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00:00Bringing that heat on a Thursday morning, an NFL Thursday morning.
00:04I can't say it enough, man.
00:05It just rolls right off the tongue, Joe.
00:07Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, week number one, game number one,
00:10Thursday night football to kick off your season.
00:13It is fantastic.
00:14You know what else is still going on, Joe?
00:16Major League Baseball, and that's what we're going to get to now.
00:19Big game in the afternoon.
00:20By the way, it is a six-game card tonight.
00:22Some decent options here.
00:23Starts between Milwaukee and Philadelphia.
00:26Ranger Suarez, left-handed pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies,
00:28going up against righty Freddy Peralta.
00:30The line in this game, minus 120s to minus 125s,
00:33depending on where you're shopping at, and a total of seven and a half.
00:36If you look at the pitching matchup, I should say, over the past month,
00:40Ranger Suarez, a 4-10 ERA, but a low Sierra number of 3.55.
00:44But look at Freddy Peralta.
00:45His ERA over the past 30 days, Joe, 0.32, and a Sierra of 3.53.
00:51So analytically, they're the same.
00:53ERA-wise, they're not.
00:54But the Phillies bounce back on offense today,
00:56and Milwaukee just continue their winning ways with Freddy on the mound.
01:00I mean, Donnie, we haven't seen something like this at this point in the season in a while.
01:05We're talking about the best team in Major League Baseball record perspective,
01:09I can argue, altogether.
01:11They have a pitcher who, in the month of August, didn't allow a run.
01:16He had allowed a run in his last four starts.
01:19That's 23 innings pitched.
01:21That is a, for those math at home that aren't, well, 0.00 ERA.
01:29That's the entire month.
01:31Are you kidding me?
01:32That is absolute.
01:33And why are we not talking about him for the National League Cy Young situation here?
01:38Listen, Suarez has actually hung in there while he worked out some of the kinks here for the
01:43fills.
01:44So I don't think this is going to be a very high-scoring game.
01:47I feel like this is going to be playoff baseball.
01:50I think it's going to be much closer to a pitcher's duel than what we saw last night with all those
01:55runs.
01:56I'm willing to look at the under with these two guys on the mound.
01:59How about yesterday, too?
02:00Christian Yelich got scratched in that game.
02:02Didn't matter.
02:02As I said, they played five runs in the first inning off Aaron Nola, who usually takes an
02:05inning or two to get going and then settles in.
02:07You can't afford that, though, when you're playing good baseball teams.
02:10We'll see who wins this game today in Milwaukee.
02:12Slight favorite, as we said, for the Milwaukee Brewers.
02:14Game number two, we'll talk about a 640 start from Pittsburgh.
02:17If you're struggling on offense, as the Dodgers did yesterday, they didn't play to run.
02:21They're going to get Paul Skeens today on the mound.
02:23Skeens probably going to win the NL Cy Young Award.
02:25But look at this price point here.
02:27You might be saying like, oh, Dodgers struggling.
02:28Skeens at home.
02:29Sign me up.
02:30Blake Snell's also been very, very good.
02:32Price point around a minus 120 to a minus 125, depending on where you're shopping at.
02:36In a total, that's listed at seven.
02:38Last 30 days, Blake Snell, 2.54 ERA.
02:41Paul Skeens, 2.91.
02:42Both of these guys with elite XFIP numbers here.
02:45What gives in this game?
02:46I'll tell you right now.
02:47The expectation is not for runs, Joe.
02:50No.
02:51The first run wins this game here.
02:53But why would the Dodgers be a favorite at PNC Park in this part?
02:59Like, you've got to be kidding me.
03:01They're on the verge of getting swept again.
03:03And now they've got Paul Skeens on the mound to go against here.
03:08And he has been absolutely, we know this, lights out at home here.
03:13And, I mean, call me crazy.
03:16It's not like Blake Snell hasn't been great also.
03:19So we've got two dominant pitchers going at one another here.
03:24No runs here.
03:25It's been a bet of mine all season long.
