- 5 months ago
Belen de los Santos (teleSUR) and Tianchen Wei (China Academy) exchange views from different sides of the world on the government of the Argentine Libertarian president, who is facing growing rejection as he approaches his half-term mark. teleSUR
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00:00Welcome to a new episode of Overlap in which we are joining forces to have this conversation
00:14from across the world. My name is Belen de los Santos here from Cuba, from Telesur, and with me
00:20is Tian Shan from China, from China Academy, hoping to have a great conversation tonight.
00:28So thank you so much for joining us, Tian Shan.
00:31Hi, Belen. I'm Tian Shan, and thanks for having me today.
00:35Of course. And we are getting into one topic today that has, well, it started in South America,
00:41but it has sparked interest across the world, really. And that is the government of the so-called
00:47anarcho-capitalist Javier Millet in Argentina. It's been all over the news. It made all the
00:54headlines ever since 2023. And of course, we continue to analyze it. And it really sparked
01:01interest across the world because of the impact that it's having, not only in its country, but
01:08also of the repercussions it could have on other countries as well. And also some are looking at
01:14it as a possible, just repercussions across the world of similar models. So just to get off the
01:22back, we are two years into that Javier Millet government in Argentina, we'll start thinking
01:27into a little bit of what were the main policies and also what are the main impacts that are happening
01:34in the country and the region. But Tian Shan, how well does China know the Javier Millet phenomenon?
01:41Okay. He is the superstar, I would say. He is definitely a big political star here in China,
01:50and I believe maybe everywhere. And all we can say, he's a very important political influencer,
02:00second only to Trump. Maybe he draws the level of attention similar to Zelensky. But it's definitely not
02:08like everyone in China likes him or hate him, but he's controversial. And the level of attention
02:17he draws here is extremely high. His image and his speech and his policy have all left a strong
02:28impression on Chinese audience. I think he's kind of like Trump because Millet is also considered an
02:35outsider to his own country's political system. But his political career is even more legendary than
02:43Trump. Trump is a billionaire anyway. So he can afford his campaign, at least on the very beginning stage.
02:51But Millet, I feel like he started from nothing. He had zero political capital. So he started everything
02:58from scratch. But he knows so well how to make full use of all everything in his toolkit, like his rock and
03:07roll, and his hairstyle, the way he's speaking, and his chainsaw, and even his leather jackets. So everything,
03:19all of these like help him to build traction quickly among the global audience, as well as the Chinese
03:26audience. And I can remember Millet had a lot of viral moments. The one I like the most, I believe you
03:35are pretty familiar with that, is the video where he's crossing out all the ministries of the Argentina's
03:44government. And he's shouting like, Ministry of Education, Afriera, Afriera. And how strong is that,
03:53even for us, like who don't understand Spanish? And how can we not remember that? All of this is,
04:00has, has, has sparked the most hard discussion over him here in Chinese internet. And at the same time,
04:10I think Chinese audience would, are very curious about how is Argentina is doing right now. There is
04:18one of the top channels here called Shipping Dao. Their team actually went to Argentina last year,
04:25and they filmed a documentary about Argentina and the Millet. And we try to share the video with you
04:34before this dialogue, but there isn't a free link, because it's a paid members only context.
04:41So yet, it has already received over 5 million views on Chinese internet, which means on one single
04:49Chinese social media platform, over 5 million Chinese people have paid to watch a documentary
04:57about Argentina, about Millet. So that's how much visibility Millet has drawn and Argentina has drawn
05:05here in China. So I think, I hope this gets you the basic idea about his visibility here.
05:13Of course, and it is so interesting. And of course, being from a country from the global south,
05:20where the news tend to go the other way around, this phenomenon has struck a chord, definitely. Even
05:27among his detractors, this idea of, well, our president is well known across the world, and like
05:35top leaders who, in other cases, may not even know exactly where the country is located in South America,
05:42because you know that many northern countries, I'm thinking about the United States and Europe,
05:47you know, get their global south confused sometimes. And they were tweeting him out,
05:53and they were like taking pictures with him. And there's a sort of like phenomenon of we are well known,
06:01that definitely said something, of course, many analysts and are saying like, well, okay,
06:07but well known for what? And that's something to understand and to analyze. I think that it's interesting,
06:13like just going back to when he was elected to understand that a lot of what you were mentioning
06:19played an important role. There's controversial images and his appearance in TV shows and social
06:29networks. No, you were talking about some of the viral videos that were very much linked to very
06:35controversial positions on the government and on like his government actions, right? So this idea of
06:43of drastical cuts, and speaking broadly against social justice, he was very well known for another
06:52viral video saying that social justice was a crime, and it was stealing and the only way of like the only
06:59free way of honoring freedom and independence was absolute capitalism. So he had like this big ideas that
07:09really came across many, in many instances, causing a lot of anger, a lot of indignation on a population.
