-line stances on issues like net zero and immigration could make it harder for the Liberals to pursue a cohesive policy platform.
08:32It's possible that, in the long term, the Liberal Party that has existed for over 70 years could undergo a significant transformation or even collapse entirely.
08:44If the party fails to resolve its factionalism, its inability to address modern issues like climate change or housing affordability, and continues to alienate younger voters, it could eventually cease to be the dominant centre-right force it once was in Australia.
09:02With the ever-changing media landscape, we know it can be difficult to keep on track of things.
09:09Fortunately, you can keep on top of the news with our monthly magazine Snapshots, which breaks down some of the biggest news stories in the month into easily digestible feature stories, data trend analysis, and investigative pieces.
09:22It also includes the Blindspot section, which aims to highlight stories that have been forgotten or misrepresented by the mainstream media.
09:30If you're looking for change in your media diet, be sure to give Snapshots a try.
09:35You can check it out in our link down below to find out more.
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