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00:00Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. You're watching India tonight with me, Sumita Karir, and our top story tonight.
00:05Well, in a significant push to bolster India-U.S. ties amidst escalating trade tensions,
00:10two senior Indian ministers are in the United States at the moment.
00:14Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal is leading a high-level delegation in Washington
00:18to advance negotiations on a landmark bilateral trade agreement,
00:23which aims to double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030.
00:27Now, this despite recent U.S. tariffs on Indian goods over oil imports from Russia.
00:33Meanwhile, External Affairs Minister Dr. S.J. Shankar is all set to hold crucial bilateral talks
00:38with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in New York.
00:41In just a short while from now, he will be likely addressing visa fee and strategic cooperation
00:49and that on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.
00:52Now, these engagements signal a renewed diplomatic momentum, even as challenges like the H-1B visa hike
00:59loom large for Indian professionals.
01:01What do these meetings essentially mean for India-U.S. ties?
01:06Let's bring on board a guest who's joining us tonight on the show.
01:11Joining us now is Mr. Byron Singh.
01:14He's the MD of ZipFIA's investment migration company.
01:20Thank you very much, Mr. Singh, for taking the time out and speaking to us here on ET Now.
01:24Your first thoughts on this visit that's been undertaken by two cabinet ministers,
01:29two union ministers from India, Dr. S.J. Shankar and Minister Piyush Goyal.
01:33Yeah, hi, Sumita.
01:38So this is a very important phase that our two important ministers are in U.S.
01:45And in this time, there is a huge reform and the new change which has been imposed by the Trump administration.
01:51This is also creating a huge geopolitical distress and kind of psychological change in the people and family
01:59and the workers, H-1B petition workers who are working in the U.S.
02:04So this is a very important phase where the Indian government should also negotiate
02:08for opening the sub-economic hub for the IT companies who are operating in the U.S.
02:16so that they get benefits in operating and outsourcing back in India.
02:20And the changes is for not this time.
02:23The White House has already confirmed that it is for the next year.
02:28The reform is going to change.
02:29Though the U.S. government is going to make a huge income from these deposits of $100,000,
02:36but on the long run, they are going to lose a lot of skilled talents, innovations and technology.
02:43And the startups are going to hit very hard on these fees.
02:47So this may bring a very big change back to India.
02:49Absolutely, Mr. Singh, there is a lot of uncertainty that really persists as far as that particular ruling,
02:58that particular policy by the United States is concerned.
03:00Let me also bring on board Professor Madhav Das Nalapath.
03:04He is the Vice Chairman at Manipal Advanced Research Group.
03:06Thank you very much, Mr. Nalapath, for taking the time out and speaking to us here on ET.
03:09Now, your first thoughts on the fact that Dr. S. J. Shankar is expected to meet with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio,
03:16especially even as Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal is in the United States.
03:20The H-1B visa fee is an issue that affects Indians and particularly those that are currently in the United States.
03:27So what are the big expectations, in your opinion?
03:31What are you anticipating will transpire between J. Shankar and Rubio?
03:36Look, the fact of the matter is the H-1B visa is not good for India as much as good for the United States.
03:44Professor Nalapath, I believe you're on mute. If you could please unmute yourself.
03:49No, I'm unmuted. Can you hear me now?
03:54Yes, absolutely. Go ahead, Mr. Nalapath.
03:56Yeah. Look, I want to say that the H-1B visa is important for the U.S. as well, to ensure that the U.S. also grows.
04:06Its tech sector grows and its advantage over China grows.
04:13By blocking off Indians, you are denying a very important source of intellectual talent.
04:23And you're doing that to the benefit of China.
04:25It makes no sense from a geopolitical perspective.
04:29So I'm not sure that this kind of situation is going to continue for some more time.
04:34I think already reality is beginning to kick in.
04:38And the reality of China is also there.
04:41It's been there for a long, long time.
