Argentinians vote in midterm elections seen as key test for Milei

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00:00For more on this, we're going to speak to Juan Ferrero, Senior Lecturer in Latin American

00:04Politics at the University of Bath. Thank you very much for joining us today, Juan. So to start,

00:10I mean, how do you expect Millay to fare in these elections? In my understanding,

00:15there's very little clarity in terms of what polls have suggested.

00:21Indeed, there is very little clarity. As you suggested in the opening remarks,

00:25the excitement seems to have faded a bit, but not completely. So it's a big test. Obviously,

00:35it's the first time that the libertarians, as they call themselves, will be competing

00:41nationally in midterm elections. So all in all, I think they expect a fair, decent result,

00:49given the amount of crisis they have been going through.

00:51There's been coverage, Juan, of fading enthusiasm from people like Elon Musk or even Donald Trump.

00:59But how is his presidency thus far perceived in Argentina, perhaps specifically amongst his

01:04supporters? I mean, have they continued to back him despite the ongoing crisis, despite the

01:09controversy, much in the way we've seen Republicans, for example, continue to support Donald Trump? Or

01:14is there growing skepticism about the viability of his economic plans?

01:21Well, there is a core activist,

01:2430 percent of people that continue to support Millay. We will have to, it remains to be seen

01:31what happens with the other 30 percent that seems to be moving in different directions.

01:37What we have to say is that the Millays, while the U.S. government seems to be kind of pondering

01:46about about Millay, they have been very concrete and practical in terms of giving Millays a financial

01:51lifeline by not only supporting Argentina in the IMF, but also the Treasury.

02:00Is there a strong, unified opposition at this point? I mean, who else do voters appear to be putting

02:09their trust in?

02:11Well, this is one of the main points. While there is a leader in the opposition that is growing in

02:18terms of confidence, in terms of eventually challenging Millay in two years' time, the opposition is yet

02:25rebuilding itself. There is a credibility issue in the opposition, given the crisis that they

02:33generated with inflation and poverty and other issues. But at the same time, as happens in politics

02:42often, the opposition gains confidence in the face of a government's failures. And we have been seeing

02:50in the context of Argentina that Millay, while he's been relatively successful in terms of cutting down

02:57inflation, there's been an accumulation of mistakes and problems regarding health care, pensions,

03:06key cutbacks in terms of state funding that is hurting the vulnerable. And that is starting to

03:13be a problem for the government.

03:15Do you think that Donald Trump's influence or potential impact on this election is being

03:22overstated? I mean, it's worth perhaps specifying that Millay himself has really kind of said that

03:28he needs Donald Trump's support. How important is that to Millay and more generally to some of the

03:35policies that he's hoping to put in place?

03:37Well, Millay has done the automatic alignment with the United States and Israel, a key foreign policy

03:49issue. And that seems to be paying off because we have to be clear that without the U.S. support at

03:57this stage, the government would have been in a terminal crisis. And it is not just because of

04:02that. Therefore, the U.S. support has been crucial. We can label this conversation the Battle of Buenos

04:10Aires. There's a lot at stake, which is beyond what's going on in Argentina itself. I think it's

04:17related to the geopolitics of South America. And the U.S. is trying to regain territory that

04:29had lost over the past years at the expense of China. So the U.S. is trying to reclaim some

04:36territory in the southern cone and therefore is playing hard.

04:42Juan Pablo Ferro, Senior Lecturer in Latin American Politics at the University of Bath. That's

04:48unfortunately all we have time for. But thank you very much for your time on the show today.

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