07:17Argentina comes from a great tradition of popular organizations, social movements,
07:25for a long time being very proud of, even if it continues to be a very unequal country, it has
07:33a lot of the trends that sadly a lot of the global South has. Free public education was always very
07:39important. A free health system was always very important. So these ideas were so controversial and
07:47were hitting a lot of like spots. But of course, at a time of economic uncertainty, they resonated with
07:57with with parts of the population, because they seem to give like clear solutions, or quote unquote, like easy solutions,
08:06then we need to see if they are actually solutions and, and what impact they are having. But at that time, when
08:11people need answers, that definitely said something. And as you were saying, it is true that he came from
08:20outside the political spectrum, right? So from outside the two most well established parties that had been
08:30alternating power for the past decades. And when we are thinking about why Millet comes to power,
08:39we need to understand that at that time, two things were happening. Inflation was the biggest problem
08:47that the economy was facing. And it was taking a toll, every part of the population was really suffering from
08:55just the level of uncertainty that that means not only the highest inflation in the world, we were
09:00talking about over 200% year on year inflation. We Argentinians, year after year, got a little bit
09:08used to those high numbers. But across the world, those were numbers that are not even thought of. And also that
09:15the alternation for the past decade before Millet, the established political parties had alternated
09:24and had not been able to solve that underlying problem. So people were really coming from a sense of
09:32failure from the political structures that had not been able to meet those demands. So I think that Millet
09:39really understood that lack, that vacuum of confidence and really used that in his favor,
09:48of course. And just one thing before going back to you, I think that one interesting thing to keep
09:55in mind is it's okay. And of course, it's correct to say that he comes from outside that political
10:02spectrum. He really does come from, quote unquote, like nothing in terms of political backing. But as
10:10he gained momentum, a lot of very big interest lined up behind him, not necessarily because he was their
10:19candidate, but because they saw and they continue to see Millet as a way of opening up a market as a way
10:28of opening up what used to be regulations that, for example, hindered foreign investment in a predatory
10:37way, really, that part of the North has been seeking in South America. And Millet, with his speaking of
10:45like getting rid of all regulations and getting rid of all frontiers, and you can take all the resources
10:51as long as you come and invest here and will control nothing in terms of who gets those earnings,
10:59or if that is reinvested in the country, or if that is taken away, that was really appealing to a sector
11:07of the national elite that is always profiting from that. And also to a sector of the international elite.
11:15Like, we do not need to, to forget that, for example, Elon Musk was one to always hype up Millet.
11:25And Millet was really proud of this, like Elon Musk wants to take my picture and it's tweeting me out.
11:32So this, we really need to keep it in mind that even though he comes from nowhere, that doesn't mean
11:40that at that moment and today still, they're not like big powers backing him up because they
11:46strategically see him as a way to enforce those interests. And that is sort of like the role he's
11:53playing. There's been a lot of talk in terms of the comparison between Millet and Trump, right?
11:59How, how have you perceived that from your side? I see that from the outside, people tend to see
12:06the similarities, basically. Is that the case from China? I think so. I totally agree with you,
12:14the point you just brought up. It looks like at the beginning, Millet and Trump was an outsider,
12:21and they all started from a lower place in terms of the establishment political structure. But once
12:30they are in power and everything's different and they are so tied to this interest group,
12:37and they used to be maybe a symbol of defiance against, against a backdrop of maybe it's rampant
12:48inflation in Argentina. And maybe it can be some other kind of economic difficulties in the United
12:56States. But everything changed once they are in the office. I totally agree with that point. So that's
13:03maybe the biggest similarity between Millet and Trump. But I was wondering, because Trump has been in the
13:15office in almost one year, more than half a year, and Millet has been in the office for almost two years.
