00:00I got to tell you, nobody has left the keys in the car,
00:05opened the back door wide open than the New York Mets, Adam.
00:09They have led everybody who was dead and buried a month ago
00:12back into the race, and here they are, Adam,
00:16taking on the Padres tonight, and yikes.
00:19Now I believe Holmes is gone, but Menea is going to be coming in after him.
00:24It is a hot mess in New York,
00:26but can they win this game tonight against the Padres?
00:31Yeah, you could take the desperation angle really with either side of this game, right?
00:36You could look at the Mets and say 1-9 over their last nine.
00:39Still, they're in that mix.
00:41They have a one-and-a-half game lead for the final wildcard spot,
00:44so sphincters are clenching, and they're trying to hang on to this thing.
00:48But on the other side, let's not ignore that the Padres,
00:52who, yeah, they're going to be in the playoffs regardless,
00:54but they still want to win that division.
00:55They want that first-round bye.
00:57They don't want to have to deal with that.
00:58They're trying to overtake the Dodgers and have limited time to do so.
01:01You know, two games back in the NL West off of these two straight wins
01:05where they are right now, and, you know, for me,
01:08I don't ultimately know who's going to win this game.
01:11This is a lean into the better pitcher in the first five innings,
01:16take the bullpen out of it.
01:17You guys know I like my first five plays,
01:19and I think Michael King against Clay Holmes
01:21and the uncertainty of Holmes with Menea behind him,
01:23as you outlined, Joe, I think King is the spot.
01:26King has been a model of consistency.
01:29He has only allowed more than three runs one time all season.
01:33Now, he hasn't pitched all year.
01:34I think it's a dozen starts, but nevertheless,
01:36one time he's gotten roughed up and even, you know, roughed up,
01:40I think it was four.
01:41You know, every other time, it's usually one, two runs.
01:43He is very good.
01:44Holmes on the other side, very inconsistent.
01:47Gave up four runs and almost four innings.
01:49Didn't even make it through the fourth.
01:51The only time that he saw the Padres back in July,
01:53the Mets have lost his last three starts.
01:56So he's just prone to giving up runs early.
01:58So even if the Padres bullpen has a problem
02:01and the Mets come back and win this game late,
02:03a la the Dodgers last night against the Phillies,
02:06I still like the Padres to be in front at the end of five.
02:10If you take a look at teams that have to win in Major League Baseball,
02:13how about Boston and Milwaukee?
02:14You don't want to take those heavy price points.
02:16So what do you do, Adam?
02:17Put them together, baby.
02:18That's right at plus money, plus 126 there on your screen
02:23for this Moneyline Parlay.
02:24Now, listen, you could lay the wood with the Red Sox right around minus 150.
02:28Take the Brewers out of it all together.
02:30If you don't want to go after plus money,
02:32I just look at it and say Milwaukee is very good.
02:36Has obviously clinched the playoff spot.
02:38Freddy Peralta is one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.
02:40Digging into his numbers, you know, knocked around last time by Texas.
02:43But before that, has allowed one earned run or no, hadn't allowed an earned run.
02:51Pardon me.
02:51In the previous five weeks before that start, I mean, the dude had been virtually unhittable.
02:56On the other side, you know, the other one is obviously the trickier one
02:59since you have Milwaukee at right around minus 260.
03:02The Red Sox, it's it's Connelly early in his second big league outing.
03:06The first one, five shutout innings, 12 strikeouts came against this same athletics team
03:11that he's going to see at Fenway.
03:12But after dropping two out of three against the Yankees,
03:15there does have to be an urgency for Boston to get this win
03:18to keep its wildcard playoff hopes in firm grasp.
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