04:43Secretary Rubio and various others are quite aware of the threat from China, as indeed was Donald Trump, till about a few weeks ago.
04:54But so the fact of the matter is, you are shutting off, essentially, the ability of the United States to compete with China when you're shutting off Indians.
05:04And may I point out that Indians in the United States, Indian Americans as well, as Indians who are there on H-1B visa, they are, if you look at it per capita, the most disciplined and the least lawless group in the United States.
05:25The most disciplined and the highest number of taxpayers, the taxes they pay are very, very high.
05:34So, frankly, this is not just shooting yourself in the foot.
05:38It's shooting yourself right in the face.
05:40So, I mean, I'm sure Secretary Rubio understands that.
05:45I'm going to talk about that.
05:47I'm also sure about one more thing.
05:48We are not going to concede on agriculture and dairy because it involves the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of our people.
05:57And we are not going to concede on that.
05:59And the United States needs to accept that.
06:01And we also need to accept that these tariffs are not good for the U.S. in particular.
06:10Absolutely, Professor Nalapad, given the fact that these tariffs are only elevating inflation in the United States.
06:16But we'll come to that point about tariffs and these trade negotiations, which are going on as we speak between Minister Goel and, of course, his U.S. counterpart.
06:26But first, let me get you back to the point that I made, you know, when we introduced you on the show, that essentially is about a meeting between Dr. S.J. Shankar and Marco Rubio.
06:36What are you expecting is going to be the outcome of this meeting?
06:40Look, if I can be frank, I don't see any immediate outcome.
06:45The J.J. Shankar is an extremely talented diplomat.
06:50And Marco Rubio is fully aware of the threat from China.
06:53You just check and see his statement, you know, previous to his becoming the Secretary of State.
07:00His statements as a senator.
07:01He's extremely aware of the importance of India and the U.S. working together.
07:06But the point is, as a secretary to the cabinet minister level in the United States Trump administration, he can't divulge very far from the official line of President Trump, who seems to be on a rampage against India.
07:21But the good news is the meeting is taking place.
07:24The good news is the board meeting has taken place.
07:28And that's a very good sign.
07:29It means that for God's summit, there's a very good likelihood of Donald Trump coming to India.
07:35And I think that would be a good location to bury the hatchet.
07:38Let me remind you, Prime Minister Modi has responded very coolly, very calmly, and very politely to whatever verbal sallies and policy salvos he is getting from the United States.
07:53I think that's the right policy to follow.
07:55As far as Minister J.J. Shankar is concerned, he is very, very able.
08:00And I'm very certain he will catch out the case of India, which is a very, very strong case.
08:07The same goes with Piyush Goyal, who understands the mind of the Prime Minister as well as Minister Jaishankar does.
08:15So the reality is, the Prime Minister has been a president of India-U.S. friendship from the beginning.
08:21He made sure India joined the Quad.
08:24India signed the Ford Foundation Agreement.
08:26And that, I am very certain, the relations will go back on track, given that reality.
08:37Right.
08:38Professor Nalapat, in fact, you know, lots of interesting outcomes are anticipated.
08:43We'll have to sort of track the trajectory of where this relationship really goes and what are some of the irritants
08:48and whether the United States will be ready to sort of work on removing those irritants in the U.S.-India relationship,
08:55given the fact that Marco Rubio himself has stated just a couple of days back that India and U.S. relationship
09:01is one of the most significant relationships for U.S. in this century.
09:05I'll come back to you in just a bit to expand a bit more on that.
09:08But let me go to Mr. Singh.
09:09Mr. Singh, when we talk about the H-1B visa fee increase,
09:13that policy that the Donald Trump administration has undertaken,
09:16does the United States have enough tech talent to replace these workers,
09:19even as Donald Trump states that by way of this policy,
09:23he's essentially pushing American companies to hire more Americans?
09:30Actually, not, Sumita.
09:31This scenario, the reality is not the same.