13:25So I feel like they are kind of have a similar presidential style. And there's an old saying in China
13:37called 雷生大雨点小, which means like, very loud sounder, but only little人. So I don't know,
13:45I don't know if I got the news and data right, and correct me if I'm wrong. So I feel like Millet and
13:52Trump, they had a lot of like ambitions before, and especially during their presidential campaign.
14:01And they had a lot of the big goals, especially like Millet. For example, Millet, he talked about
14:07all these kinds of things. He's going to abolish the central bank, and he's going to open up all these
14:14markets, no tariffs, and everything. And I remember all his crazy ideas about the whole package of
14:24privatization, marketization, and liberalization. But from what I read about some analysis of
14:34Argentina's current situation, it looks like Millet didn't execute
14:38most of his ambitions he claimed to do before. So that's where I'm most curious about. It's like,
14:47to what extent is Millet is carrying out these liberalization measures? Because from what I see
14:56from Trump, and Trump said that he's going to do this, he's going to do that, and he's going to wage a
15:02tariff war against the world. But actually, now we are in a post period, the US trade war is in a
15:10post period, and everything is posted till August last time, and it gets postponed forever. And now
15:18it's in the dealing process with every country. And especially at the beginning, we saw that the
15:26trade war is against China. But for now, there's nearly zero process in the trade war between China
15:35and the US. So how is Millet doing? Is he kind of delivering his promises? To what extent?
15:44So that is really interesting. And I think that, of course, people continue to ask themselves that
15:51question every day, and analysts as well, economists as well. Well, you were saying it, right? So,
15:57so out of the blue, so unexpected it. I think that that part, Trump and Millet have it in common,
16:03they, they bet on confusion, they bet on chaos, even this idea of doing like this resounding
16:13statements, I'm going to change this everything overnight, I'm going to do. And that creates a
16:20permanent state of alert. And also, there's such unexpected promises. Millet was talking in
16:28during his campaign of burning down the central bank. So everyone was like, but what does that mean?
16:35And what will, but what will happen? But we have a dependent economy, but what about our currency? So
16:41it becomes a permanent state of alert, that really hinders more in depth analysis and a serious
16:49analysis. And I think that is very much politically calculated, that people are just going after the
16:55last viral statement, instead of just focusing on broader trends. The case of what you were mentioning,
17:04I was saying that is one of the aspects why people continue to ask themselves, to what extent does,
17:10has he delivered on those promises? So, of course, there are a lot of this big resounding promises
17:18that have completely disappeared after, or I don't know if completely disappeared, but have not been
17:24delivered on, and also have not returned to discourse after he became president. The destroying the
17:31central bank, for example, the complete over the night dollarization, for example, that he said was so
17:39easy to do, so easy to deliver, and that would solve all the problems magically. Again, very much in line
17:47to what we were saying before, the idea of delivering like short sentences, apparently easy solutions,
17:54that the problem is that no one dared to do before, and that would solve everything overnight. Of course,
18:00not only those would have a lot of serious consequences that could not be solved overnight,
18:08but also they're very, just from a practical standpoint, almost impossible to implement,
18:16at least not right away. For example, not even talking about dollarization, but Millet used to
18:23talk about just ending up all regulations on currency exchange. You know that Argentina, as many other
18:35global south economies, but particularly because of its relationship to the US dollar and its
18:43relation to foreign market in particular, has a lot of struggles with currency exchange market. It's very
18:49dependent on that, those regulations. It's become very dependent on those regulations because
18:55the years of inflation, economic stability, and a lot of other factors have become
19:02difficult to maintain its own currency, the Argentine peso, without its permanent relation to US dollar and
19:09the restraints that means. Millet had always said he would like, he would end those regulations overnight,
19:16and the peso should be at whatever point it needed to be, and that would solve everything. And to this day,
19:25they only ended up regulations about a couple of months ago. So that was over a year into his
19:32government, a year in which he maintained a strict regulations. He fixed the level of the Argentine
19:39peso, something very different to what he said he was going to do. And even now, even if those
19:47regulations are not in place, there's a lot of debate in terms of how much he's spending to manipulate
19:55that exchange market. So intervening in that exchange market so that the national currency,
20:02the peso does not go up in the air, because that would affect inflation. And inflation is the biggest
20:09target of Millet. That is, almost everyone is saying it. In other governments, it was in poverty.
