Consider This: US Strike on Venezuela (Part 1) — What’s Trump’s Endgame? - Video Dailymotion

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The US’ capture of Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro in a dramatic special forces operation has drawn international criticism and reopened old questions about US foreign intervention. What does the move mean for Venezuela, for the US, and for a world already on edge? On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with James M. Dorsey, Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies. He is also an author and host of ‘The Turbulent World’ podcast and syndicated column.

Transcript

00:00Hello and good evening. I'm Melissa Idris. Welcome to Consider This. This is the show

00:15where we want you to consider and then reconsider what you know of the news of the day. It's

00:19been days, just days after the US has captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a dramatic

00:27special forces operation. The focus now is shifting from how it happened to what it all means. What

00:34does it mean for Venezuela, for US power and for a world already on edge? So the move has drawn

00:42international criticism and has also reopened old questions about US intervention in regime change.

00:50So let's discuss this further. Joining me on the line is James M. Dorsey, who is an adjunct senior

00:56professor, senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. He's also an author

01:02and host of the Turbulent World podcast and syndicated column. James, thank you so much for

01:08being on the show with me today. Now, we've had a few days to process the capture of Maduro. I'm just

01:14wondering for you, how have you been thinking about this moment in history? What does it represent to

01:22you, particularly about how the US sees itself currently?

01:28Sorry. First of all, we're in a situation in which we have more questions than we have answers.

01:36Having said that, I think what's evident is that whatever happens, this is a paradigm shift. And it's

01:44a paradigm shift, not necessarily only for the United States, and not necessarily only for Latin America.

01:53Clearly, this is the United States establishing. And to be fair to President Trump, he's honest about it.

02:01In contradiction to his predecessors, who mostly cloaked this kind of operation in promotion of

02:11democracy, promotion of human rights. Trump says it straight out. This is about dominance in the Western

02:18hemisphere. And we'll have to see how this all unfolds, whether or not this is a relatively peaceful,

02:29relatively efficient transition process, or whether or not this is going to be very tumultuous

02:36and destabilizing. Right. Whatever, if I may, just whatever this, whatever happens in Venezuela,

02:45the question is, what's, or for that matter in Colombia, if Trump were to proceed with his threats,

02:54what this, what's, there is nothing that stops Russian President Vladimir Putin from attempting to

03:01apprehend Vladimir Zelensky on charges that he is a Nazi, or Xi Jinping to apprehend the leader of Taiwan

03:13on the assertion that the leader is a secessionist. So this sets a precedent that potentially goes beyond

03:22the United States and its sphere of influence, if you wish. So are you saying that this move

03:30is likely to be seen as a kind of green light for other world leaders, particularly those who have,

03:41you know, who are at odds with other countries?

03:44I'm saying that that potentially is the case. You could see, and Israel has done this in the past,

03:52Israel kidnapping Hamas leaders in various countries. Now it's done that in the past with,

04:00with other people, including going far back to the 1960s with Adolf Eichmann,

04:04Afghanistan, who was the sort of the godfather of the gas chambers of the Nazi regime. So

04:15what it potentially re-establishes that precedent, if you wish.

04:21Are we no longer in the, the era of international law and global order? Is, is that just now a mere

04:31suggestion in this age of incursions into other countries and kidnapping and capturing

04:39world leaders and bringing them back to your own country to be tried and tested under, under charges?

04:45You can question whether we ever were truly in, in the era of the, of rule of law. But what certainly

04:53is, uh, is the case and most, many people would argue that you've had, uh, a total breakdown of the rule

05:02of law, uh, starting with the Gaza war, if not already with the, uh, Russian incursion into Ukraine in

05:092014 and the 2022 full-fledged attack on Ukraine. All right. Um, James, talk to me a little bit about

05:18the, his, what history has taught us when we look at U.S. involvement in regime changes elsewhere in

05:26the past. Uh, if you look at Iraq, at Libya, at Afghanistan, um, and taking into account what

05:33President Donald Trump has said about managing this transition, about effectively running the country,

05:38um, in this transition, where have you seen those assumptions that the U.S. can effectively manage a

05:46transition collapse? Where, what can we learn from U.S. involvement in the past?

05:52I think you could, uh, argue that most, the overwhelming majority of U.S. military interventions

06:00aimed at regime change have failed. Uh, they certainly failed in Afghanistan. Uh, they certainly failed in

06:09Somalia. Um, to some degree at a very high cost, but nevertheless, Iraq is not necessarily a failure.