09:36Politically, it's all MAGA and driven by the policies that, okay,
09:41they are trying to make more of a kind of a negotiation with the Indian government
09:46or to put a more pressure.
09:49But on the reality, the entire industry rely on Indian talents.
09:52And this 70% of this contribution is not a small contribution.
09:56And this contribution, the fees, if they are increasing,
10:00the companies, the corporations are going to have a huge impact on their workforce.
10:04And the technology will definitely start moving.
10:08And this is where the negotiation should happen with the Indian government.
10:12And I'm sure the Jais Sankar and the ministry is there.
10:15So they should understand that this is not about the future.
10:18This is about the current situation.
10:20Because there is a huge backlog for the Indian families
10:22and the Indian corporates who are living in the U.S.
10:25And even it's not about the job.
10:27It's about the quality of life.
10:29It's about creating the panic situation in the families
10:31and the future uncertainties.
10:34So this fees, yes, for the startups and for the mid-sized companies,
10:39this is a disaster decision.
10:41And, of course, the Indian diplomatic decision.
10:44And this will damage the trade relation with the U.S. and India in the long term.
10:49Because it's not about the IT.
10:51There are a lot of semiconductors, STEM companies,
10:54and there are a lot of research labs.
10:56This is all going to get affected with this decision.
10:59And I believe that, yes, there should be a proper negotiation,
11:04should happen with the government.
11:06There must be a kind of a peace should be given.
11:09Absolutely. It remains to be seen whether this is an issue
11:12that both the sides will be addressing as far as, you know,
11:15these particular meetings are concerned.
11:16However, sources are telling IT now that India is looking to raise
11:20this particular issue at the diplomatic level.
11:23But let me come to you, Professor Nala.
11:24But can the United States be trusted, given the fact that Donald Trump
11:28has called the Prime Minister his friend?
11:30He stated that India-U.S. ties are on good footing,
11:32but his administration at the same time has hiked the H-1B visa fee,
11:36along with several other policy moves that have come in the past few days.
11:41How will India now move on its U.S. strategy going forward?
11:45The first thing it can do is speed up the pace of domestic reform.
11:50The fact of the matter is, even now, in many sectors,
11:55investing in India is a nightmare.
11:58And during Modi 3.0, this is the exact crisis that now the Prime Minister
12:03is confronting and which can bring out the best in him
12:07and the best in the government.
12:08We need to reform several of our tax laws, several of our own tariff laws,
12:15several of our own regulations on industry and services,
12:20and we have to ensure that we can attract from abroad.
12:24So we don't have to have people going there.
12:26They will want to come to India.
12:29So I think this kind of a major reform overhaul is overdue,
12:35and I'm looking forward to that reform really getting kick-started
12:40by this hard kick that India has got, courtesy of President Trump,
12:45and being completed, the rollout being completed by Modi 3.0.
12:52That is absolutely essential to generate the kind of growth we need
12:56to avoid large-scale youth unemployment.
12:59And you've seen across the neighborhood, you've seen the Philippines, for example,
13:02just now the problems that come with youth unemployment and the youth,
13:08you know, frankly, I mean, you've seen that, as I said, in all these countries.
13:14And let's not kid ourselves that it won't happen in India.
13:17It can happen in India, but strong reforms can ensure that it does not.
13:23And I have every confidence under Prime Minister Modi there will be strong reforms
13:27because now it's a question of the future of India.
13:31It's not just a question of six months or one year.
13:34It's a question of the future of India.
13:36We don't want to see India in a situation similar to what some of our neighboring countries have faced.
13:44We want to see a strong, prosperous India, a vixit Bharat.
13:48And for that, you need a vixit mind for reform.
13:54And I'm very certain that those minds are going to be chosen and put to work
13:58and that these reforms are going to happen.
14:01This is a rude shock.