20:16For example, in other governments, it was inequality. For Millet, his campaign was to beat inflation.
20:23So if inflation does not go down, if inflation for any reason, for example, because of the peso going
20:31up, if inflation goes up again, that would be a disaster in terms of his own promises. So as you can
20:40see, the amount of which he could or not deliver was very much constrained by even his own promises.
20:47And of course, the practical factors of implementing those things that sounded maybe to some sectors of
20:54society really appealing on a viral TikTok, but then meant a lot of different things in action.
21:03Now, even if he did not do those resounding promises, there are some things that were definitely applied.
21:12He talked about basically cutting all public spending or as much as he could do.
21:18And we have seen a great deal of focus on cutting that public spending, shrinking the state agencies as
21:28much as he can. And that now cutting the public spending or achieving fiscal balance. So having more
21:35having less expenditures in general has translated to affecting certain sectors in particular.
21:46So pensioners have been among the most affected retirees and everything going to pensions have
21:54been the most affected. A great proportion of the public spending that he could reduce,
22:01it was taken from what should have gone to retired workers. That is one of the sectors of society that
22:08is mobilizing every week. It's become just a moment in the week. It's the Wednesday's demonstration in
22:16front of the Congress, because it has been the one of the most targeted sectors of the population. Other areas,
22:23such as public works in general, in terms of investment of infrastructure, has also dropped dramatically.
22:31And it has really affected the economic activity in general. But in terms of labor, the construction area in particular,
22:43then other sectors such as the scientific sector, that the past governments,
22:50both from our center-left to right perspective, had maintained in terms, or relatively maintained,
23:00in terms of the need to build strategic knowledge and to continue betting on scientific development,
23:08even as an industrial standpoint, that has been also very harshly affected. The scientists,
23:15in general, also are one of the sectors that have been demonstrating, well, not every week,
23:21but a lot lately. The health system has been on the news lately as well. So as you can see,
23:28all of these things that he promised he would do, a lot of the afueras from the viral video,
23:34maybe did not translate exactly, but are having a great impact, is committed to shrinking that public
23:42spending. But that public spending does not mean having higher taxes on the highest income sectors of
23:52society, does not mean taking more revenue from the big exports from society. It even does not mean
24:01thinking strategically how to obtain more revenue from the potential energy markets or anything to
24:10do with the natural resources, because that has basically went up for grabs. All the legislation has
24:18gone into letting everyone come in, and I will put no regulations in terms of you having to give back to
24:26the country, to the government, or in terms of investment. All the spend cutting has come from lowering
24:34investment on those key sectors that are now driving a social unrest in terms of the retirees, the health
24:44system, the public education. Again, sectors that were historically very important to large parts of the population.
24:56in Argentina for its historical, just political life. And now we need to see what will happen in that sense.
25:06Will Milley be able to continue to retain that support, even if he is continuously hitting on
25:16the sectors that are then benefiting from that health system, from that education. How long will he be able to
25:26sustain that? Because that is easy to say when you're outside of power and you're saying that it's the
25:33the political system that will pay the bills. It's the higher sectors that no one really knows who they
25:39are that will pay the bills. But when you come to reality and who's paying the bills are the ones who
25:46who are not making ends meet and who are having a much slower, a much slower economy and job perspectives,
25:54then we need to see health care is going down and the education is going down. Then you need to see
26:00how that is going to be sustained over time, basically.
26:05Sounds familiar to everything happening in the US right now. As you mentioned, like the pension
26:14cutoff and everything in public education, in health care, in scientific research,
26:22all of this Africa by Trump. So sounds very familiar. And I'm very curious about cause any shift in public
26:33opinion towards Milley, because I feel like if he just carry out these measures, it sounds like just a
26:41very classical, neoliberal, conservative economic policies of this, that it's not a new thing in
26:51Argentina. It's not a new thing in the world. But Milley rises because people saw him as an outsider,
26:59saw him as a reactionary. And if he just did everything close to other liberalists, is that going to impact
27:11his approval rating or anything? Is he going to have a still solid base of fans and of followers? How does
27:21that impact the Argentina society right now? Do you observe any shift on that?
27:28Well, Tianxian, you have the best questions. You have the questions that any
27:33political analyst in Argentina would like to ask and answer, of course. That is definitely the question.
27:40And you know that this year, we are in the just month before the legislative elections in Argentina.
