Andrew Freris on Markets | US Tech Overvaluation, AI Rally & Emerging Markets Outlook - video Dailymotion

ET NOW

🌍 Welcome to Global News Hub – your trusted source for fast and reliable updates from 🇺🇸 USA, 🇮🇳 India, and 🌐 worldwide. From 🔥 breaking news and 🏛️ politics to 💼 business, 💻 technology, 🎬 entertainment, and more, we bring you daily updates ⏰. Follow now to stay informed anytime, anywhere 📲.

Transcript

00:00discussion forward with andrew ferris joining us on the show right now hi andrew good to be

00:05speaking with you firstly with respect to the u.s markets this whole ai related theme continues to

00:10do well uh help us with your take on that how much more uh lex to the rally do you believe uh

00:17that still has because for the u.s markets the run-up continues and the ai team is indeed

00:24leaving it from the front well there are three things here first the u.s market in relative

00:30terms is the worst performing effectively of all the big markets if you have put your money on the

00:35nsp at the beginning of the year year to date it is about five percent up if you have put it in the

00:41hansen index it would have been twenty percent up if you have put it into sorry it would have been

00:47thirty percent up on the nikki would have been twenty percent up and on the kospi it would have

00:51been fifty percent up so there is a complete misunderstanding with the smp hitting higher

00:59record levels and its performance its performance is just about that of a good deposit with a u.s

01:06dollar bank it's as simple as that my concern however is that that performance is driven primarily

01:12by a very small number of firms all of them concentrating around artificial intelligence

01:17and the problem with that is is that there are forward expenses either planned or actually

01:25incurred under no way they can possibly be covered by their current or forward earnings which means

01:34that this is a guaranteed over investment and over valuation of their expectations so my advice to my

01:44clients is stay clear out of u.s dollar shares particularly tech shares and simply concentrate on different

01:53stocks so looking at the overall performance i'm not saying this is going to be a crash this is going

01:59to be poor relatively speaking the american stocks stock market is underperforming everybody else

02:06except unfortunately 76 which is about less than two percent year to date in u.s dollar terms

02:12all the numbers are given you are in u.s dollar terms

02:16right and we're just wondering um what's the take on emerging markets then and especially markets

02:24like india and china which have you know relative uh flows in proportion to each other i just wanted

02:30to understand what the setup for india and china is looking like while there is still a question mark

02:35on the tariff deal with the u.s for both well i just told you that if looking through asian markets they are massively

02:44over performing the smp okay particularly the sensec sorry particularly the cospy particularly the hong kong

02:52and even in fact uh the csi or this or the shanghai index so all i can tell you is is just simply

03:03in terms of valuations and performance they are doing quite all right as far as the sensex is uh is

03:10concerned this reflects two things reflects the kind of the malaise from investors point of view as to

03:17what's happening in india because there is nothing exciting as opposed to anything negative coming out

03:24the rba has cut interest rates uh the modi administration is about to cut taxes on expenditures

03:32on consumer expenditures and also of course there is the overlying continuously threat of the final

03:40tariff uh agreement with united states and in fact what has also happened with

03:46just recently with uh the visas but the visas is uh is specific and it is a small percentage of the

03:56overall indian economy except of course it touches very sensitive parts and as far as china is concerned

04:03the same goes you know the chinese economy continues to grow at five percent with deflation it's a very

04:08peculiar situation because of course one says where does this growth go most definitely doesn't go on

04:15consumer spending unfortunately continues it continues to be relying on on investment which is a little

04:22bit irrelevant right now in the case of china given what is happening to their overall expert performance

04:28the threat to their experts from united states the experts are doing very very well right now

04:34until of course their bite on their prices okay begins to actually bite

04:40all right but andrew um just wondering that uh given the fact that it's not just the equity markets

04:48that are on on a run-up with respect to the u.s market specifically but the precious metals they also

04:54continue to do well what a move is what we are getting to see on gold and silver but andrew i know you're

05:00not an expert but if you can help us understand what sort of invest investor sentiment um is holding up

05:07right now with respect to the asset allocation was it what it is telling you right now well i'm sorry

05:15i might not be an expert on individual shares okay but i can tell you i'm a bit of an expert on what's

05:20happened to the equity markets and as i've told you the best in inverted commas perceived uh performing

05:27markets which is united states is underperforming massively everybody else and the reason for that is not

05:33only an excessive valuation because it is also being driven in new heights by a very small number

05:39of equities and this is lethal in any market you cannot rely on the market even doing five percent

05:46year to date and it is driven by three or four artificial intelligence companies who are spending as it is no

05:54more tomorrow on their uh data centers and at the same time not telling us anything where they're going

06:03to get the revenue to cover that remember if i spend a if i spend 500 million billion in the next 10

06:10years i need to know what is the kind of revenue year in year out between now and the 10 years that is

06:17going to cover that expenditures and produce a return and there's complete silence over that and there is

06:23growing but really growing uh uh let's say uh concern as to whether they are going to simply

06:32over invest and they will end up with a lot of uh either profit not profit making but definitely

06:39loss making assets great to have you on the show thanks for your insights as always let's talk about

06:45what our market setup is looking like than this

06:48you

06:49you

06:51you

06:53you

06:55you

06:57you

06:59you

07:01you

Andrew Freris on Markets | US Tech Overvaluation, AI Rally & Emerging Markets Outlook

Category

Transcript

Be the first to comment

Recommended