How Significant Are Syria Parliament Elections for Its Stability and International Standing?

CGTN Europe

Samuel Ramani, Associate Fellow at RUSI think tank and CEO of Pangea Geopolitical Risk spoke to CGTN Europe about Syria parliament elections.

Transcript

00:00Samuel Romani, Associate Fellow at the RUSI Think Tank and CEO of the consultancy Pangea Geopolitical Risks.

00:06Sam, welcome back to the program. Good to see you again.

00:10How significant is this for Syria?

00:15Well, I mean, I think it's a real milestone for Syria because even if these elections are not fully democratic,

00:21because you don't have the voting in the Jews' areas like Sueda or some of the Kurdish-controlled areas like Hasakah

00:26or other places where there's security problems like Raqqa,

00:29they're still the most democratic elections that Syria has ever had in living memory for anyone.

00:34I mean, the 250 seats in the old parliament when the Ba'athist regime was there

00:38used to be reserved entirely for Assad loyalists.

00:41And now al-Sharah is only responsible for appointing one-third.

00:45And so it's not really fully democratic, but it's the most democratic election Syria has ever had.

00:49And they've managed to be achieved with limited, so far, communal violence or strife, which is another big success.

00:55What are your expectations for the outcome of this election when we get the results?

01:00Well, I think that al-Sharah is obviously going to be able to use this parliament to maintain broader power.

01:09And the government and the parliament is probably going to be in lockstep with HTS's, now it's suspended, but HTS's goals.

01:15And I think that there also will be some efforts at inclusivity, and there will be some efforts as, you know,

01:24maybe to appoint some women or some minorities into some positions to encourage reconstruction investments.

01:30But I think there's still a long way to go on that front and on that point of view.

01:33So, but I do think that this outcome is going to lead to potentially more investments in the country.

01:39What we've seen from Saudi Arabia, for example, is debt forgiveness, but not necessarily large capital infusions.

01:44Now it's time for capital infusions from the Saudis, the Emiratis, the Qataris, and maybe even the Americans and the Europeans,

01:51who have now lifted the sanctions on Syria for the most part.

01:54Do you think the election results will be accepted?

01:56I mean, can the new parliament bring stability, or are there still challenges ahead?

02:04I mean, obviously it depends on how much power the parliament is basically given.

02:08If it's under the Assad era system, basically it was just a rubber stamp,

02:12and it was just kind of a way of reaffirming the power of the old government.

02:16But under this new government, it may be possible that they actually are involved in directly overseeing reconstruction projects

02:22in some of the war-torn areas.

02:24They may be involved in coordinating energy supply deals, maybe ameliorating or assuaging some of the budgetary problems

02:31that we've seen in Syria, and creating a more stable financial system and architecture.

02:35So if they can pass legislation that they're involved in regulatory reforms, they're involved in reconstruction,

02:40then this parliament actually has the ability to exert some power,

02:44and that will lead to more confidence in the Syrian system and more investment.

02:47But alternatively, if al-Sharab just kind of stuffs the parliament with loyalists and allies

02:51and gives it limited constitutional powers,

02:53then it could look like another dictatorship and the investment in the stability of Syria could be imperiled.

03:00So it really depends on how much power this parliament has

03:02and how much al-Sharab actually entrusts it with.

03:06Syria's been slowly restoring diplomatic ties with its neighbours

03:11and returning to the international community in some shape or form.

03:15How might this diplomatic thaw influence what's going inside the country in its domestic political process?

03:26Well, I think that obviously Syria now has got a much wider array of partners to be able to work with and consider,

03:33whereas the previous government of Bashar al-Assad was primarily dependent on Russia and Iran,

03:38Syria's got the whole world open to them.

03:40I mean, even the Russians, they have decent relationships with Putin and al-Sharab in establishing talk.

03:44I mean, there are obviously some issues in the international stage that al-Sharab wants to kind of iron out.

03:49One of them is obviously Israel and their tendency to back the Druze as well as carry out unilateral military strikes.

03:55The other is Turkey and the whole situation with the Kurds.

03:58But I think that al-Sharab will be confident that if he can get a stable parliament

04:01and international recognition that these elections were held somewhat successfully,

04:05that he will have more bargaining power in the normalization talks with Israel that will inevitably transpire

04:10and also future talks with Turkey on managing and mitigating the Kurdish issue in a way

04:17that's more acceptable to broader international investors.

04:20So he has to kind of thread a lot of needles.

04:24But I think that these elections could be good for Syria's international standing

04:27and allow Syria to actually negotiate itself in a position which is on its own terms.

04:33And moreover, there's lots of Syrians who are nostalgic for it being a power in the Arab world,

04:37like it was when Hafez al-Assad was in power or during the 1950s and 1960s.

04:42And this gives Syria a chance to assert itself not just as a war-torn country that's recovering,

04:46but also the future power that shapes the Arab and regional international order.

04:51Samuel, good to see you.

04:52Samuel Romani, Associate Fellow at the RUSI Fintech.

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