14:03And I think that rude shock can bring out the best in our government,
14:08led by Prime Minister Modi, and it can bring out the best in our industrialists,
14:13all of whom basically, I mean, many of whom are weaned on this foreign import, foreign import.
14:20Well, they have a problem now.
14:22So I think when there's so much of local talent that the whole world is looking at,
14:28Germany, UK, United, all these countries,
14:32then I think our own companies need to ensure that that talent is utilized.
14:38We do more to utilize that rather than providing jobs to outsiders.
14:42Let's provide jobs to our own people.
14:49Absolutely, Professor Nalapat.
14:51In fact, the Indian government has been looking at boosting domestic production,
14:56domestic consumption.
14:57And of course, the Prime Minister just yesterday gave a clarion call to the nation once again
15:02on becoming self-reliant and not becoming reliant on Wideshi products,
15:07but manufacturing Swideshi products.
15:09And of course, manufacturing, not just for India, but for the world as well.
15:13But Professor Nalapat, even though both sides, India and the United States,
15:17spoke about how the talks were positive, trade talks were positive,
15:20and the talks now need to be fast-tracked,
15:22what sticking point do you see between United States and India,
15:26particularly with respect to this round of talks that's currently underway in the United States?
15:30Look, the fact is that we have to respect each other's red lines.
15:36It can't be a situation where we respect the U.S. red lines,
15:39and they don't respect our red lines.
15:42And, you know, I mean, you've seen what happened, the farmer's agitation.
15:47And you've seen the, you know, the way it was handled was, again, very diplomatic.
15:51And I think as a consequence, that agitation fizzled out.
15:56But the reality is that that is what we will be facing if we agree to some of these outrageous demands.
16:02And these demands have been made for the first time in this manner.
16:07It's either or.
16:08And you can't have the situation in which, you know, I mean, either you accept my terms or no terms.
16:15There are no other terms.
16:17And what are these terms?
16:18The maximum terms.
16:20I mean, this is not a way of negotiating.
16:22It's a way of losing friends.
16:24And across the world, the U.S. under Donald Trump is losing its credibility as security partner.
16:32And that again goes to the benefit of China.
16:34The Chinese will then step in.
16:37They'll try to fill the void.
16:39And eventually the U.S. will be a big loser.
16:42And its partners and allies who relied on it will also be losers.
16:46Absolutely.
16:47So I think President Trump, you better reset yourself quickly.
16:51We're too late for the U.S.
16:56Right, Professor Nalapath.
16:58And this, even as Russia, India, China are only getting closer.
17:02In fact, many other countries will also hit out at the United States for its unilateral and protectionist trading policies.
17:08We'll dwell upon that point in just a bit.
17:10But let me come to you, Varun Singh.
17:13Mr. Singh, how do you think this policy of H-1B visa hike is going to pan out,
17:19given the fact that the track record of Donald Trump actually rolling out policy and their implementation has not been very smooth?
17:26And secondly, I want to ask you, is it the end of the American dream for India's techies?
17:30Sumitra, somewhat Dr. Nalapath has made it very clear that the U.S. government is going to, they are hitting or not on their toes, they are hitting on their face.
17:44And this is what it is, because this is, I see this as an opportunity by the Indian government.
17:52And the fees which they have hiked it, this doesn't look reasonable for the small size or big size companies at all.
17:58Though they are going to increase their funds and their earnings while making the government income will increase while making this fees high.
18:05But on the long term, they are going to not attract global talent and innovation with this.
18:12And H-1B has been the very strong magnet for attracting all the top talents across the globe.
18:19And if this is the psychology, if they want to play with, I don't believe that any Indian smart workers will prefer to go to U.S.
18:28for uncertainties to have a residency or a kind of a settlement there.
18:33In terms of the students, upcoming students also, this will be a big distress.
18:37And I don't think this is going to work on a long term.
18:39They may have to reform.
18:41And this pause has been done already by the White House for the next session, for the next year they are going to implement.
18:47But before that, I believe they will have some kind of an understanding.