03:28If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
03:29The under in the first five, it's down to three and a half with Skeens at PNC Park.
03:35I do not trust the Dodger hitters to get to him.
03:38Also, what about Blake Snell in over six and a half strikeouts, Donnie?
03:43Would it shock you if he gets double-digit Ks against this Pittsburgh lineup?
03:49No, and they need him, man.
03:49They need him to go long.
03:50Six innings, seven innings, eight innings if you can here to get this win.
03:53Because you're trying to stay out of the Padres who are struggling.
03:55But you yourself looking to snap back out of it.
03:57Got to beat the Pittsburgh Pirates, but a tall task sometimes, beating Paul Skeens.
04:01Maybe he's got to wait him out into the fifth, sixth, and seventh innings there and try to strike.
04:05Cleveland and Tampa.
04:06Sometimes just look at those games at Tampa and say, I don't care who's on the mound.
04:09Just give me the over.
04:10You would have been correct last night.
04:11Tampa lit it up.
04:12Seattle did play four runs in that game.
04:14An easy over.
04:15Today, it's going to be Logan Allen versus Ryan Pepeo.
04:187.35 start.
04:19Total this game opened up at eight.
04:20That's risen to eight and a half again.
04:22I'm just going to take auto overs in that building.
04:24A price point here, though, for Tampa Bay, right around a minus 150, depending on where
04:28you're shopping at.
04:29Logan Allen's last 30 days, not very good, Joe.
04:32Six ERA, high XFIP, high Sierra, and that Tampa Bay offense flies at home.
04:38I mean, the hottest team in American League, well, really, and you could make the argument
04:43of Major League Baseball right now, guys, is the Tampa Bay Rays.
04:46They're now above 500.
04:48They've won six straight, nine of their last 11.
04:50And, oh, yeah, by the way, Donnie, they have three sweeps in the past four series.
04:55They swept the cards, the Nats, and they just swept the Mariners here after they out hit
05:01them 25 to 11.
05:02They outscored them in that series there.
05:05And, by the way, what are they now?
05:07Within two and a half games of the last American League wildcard spot?
05:12Call me crazy.
05:13If it ain't broke, do not fix it.
05:15I am not fixing a team that can hit home runs in that ballpark versus a Guardians team
05:21that can't hit home runs.
05:23I'll lay it, the run and a half, with the Rays.
05:26Junior Kamenaro coming straight to you.
05:2840 bombs on the season.
05:30Let's take a look at the New York Yankees and the Houston Astros.
05:32A lot of runs scored yesterday.
05:33Do we get the same today?
05:35Rodon, the lefty on the mound, versus Christian Javier.
05:37A 740 start in H-Town.
05:39Total crossed the board at 8.5.
05:41But a favorite for the Yankees, open up overnight, mid-130s, still seeing most outlets here
05:45reporting in the mid-130s.
05:47Carlos Rodon over the past 30 days.
05:49Joe, 3.15 ERA.
05:50Christian Javier, 3.38.
05:52But those metrics are a little bit higher analytically.
05:54Do we get runs down there at, I don't know, Minute Maid, Enron, whatever they're calling it
05:59these days?
06:00Wow.
06:01Enron.
06:01That was a blast from the past.
06:03Well done there.
06:05Listen, Rodon is on the mound.
06:07Javier has not exactly been sharp.
06:09Still working some of the rust off.
06:12But the Yankees win Rodon's games.
06:14He has consistently been that guy that shows up when they need him the most.
06:19And they need him in this spot to wipe the stink off in a big way from what just happened
06:25last night.
06:26But I don't trust the Yankee bullpen.
06:28Do you trust the Houston bullpen?
06:29No.
06:30To me, this is all about the first five.
06:33I'll lay it with the Yankees here.
06:35I expect them to get the Javier before the Astros get the Rodon.
06:40Do we get a bounce back tonight for the Kansas City Royals?
06:42I mean, my goodness.
