In this video we discuss if Albanese will expand parliament and/or implement fixed terms, discussing the challenges to both plans and if they could happen in the near future
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00:00Earlier this year, the Labor Party has been keen to push through its policy agenda unobstructed.
00:05However, growing frustrations regarding unfixed terms, its minority position in the Senate,
00:11and logistical issues regarding the size of Parliament have flared up issues for Labor.
00:16After the election, an inquiry was launched by the government to determine if Parliament should expand for the first time since the 80s.
00:23It comes after substantial growth in Australia's population, which has seen some electorates becoming over or underrepresented.
00:31The government has also quietly expressed interest in establishing fixed terms, which would be a historic change in Australia's political system.
00:39So today, we're going to be talking about what seems to be a quiet policy reform, why the government is doing this, and if the Albanese government will actually make these changes.
00:53So we're going to be breaking this video into two sections, the proposed seat expansions and parliamentary fixed terms.
01:14But before we go ahead, we'd like to provide a small disclaimer that the Albanese government hasn't formally announced plans yet,
01:21but the consensus from both the parties and the mainstream media indicates that Labor likely will.
01:27Alright, so with all of that out of the way, we'll talk about the seat expansions.
01:32So at the start of the month, Special Minister of State Don Farrell launched an inquiry examining whether Parliament should expand.
01:40The Joint Parliamentary Committee on Electoral Matters is set to examine if more politicians should represent voters in the House of Reps and Senate.
01:48Historically, seat expansion has only happened twice in Australia's history, first in 1949 because of rapid population growth after the Second World War,
01:58and the other in 1984 to tackle imbalances in representation and a growing population.
02:04Seed expansion in Australia has only ever happened under Labor governments, with the last substantial expansion in 1984,
02:11where the Hawke government expanded the House from 75 to 121 seats, and the Senate from 36 to 60.
02:19So why do seat expansions need to happen?
02:23Well, the ideal target for representatives is around about 94 to 103,000 people per electorate.
02:30This is to prevent under- or over-representation in Australia, and ensure everyone has a fair say.
02:36On the other hand, expansions can also reduce workloads for politicians, especially those in over-populated electorates.
02:43This is something which Senator Farrell has suggested is becoming an issue.
02:48Senator Farrell has also argued the increase in Australia's population warrants a discussion.
02:53As it stands, there are some electorates in Australia holding well over 130,000 people, while some just have 75,000.
03:00This is primarily caused by uneven population growth, and practical limitations of the Australian Electoral Commission to amend those boundaries.
03:09Ideally, the AEC would try and equalise representation, but a combination of constitutional rules, geography constraints, and population changes can make this extremely difficult to implement.
03:21For starters, all original states under the Constitution are guaranteed five seats in the House, no matter how small the state is.
03:29So Tasmania, with only about 540,000 people, still get five seats, despite its electorates only having around about 75,000 people.
03:38There are also other rules, such as non-contiguous boundaries, changes being limited inside of states, and political balancing which significantly hampers distribution efforts.
03:48You also have to remember that the AEC is technically politically impartial, and as such has to be careful with its boundary re-drawing to avoid gerrymandering.
03:58However, despite the suggested need to expand Parliament, Labour faces four substantial hurdles before anything can even get off the ground.
04:07Firstly, the Coalition has already slashed hopes of partisanship on the issue, of questioning the Government's agenda, and if it's got the right priorities for Australians.
04:17This is important as Labour operates in minority in the Senate, requiring support from other parties to get legislation through.
04:24With hopes of bipartisanship now dashed, this leaves few options.
04:28The Greens and Independents are potentials to be approached on the issue.
04:32However, none of them as of yet have put any form of support behind this plan, and would likely request more details, or potential concessions, over this proposal.
04:42As it stands now, the Greens don't have a position on Parliament's expansion, but have hinted at support, as long as the proposed reforms would make democracy fairer, according to Steph Hodkins May, a Greens spokesperson.
04:55However, the Greens' definition of fairer democracy could be interpreted as more proportional representation, which the two major parties would not like at all.
05:04The second point is, the AEC hasn't planned or prepared for such a project, suggesting that it would have to redistribute the six mainland states, before Parliament could expand.
05:14This could delay the expansion taking effect well into the 2030s.
05:19The third is the public's perception of the plan.
05:22Some voters could see an expansion of Parliament, as government waste.
05:26The expansion would result in increased costs due to staffing and future MP salaries, possibly something voters don't want under the current economic climate.
05:36The last point is that the move could be seen as a substantial power grab by the Labour Party, to essentially lock out the coalition.
05:42With more and more people living in the cities, and less rural areas, it's possible that these seat expansions could split the Conservative vote over multiple electorates, whose boundaries have changed.
05:53Former Liberal Attorney-General George Brandes has argued Labour would gain from urban centres, while the Greens would be advantaged by a larger Senate.
06:01Despite the perceived negatives of the move, the expansion would likely be hugely beneficial to minor parties and independents, especially in the Senate, as the expansion would effectively lower the quota threshold to get elected.
06:13This would almost but guarantee their current seats in the near future, and while not explicitly certain, it would likely make it way easier for them to expand their presence further, as the Senate is voted based on proportional representation.
06:26This is especially beneficial to parties like One Nation and the Greens, which are polled above 10% nationally.
06:33Now let's talk about the second change, which is the fixed terms, which the government has been suggesting.
06:39As it currently stands, the Federal Government uses 3-year unfixed terms, while the rest of the Australian states, excluding Tasmania, use 4-year fixed terms.
06:48The benefits of which could see predictability, stability, and less partisanship or gamesmanship, or political games surrounding elections and polling performance.
06:57However, despite rumours of fixed terms, these are unlikely to occur in the near future.
07:03For starters, Albanese repeatedly had rejected the idea of holding a referendum during this term, after being burned from the failed voice referendum.
07:11This leaves fixed terms off the table until Labour is more keen to explore the idea in the future.
07:17Even if the idea was to get off the ground, he'd likely have to court bipartisanship from the opposition, and most importantly, the Australian public.
07:25To take this into context, only 8 out of the country's 44 referendums passed, and with the Australian public generally being hesitant to constitutional change, along with the requirement of a double majority, it would make any type of reform a major task.
07:40Holding another referendum could also open up further public discourse, and opportunities for political opponents to attack Labour.
07:47The voice to parliament referendum cost Australians $411 million, which the coalition attacked Labour for, as the cost of living crisis was emerging.
07:56So, where do things go from here?
07:59Well, constitutional experts are expected to give evidence to the government's inquiry, which is due to be handed back with interim reports in mid-2026.
08:08With planning likely to be in the early phases, and due to the sensitive nature of these issues, it's highly unlikely that we'll see a seed expansion, or fixed terms in the near future.
08:18But such reforms later in the government's term is not entirely out of the question.
08:23With the ever-changing media landscape, we know it can be difficult to keep on track of things.
08:29Fortunately, you can keep on top of the news with our monthly magazine, Snapshots, which breaks down some of the biggest news stories in the month, into easily digestible feature stories, data trend analysis, and investigative pieces.
08:42It also includes the Blindspot section, which aims to highlight stories that have been forgotten or misrepresented by the mainstream media.
08:51If you're looking for change in your media diet, be sure to give Snapshots a try.
08:55You can check it out in our link down below to find out more.
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