27:47Those are the midterm elections. Those are already taking place right now. But the main event at the
27:54national level will be in a couple of months. And that is the big question. Is all of this having
28:01an impact on that perspective that people had on Milley? How is that impacting, if it is at all?
28:08Definitely what we can say, there's no resolution in terms of this right now, because it is all a little
28:17bit happening day to day. And also good enough to say that the surveys have become at least hard to
28:26follow in terms of the segments they're evaluating for the past elections. They have not given concrete
28:34answers. And those answers had not related to the results in the election. So people are also a
28:40little bit skeptical nowadays about, okay, you can have a study showing one thing, showing another
28:45thing. But how is that really a testament of the general sentiment? But there are a couple of things
28:52to keep in mind, at least as clues to what may be happening. For example, there are
28:59a different amount of surveys indicating that even though there's a portion of society that backed Milley
29:07when they elected him, right? And there's a portion of society that even though they backed Milley
29:13when they elected him, they now disapprove of his measures. But he still retains an important portion
29:23of society saying that they approve of the government so far, even though that has been declining over
29:30the past month. And we could go over why that could be. However, many studies show that the portion of
29:39society that supports Milley does not necessarily equate to the portion of society that support all of
29:46those broad statements against public education, against the healthcare system, against, like, they do not
29:53support everything that he is saying. So, as time goes by, and as he continues to, pulled on those threads of
30:03hitting the most sensitive agencies related to healthcare, related to disability pensions, related to the
30:13retirees, and cannot deliver up and developing economy, two years into his mandate, we should
30:22see, like, what will happen to those people. For example, a very recent study, one of the largest protests
30:28for the past weeks have been from Argentina's most important pediatric hospital, the Garahan.
30:35It's been all over the news with the health workers and all the workers of the hospital, really, and a massive
30:43amount of the population demonstrating, because the doctors were saying that they were understaffed, that
30:49they were heavily underfunded, and they were losing the ability to provide service. And this is a public
30:56hospital that is very important and very sensible for the population, not only because it's a children's
31:03hospital. It's been very innovative. It's been so good in its quality that even though the health
31:12system in Argentina has a lot of problems and a portion of it is privatized, that children's
31:20hospital, being a public hospital, always continued to be a great reference to all sectors of society,
31:26because the harshest diseases affecting children were investigating and treated there. So, of course,
31:33that struck a very sensitive chord to the entire society. And studies show that even though a portion of
31:41the population supports Malay, an even higher portion, it was like 78% of the population was
31:50strictly convinced that hospital had to be a priority and that the government had to do anything
31:56it takes and prioritize it in terms of funding and keep it running.
32:01So that means that an important sector of the population that is still backing Malay is actually
32:07very much against what is happening in that case. And if this translates to other similar scenarios,
32:15we are actually looking into a situation that will not easily, it will not be easy to translate it to
32:24to electoral situations and definitely into, for example, for seeing if he could reelect or not in two years.
32:34It's a complex situation. Even if he retains that support, that doesn't mean that the entire population wants this measure.
32:43So what will that mean in a couple of years? I think that is the main question to answer and to keep track on.
32:51Also, important to keep in mind that so far, no other sector of society seems to be able to capitalize on that discontent,
33:02because the entire political system appears to be just people are lacking confidence in general,
33:10because not being able to deliver answers. So this is turning into a lack of participation.
33:18So, for example, we have all-time lows during these elections this year.
33:23So once again, Malay, two years ago, capitalized on that discontent,
33:29on that frustration, on that inability from the elected powers to deliver on those promises.
33:36If he, again, is not able to fulfill those expectations, what will happen to that discontent?
33:45Will maybe sectors of the organized popular organizations, social organizations,
33:50be able to propose a new horizon, a new answer back to those policies and fuel on that discontent?
34:00Maybe. Probably not in one month, but some analysts are looking at that in the long term.
34:08So maybe those are the variables of what is happening right now.
34:12It's quite interesting to talk about how the voters think in Argentina,
34:21and that kind of mindset is pretty common, pretty typical in this capitalist two-party system.
34:32But Chinese people may find it kind of unfamiliar with that, because it's quite special.
34:39Like the voters in Argentina, I feel like from what you just mentioned,
34:45they are forced to make a kind of binary decision.
34:52Like if they vote for Malay, it doesn't because they like Malay a lot.