18:51Otherwise, other countries like Canada, U.K. and Australia will definitely take a benefit.
18:58And I see that, yes, India has a better governance now, better leadership.
19:03And this is where the Indian government should have a reverse H-1B innovation hub funds, the remote work zones, and the national talent retention should be there.
19:14Absolutely.
19:14Mr. Singh, perhaps the move will lead to more and more techies innovating right here in India and giving a push to India's Startup India program and, in fact, entrepreneurship in the country.
19:26But at this point, gentlemen, we have some breaking news that's just coming in.
19:30The White House essentially says that doctors may be exempt from H-1B visa fees.
19:35Professor Nalapath, your first thoughts on this exemption that's been announced by the White House.
19:40We did also see a set of clarifications that came in from the White House essentially on H-1B visa fee of $1,00,000.
19:50What do you make of this recent statement that's come in?
19:52White House essentially stating that doctors may be exempt from H-1B visa fee.
19:56Why is the United States now exempting doctors?
19:59I'll tell you very clearly.
20:03The reason is that doctors are good for the U.S.
20:06Indian doctors are good for the U.S.
20:08And, frankly, the U.S. health system, I mean, I would, it's already not in very good shape.
20:14It will be in awful shape if Indian doctors are not there.
20:17And it's not only in health.
20:19It's in tech and so many other fields.
20:22It's, I mean, for heaven's sake, in tech, it's not, you know, it's not because of any partiality towards Indians that you have so many Indians at the top.
20:31It's because of sheer merit.
20:33And you're striking a blow against merit.
20:36And what is happening?
20:38Your own MAGA base is suffering high prices.
20:41They're suffering from, you know, the inflation that this is bringing.
20:45And, I mean, you cannot be satisfied with watching television speeches of your hero and then go back to the grocery store and have a very much bigger bill and go back and meet your family and tell them I can't, you know, bring that much home because I don't have enough money.
21:04I mean, joblessness in the United States is reaching a high and inflation is reaching a high and, I mean, job growth is reaching a low.
21:15All this is happening and all this is happening.
21:18Why?
21:18Because you've got a policy in the U.S. at the top driven by emotion.
21:24You cannot drive policy by emotion or sentiment.
21:29It's got to be hard rationality.
21:32And if it's not rationality, it's a country itself will turn on you.
21:37And that is, I think, what we are seeing now in the case of President Trump.
21:41His own party is now getting worried about their prospects in the midterms.
21:46And they're now making, I mean, Senator Ted Cruz, for example, made some pretty strong comments.
21:53Marco Rubio, I'm sure, feels the same way, but he's no longer a senator.
21:57He has to basically publicly at least throw the line of his boss.
22:01But I'm very certain that there are voices in the U.S. saying that it's time for the U.S. to get off.
22:08It's anti-India kick.
22:09And God knows, I mean, it looks like it's some kind of an ego issue.
22:14I mean, I can't see any rational reason behind it.
22:17But the reality is that enough people are there in Washington, in New York, in Atlanta, in Houston,
22:24so many locations, who are basically warning the Republicans, watch out, don't do this.
22:31You're basically making our party a write-off in the next election.
22:38Right.
22:39Right.
22:40Professor Nalapath, in fact, this is something that we were just discussing a short while back.
22:44In fact, you know, the criticism of Donald Trump's policies has come about from very many of the executives
22:51in Donald Trump's own administration as well, who have stated that it's not perhaps a good idea
22:56to have ties going downhill with India, as India has been a trusted and a longstanding partner of the United States.
23:04So this is another U-turn that's coming in from the Donald Trump administration,
23:07with exemptions being given to doctors.
23:09Let me take the point across to you, Mr. Singh.
23:11Now, India, in its statement, if you remember yesterday, suggested that it hopes that the visa issue
23:16will be addressed suitably by the United States.