06:20And what in many ways was a success was the, uh, 1989 intervention in Panama, which is the intervention

06:30with which Venezuela is most, uh, most compared to. Now, the fact of the matter is Venezuela is not

06:38helped Panama. And there were good reasons, uh, why it succeeded in Panama, all reasons that don't exist

06:47in Venezuela. Right. So, so then talk to me a little bit about what this means. What typically goes wrong

06:55when, uh, a leader is removed? So in this case, you have the lead, the, the president and his wife

07:03being removed, but the system is still in place. So what typically goes wrong first, once the leader

07:09is removed? Well, first of all, look in, in Venezuela, the jury is out. The, clearly the strategy

07:19is to take out Maduro and his wife and keep the regime in place. In the belief that you have enough

07:27leverage, enough coercion, enough intimidation to, uh, force the regime in place to comply with your demands

07:39and your policies. Whether that's the case in, in Venezuela remains to be seen. There are indications

07:48that that that may be the case. Uh, you've seen much more moderate language by Delci Rodriguez prior, uh,

07:57after her swearing in. There are reports that a deal with her was cut prior to the U.S. apprehension

08:05of, um, uh, of, uh, Maduro. So it's not a given that Venezuela will be a failure.

08:14It's a, it's definitely a significant risk.

08:19What you need is of course, and that's what you had in Panama.

08:24So if you look at Panama, United States invaded. Within, on the night of that invasion,

08:32the post Noriega president was sworn in on an American military base, but was sworn in.

08:39You had troops on the ground. Those troops on the ground were there prior to the, uh, invasion. Not

08:46because of the invasion, but because Panama hosted the U.S. southern command at the time.

08:53Uh, and you, so you had in place a transition government of your choice. And you had the troops

09:01on the ground. You don't have that in, um, in Venezuela. And again, the calculation on Trump's

09:09part is that he doesn't need them, that this regime will fall into place. And the fact that you've

09:16established facts with the apprehension of Maduro, and you have an armada off the coast,

09:22will be sufficient to keep that regime in place. Time will tell.

09:26Uh, something you said in the, in the, at the start of the conversation, James intrigued me. You

09:30said at least Trump's honest and not couching this under, um, you know, uh, claims of upholding

09:37democracy. He, Donald Trump has said that U.S. uh, oil companies could be moving into Venezuela.

09:45Talk to me a little bit about this honesty. What does it justify? What can we read into it?

09:52Well, let, let me, let me take a step back. First of all, I think that the, uh, intervention in

10:00Venezuela was about sending a message first and foremost to the region, but potentially beyond

10:08the region. Think of Iran. Uh, Trump has said that he would intervene if the regime in Tehran continues

10:17to kill protesters. Uh, so this was about sending a message. He's emphasized oil and he has a sort of

10:27obsession with oil. What he hasn't emphasized is something else that Venezuela has, which is rare

10:34earth minerals and many other resources. Uh, the issue with oil is keep in mind, none of the U.S. major

10:45oil companies has said anything about this until now. They're not jumping. They're waiting to see.

10:54Uh, the fact of the matter is that it would take a tremendous investment. You know, estimates range from

11:0135 to 60 billion dollars to, uh, uh, to resurrect the Venezuelan oil industry. Uh, and it will take

11:12several years. So this is not something that's going to happen immediately, but there's one other aspect

11:19to all of this, and that is Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves. What does that mean?

11:29That means that Venezuela has almost as much oil as the United States and Saudi Arabia combined.

11:39That is an, if you have leverage or control of that, that is a phenomenal position. It changes

11:46potentially the balance of power in the international oil market, which for decades,

11:53Saudi Arabia was the swing producer. It could lose that position. So oil has a lot of, uh, a lot of

12:02significance beyond the fact on, uh, how many barrels a day are you producing?

12:10Um, okay. So where do we go from here? What are you going to be watching out closely

12:15for? You said at the beginning, we have more questions than we do answers.

12:19What answers are you looking for, for the questions you have right now?

12:23Uh, I think the most important question really, or the most important thing to watch is

12:28what does the regime in, in, uh, Caracas do?

12:32Uh, to what, to what degree are they willing to cooperate? Uh, the acting interim president

12:41has said that she wants, uh, respect and balance relations with the United States.

12:46She wants to work with the United States. We don't know what that means. For now, she has been able to

12:53keep the regime together. You've seen the military unite behind her. Uh, is that going to be sustainable?

13:02I, uh, to what degree is Trump going to be flexible to ensure that she can succeed

13:10on his, uh, more or less on his terms. So there are a lot of issues out there that one needs to watch.

13:17That's interesting times indeed, James. Thank you so much for being on the show. James M. Dorsey there.

13:23Um, and we'll be right back with more on the issue of the U.S. incursion into Venezuela,

13:28what happens next. Stay tuned to consider this. We'll be right back.

Consider This: US Strike on Venezuela (Part 1) — What’s Trump’s Endgame?

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