34:58It's probably because they just want to remove the previous president.
35:03It's also the same thing happened in the United States.
35:06Like it's not like people like Trump.
35:08It's because people hate Biden.
35:11They hate Harris. They hate Obama or whatever.
35:15And they hate the whole deep state, the establishment.
35:20And, but if next time the Democrats are going to win the next election,
35:26it's not because people like the Democrats.
35:28It's because people hate Trump so much.
35:31So I was thinking about it's going to happen to Malay.
35:36And it looks like that no matter which party wins, it's always the ordinary people lose.
35:43It's kind of a fresh idea to Chinese people.
35:46Because what Chinese people are most concerned about is about how the policy are made.
35:53And are these policies going to execute effectively?
35:59Are these policies going to improve social developments and people's welfare?
36:05And we don't care a lot about like who's going to win this election, which party going to win.
36:10We don't have to worry about not spending any time and efforts.
36:14And we focus on how to deliver the promise, how to deliver the plans.
36:21For example, the five year economic plans.
36:24And by contrast, if you get elected president in most of the Western countries, they always fail to deliver on their promises.
36:36Yeah, that's the major differences I want to bring about.
36:40Of course. And it's so interesting to keep up this conversation, because what you were pointing out definitely speaks to a moment in terms of the liberal political system of parts of the West that are we see repeated time and time again in different scenarios.
37:01Of course, not every political system is the same, but many in the West have this sort of alternation.
37:10And it seems to be stuck at a moment in time in which, as you were saying, people are going from frustration to frustration, voting out of anger rather than looking for a viable horizon or voting with will or convinced that that is the political alternative.
37:30And that seems to be spiraling and in that spiral of frustration, we see that from those edges, new things are emerging.
37:42Well, for the past years in South America, at least, there's an important sector of the far right emerging from those edges.
37:53We see it in Argentina, but we saw it before in Brazil.
37:56Well, we see it in Chile, we see it in Chile, we see it in different sectors, some of them got to power, some didn't.
38:04But we have radicalized movements, many linked to different forms of religious fundamentalisms, many linked to this idea of going back to some form of ultra-conservatism
38:23in order to build a new horizon or a new way of social life.
38:33And that is definitely emerging.
38:35And we need to see that as a trend that is happening, even if they come to power or they are outside of power at the moment, that trend continues.
38:47Just as Trump emerged in the United States and he was out of power, but then that movement continued and he came back.
38:55The same thing we can see in Brazil, for example, the movement that had Bolsonaro's leadership is now an active actor of the Brazilian political life,
39:07even if it's not in power at the moment and even if its main leader, Bolsonaro, is now in prison.
39:14We see that political activity is a new actor and that is emerging.
39:21Well, there's other things to say in terms of what will happen.
39:26Will there be a new tendency, new organization from a leftist perspective to rival that new emergence?
39:37We're definitely at a transition moment.
39:40And, of course, sectors, some countries that have completely different processes than the ones we are talking about,
39:47have a lot on popular activity and organization and building from the ground up.
39:56And a lot of communal experiences, so interesting to follow in Venezuela.
40:02In Mexico as well, the process is very interesting.
40:06But definitely, as we're speaking of the southern region of the continent, there was that frustration that was spiraling sort of out of control.
40:17This far right is emerging in that context.
40:21And the social organizations that are searching for general well-being in terms of social equality,
40:33in terms of reducing inequalities, in terms of just improving the general way of living of the broader sectors of the population,
40:45they are still trying to see how they can organize in this new scenario.
40:52And some are very optimistic that, given the right organization, this could be like a new movement,
40:59because people are apparently looking for answers.
41:03And they were very fast to answer that call that was presented at viral TikToks from Malay.
41:10But they could be as well enamored with other social proposals if presented to them.
41:17So there's an interesting scenario to continue, but definitely one that will have a lot of polarization,
41:25that will have a social struggle and political struggle at a new pace that we've been seeing in the past decades,
41:34definitely going into a new political momentum in general.
41:39And I'm speaking in South America, but I wanted to go back to something that you were saying regarding Trump.
41:46And we left it off there at some point of the conversation.
41:50I see this comparison being held all the time.
41:54And of course, I see that it comes from a couple of very interesting points, right?
42:01Bolsonaro, Malay, Trump, they are continuously even signaling themselves, like, I'm the Trump from the South.