23:18But these protectionist policies, what will they end up yielding from countries like India and China,
23:24especially in terms of reciprocal measures?
23:26Do you see more collaboration, for instance, happening on the IT front, IT talent front, between India and China?
23:34Yes, absolutely.
23:35Sumitra, there will be a lot of joint programs, and there will be a lot of joint developments.
23:40Education also in terms of technology hubs, research.
23:46And this is going to be part of this exemptions, what you have started listening about doctors.
23:53There will be more exemptions coming.
23:55And for sure, because they need, after that, they will analyze that this is not only about the IT,
24:01it's all about the ecosystem.
24:04And China, of course, China is some portion, but they are not that competitive.
24:10But we Indians have the skill sets margin in as a top, all the segment of the industry.
24:16So, reciprocal-wise, I understand that, yes, there is a huge change that's going to make a difference.
24:24But as of now, this is too early to give a comment on the kind of impact.
24:29But I believe they are too immature in making this decision at this stage.
24:34And there will be, certainly, there will be some better decision will be taken on this H1 tag,
24:41because otherwise they are going to lose.
24:44And right, Dr. Professor Nalapar told that this is something which they are going to slap on their face by themselves.
24:52And the party will understand that they are making a big decision.
24:55Because all the big giants in the IT companies, they will start doing offshore business back in India.
25:01And this is how it is going to benefit India, finally.
25:04But on the long run, not on the immediate basis.
25:07Absolutely.
25:09And Indian companies will also be looking at other geographies, as many of them currently already are.
25:15But let me come to you, Professor Nalapar, and ask you the final question.
25:18Now, India and the United States have a partnership that spans across several sectors,
25:22defense, technology, and many other aspects.
25:25When we talk about negotiations on a deal, what is it that India could offer to reach an agreement,
25:30to reach an understanding with the United States?
25:33Look, Sunita, there are very clear limits to any understanding that the U.S. can have with China.
25:40I understand, but what is it that we could offer, sir?
25:43What we are offering, frankly, is security of a democracy versus, you know, coming closer
25:52and strengthening an autocracy that wants to take your place.
25:57You read the, I mean, the CCP, Communist Party of China magazines in their own language.
26:08What's their talk shows?
26:11It's all about ensuring that China dominates the world and America is pushed to second place.
26:18And that would be a disaster for a dollar.
26:21It would be a disaster for the MAGA movement.
26:25So this belief that, oh, China, China, I mean, he's treating China and India in the same way.
26:32We are defense partners, defense allies, and China is your main adversary.
26:38And if you, let's say, you invite your own house, your worst enemy with a gun loaded,
26:45and your best friend who is going to defend you, and you basically throw your best friend
26:50out, what sin does it make?
26:52I can't make any sense out of it.
26:54And neither can the vast majority of people in the Trump cabinet or the Republican Party
27:00or the United States.
27:01So I think President Trump is making himself the most unpopular president at this point
27:07in his term.
27:08I think he'll go as the most unpopular president in the history of the United States.
27:13Not a record that he would relish having.
27:17Absolutely, Professor Nalapath.
27:21In fact, he's also isolating himself.
27:23And you talked about hyphenating India and China.
27:25Well, he's hyphenated India and Pakistan.
27:28So those are the kind of actions and, of course, comments that have come in from Donald Trump.
27:35And like I stated, he's only isolating himself on global stage.
27:39We've seen the kind of response that countries have given in response to his unilateral trade
27:46agreements.
27:46In fact, some countries have not been very happy.
27:48It remains to be seen the kind of negotiations and talks that go with India, even as Commerce
27:54Minister Piyush Goyal is currently in the United States.
27:57And, of course, all eyes will be on Marco Rubio's meeting with External Affairs Minister
28:02Dr. S.J. Shankar.
28:03On that note, thank you very much, gentlemen, for taking the time out and speaking to us here
28:06on ET Now.
28:06Ladies and gentlemen, it's time now for us to flip into a better.
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