06:43They faced a pitcher yesterday, Joe, that had just all like the AAA starts of five ERA
06:48and came in and pitched extremely well.
06:50And they, talking about the Angels, beat the Kansas City Royals.
06:52Today, it's Hendricks versus Cameron, the lefty on the mound.
06:55Favorite for Kansas City.
06:56No surprise between that 152 to 158 range, depending where you're shopping at.
07:00But a total that opened up at eight and a half, that now sees nine.
07:02And I agree with that.
07:03Hendricks isn't a good pitcher.
07:04And Noah Cameron coming in here last 30 days, 433 ERA, 5.52 X, fifth number.
07:10I think we might see runs.
07:11I thought we'd get runs out of Kansas City last night.
07:12It didn't happen.
07:13I think they hit tonight.
07:15Oh, they are just such a frustrating team.
07:17I mean, they've lost, what, four out of their last five games here now.
07:22They're on the verge of losing again to the Angels.
07:26Now, the only saving grace is that Cameron has been really good for them here.
07:31So, my thought is, yes, I'd like to back them, but I'd also like to back them early.
07:38I saw five as a total in the first five here.
07:41Hendricks is awful, but can we really trust the Royals?
07:45Can't.
07:46Yeah.
07:46So, I'm going to go up and under the five in the first five.
07:49Yeah, it's awful.
07:50Sounds like one of seven for runners in scoring position at that point for the Kansas City
07:54Royals in this one.
07:55You want some?
07:56Oh, no, it's fall weather conditions.
07:58You come to the right place, and that's the Minnesota Twins taking on the Chicago White
08:01Sox.
08:01In Minnesota tonight, Joe, the highs won't get out of the 60s, and there's rain in the
08:05forecast tonight.
08:07Total is at eight and a half, minus 155 or so for Minnesota as a favorite.
08:11Taj Bradley hasn't been very good.
08:12Both of these teams can hit, but you want to talk about non-hitting environment tonight?
08:16You're probably getting it here.
08:17Let me just do one quick check, too, of where the wind is blowing.
08:20Oh, yeah, Joe.
08:20Wind's blowing in at nine miles per hour.
08:22Good luck, Minnesota.
08:23I really thought we were going to get it over last night, Donnie, and we almost did.
08:29We almost got it to extra innings.
08:31The White Sox almost blew that lead there, but now they're going for a season-high win
08:36streak and a series sweep against the Twins.
08:41Stop it.
08:42They can't do that.
08:42The team with the worst record in the American League?
08:45Uh, yeah, no.
08:47I will not be counting on a sweep here tonight.
08:49I'll give it to Minnesota to be able to get at least one here.
09:00Let's keep the vibes going, the mojo going, and the wins, more wins equals more wins, Joe.
09:06Where are we going tonight?
09:07Looks like Major League Baseball, huh?
09:08Yeah, listen, if it ain't broke, Donnie, we ain't fixing it.
09:12We'll go back to the diamond here tonight, and I am heading back to PNC Park, where the Dodgers
09:19and their feast or famine situation the last couple of weeks is hilarious.
09:26The worst game that you have to try to get, avoid being swept at PNC Park, is going up
09:32against Paul Skeens, which is exactly what they've done.
09:35Listen, the guy's a 1.65 ERA at home.
09:39The only team he seems to have a problem with is the Brewers, which is not really a problem.
09:45I mean, he's even dealt at Coors Field and dominated, and I don't think he's going to
09:50have an issue here at all tonight, limiting this Dodgers lineup that just can't seem to
09:56get it together.
09:57But on the flip side, Blake Snell, the guy has been absolutely phenomenal since he's come
10:02off the IL, 2.54 ERA, 5 August starts.
10:07He has struck out 34 and 28 innings.
10:10He is going to strike out a lot of Pittsburgh Pirates.
10:14It's always been a bet, an automatic bet for me.
10:16Paul Skeens, under in the first five, three and a half, I don't care.
10:21It is going to be maybe a 1-0 game heading into the sixth inning, under in the first five
10:26for me.
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