42:11Trump will say, I like that guy, Malay, down in Argentina.
42:15Like, he's like me. He's my friend.
42:17They will even mention this, the similarities themselves.
42:21And the similarities are clear.
42:23They come from the outside.
42:24They are breaking political norms or political structures.
42:29They are using a sort of radical speech to appeal to the masses.
42:35And that is making a real big impact and effect.
42:40But also looking forward, I think it's important to keep in mind that it is inherently different to think of these sort of leaders
42:50when Trump is saying America first, because he's defending a way of life in the West and capitalist United States of which he is the center.
43:03So he is defending a model in which they are the number one beneficiaries.
43:12So it makes sense to have that protectionist discourse.
43:16And it makes sense that that will appeal to many sectors of society in terms of being felt, they feel that they are put first, right?
43:28But what does that mean for leaderships that are also saying let's defend this Western capitalist model when you are from a global South country
43:40that is actually just part of the elites are benefiting maybe from that structure.
43:46But the broader population is actually paying the toll of world capitalism that is the harshest on the global South.
43:56So there is like an inherent contradiction there that they are surfing really well right now.
44:03But I think it's something to continue looking at in terms of how that develops.
44:11I don't know how from China you're looking at these because Milley's speech at Davos was like it became very famous.
44:18Everyone was talking about it and he was continuously talking about this.
44:23We are defending the West.
44:25Milley's speech at Davos was one of the most famous.
44:29It was headlines all over the world and he was continuously speaking of this idea that anarcho-capitalism was for defending the West and its values.
44:41And this was a cultural battle and that is what they are dealing with.
44:46Well, I continue to think that I truly don't know what it means for a global South president to be talking about defending West values that are better aligned with the United States, for example.
45:03I don't know how that speech is being perceived from China.
45:06I think you just brought up the very fundamental differences between Trump and Milley because they come from completely different countries, different contexts.
45:21When Trump says America first and so the first thing he's doing is to cut off ties with China because he wants to isolate China and he persuade other countries to also cut off ties with China.
45:42And because that works best for American interest.
45:45But that's where I found interesting about Milley because before Milley came in office and he said all these awful things about China, about communism.
45:57And he made many direct remarks about Chinese people, about Chinese leaders.
46:04But once he's in the office, he became the most pragmatic guy.
46:10And he didn't cut ties with China, if he do that, I would think he's the biggest fool in the world because from the most pragmatic perspective, building a kind of friendly relation with China works best for Argentina because Argentina can use that to gain leverage in its dealing with the United States.
46:37And to secure greater benefits and to secure greater benefits and also the relations between Argentina and China is actually a mutually beneficial relations and because China is already one of the biggest trading partner of Argentina.
46:55I think also both exports and imports and also there is broad cooperation opportunities for China and Argentina to work together in infrastructure, in high technology and in agricultural and in every major field.
47:20So if Argentina wants to make a great leap in economy, it cannot do so without China.
47:30So that's where I think Milley made a very smart choice by actually building a friendly relationship with China, especially in the trade and financial issues.
47:45I also heard about China and Argentina has signed a currency swap and Argentina used that money to pay back to the IMF and the World Bank.
47:57So that actually, the Chinese netizens jokingly described Milley as he was like, talk all against communism, all against China, but holding R&D firmly in his hands.
48:10From the Chinese view of China, I think the Chinese people, we do not hate dealing with pragmatic leaders as long as the relationships are mutually beneficial.
48:25China is willing to engage.
48:27Yeah.
48:27And I think that's where the future really lies for both countries.
48:33I think you are making some very interesting points in terms of what happened to China.
48:39It happened with Brazil as well, with that in terms of the region, maybe just from a practical sense and for like everyday citizen made even less sense because, of course, it's the closest partner.
48:54This idea that Milley was saying, I'm going to cut ties with everyone who is not, I don't know.
49:02And well, once again, we go back to what does that mean when you actually come to power?
49:08What does that mean practically?
49:10Like, are you able to, like, in terms of the economy, forego the most important trading partners?
49:17Well, of course, you are not.
49:19And another very important point that you were making is the Argentina has a great amount of debt.
49:28It's one of the most indebted countries with the IMF.
49:32For example, the largest amount of debt is for Argentina.
49:36Again, one of the largest.
49:38Argentinians are very used to saying that Messi and the Pope and things.
49:43And people need to start saying that the highest inflation and the highest debt with the IMF, that debt also conditioned the relationship with China, for example, in terms of China being one of the countries that could aid Argentina in terms of its financial struggles.
50:05So cutting ties in that context was not as easy as it could be said in a social network TikTok.
50:12And that is where the swap with China came into place.
50:18And that is when Malay ended up traveling and trying to make peace and play nice.
50:24Just before we round up, I wanted to ask you, Tian Tian, what does something like the Malay phenomenon mean in a world-like scenario from a Chinese perspective?
50:38How are you looking at that phenomenon?
50:39I heard there is an old saying in Argentina.
50:45It says that everything changes in a day, nothing changes in years.
50:52I feel like Malay rises against this kind of backdrop.
50:57And it's a part of a bigger trend of Latin American and even across the globe.
51:06Because we have seen some unconventional politicians come into power because they are trying to, they vow to dismantle the current situation.
51:21And that's how resonating with some of the demographics, especially the younger generation.
51:28It's not unique in Latin American.
51:30We also see that in North America.
51:33We also see that in Europe.
51:34We also see that in some Asian countries.
51:38So this like right wing movement is kind of across the continent, across the globe.
51:46As a Chinese, I naturally stand on the left.
51:51So I tend to take a left wing perspective.
51:57But when it comes to reality, I do understand the context of countries like Argentina.
52:04Because the left wing parties have not implemented what we so-called like textbook leftist policies.
52:15What we see in Argentina from my readings, like the left wing party, they are trying to carry out like some welfare programs,
52:27which goes way beyond the public finance can possibly sustain.
52:32And similarly, like the right wings, the left wing parties also borrowed from the IMF, from the World Bank, from the United States.
52:42With the price being opening up of the whole markets and the sale of the state-owned assets.
52:51And we also see the corruptions under the left, the same as the right.
52:59So for the everyday Argentinian, the consequences looks all the same.
53:07It's always the public assets.
53:10The public interest is appropriated by private interest and foreign power.
53:17And we keep seeing the constant falling of people's standard of living.
53:22So I can totally understand people's mindset.
53:25The whole leftist idea is being stigmatized.
53:31So that's why people get so much anger and so much frustrating here.
53:37That's why they try to seek for someone like Mele.
53:41It looks like they find some solution, find some alternative to the traditional, to the conventional political system.
53:52But I think they will find out early and Mele is nothing new.
53:59Mele is just like everyone else.
54:01It's always about how the special interest group wins, about people like Mele and people surrounding him like him.
54:11People like him wins.
54:12But it's always everyday Argentina's lose.
54:15I think people will understand that in the end.
54:18But before people realize that point, it might be, as you said, it might be a lot of struggling going on.
54:26And maybe we may see more economic hardship, maybe more social division is already on the way.
54:36Chinese observer, we are kind of concerned about everything happening in Argentina.
54:45That's why I'm so curious to ask you, like, well, how is Argentina people doing right now?
54:51And we will definitely keep an eye on Argentina.
54:56And I think it will set an example to other countries in the world.
55:03And also, if Argentina and China can build some kind of relations, no matter if it's in trade, in finance, or in infrastructure,
55:14or in some high technology industry, or in digital economy, whatever.
55:21It's going to set a new example for South-South countries.
55:26It's going to offer a new paradigm for other countries in the world.
55:30It will bring up, like, fresh air to today's, these mainstream diplomatic relations.
55:40Because if you want to deal with America, it's always either friends or four.
55:46It's either black or white.
55:47It's either on the table or on the menu.
55:50But if you are dealing with China, it's a win-win situation.
55:53And it's going to be mutually beneficial.
55:58And it's going to be friend or potential friend.
56:01And it's going to be what we call community of common destiny for mankind.
56:07That's my main takeaway.
56:09It's always nice, that phrase of community of common destiny.
56:14So Tianchan, it's been such a pleasure to discuss all these ideas with you.
56:19It gives us great perspective to be able to share what is happening here
56:25and also try to zoom out and think,
56:28how is this coming across from the other side of the world?
56:33So I think that was a great conversation.
56:36I, of course, want to thank you again.
56:39Thank you for joining us here in Overlap.
56:42And I hope to continue talking soon.
56:44Sure. Thank you so much, Viala.
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