00:00Hello and good evening. I'm Melissa Idris. Welcome to Consider This. This is the show
00:15where we want you to consider and then reconsider what you know of the news of the day. It's
00:19been days, just days after the US has captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a dramatic
00:27special forces operation. The focus now is shifting from how it happened to what it all means. What
00:34does it mean for Venezuela, for US power and for a world already on edge? So the move has drawn
00:42international criticism and has also reopened old questions about US intervention in regime change.
00:50So let's discuss this further. Joining me on the line is James M. Dorsey, who is an adjunct senior
00:56professor, senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. He's also an author
01:02and host of the Turbulent World podcast and syndicated column. James, thank you so much for
01:08being on the show with me today. Now, we've had a few days to process the capture of Maduro. I'm just
01:14wondering for you, how have you been thinking about this moment in history? What does it represent to
01:22you, particularly about how the US sees itself currently?
01:28Sorry. First of all, we're in a situation in which we have more questions than we have answers.
01:36Having said that, I think what's evident is that whatever happens, this is a paradigm shift. And it's
01:44a paradigm shift, not necessarily only for the United States, and not necessarily only for Latin America.
01:53Clearly, this is the United States establishing. And to be fair to President Trump, he's honest about it.
02:01In contradiction to his predecessors, who mostly cloaked this kind of operation in promotion of
02:11democracy, promotion of human rights. Trump says it straight out. This is about dominance in the Western
02:18hemisphere. And we'll have to see how this all unfolds, whether or not this is a relatively peaceful,
02:29relatively efficient transition process, or whether or not this is going to be very tumultuous
02:36and destabilizing. Right. Whatever, if I may, just whatever this, whatever happens in Venezuela,
02:45the question is, what's, or for that matter in Colombia, if Trump were to proceed with his threats,
02:54what this, what's, there is nothing that stops Russian President Vladimir Putin from attempting to
03:01apprehend Vladimir Zelensky on charges that he is a Nazi, or Xi Jinping to apprehend the leader of Taiwan
03:13on the assertion that the leader is a secessionist. So this sets a precedent that potentially goes beyond
03:22the United States and its sphere of influence, if you wish. So are you saying that this move
03:30is likely to be seen as a kind of green light for other world leaders, particularly those who have,
03:41you know, who are at odds with other countries?
03:44I'm saying that that potentially is the case. You could see, and Israel has done this in the past,
03:52Israel kidnapping Hamas leaders in various countries. Now it's done that in the past with,
04:00with other people, including going far back to the 1960s with Adolf Eichmann,
04:04Afghanistan, who was the sort of the godfather of the gas chambers of the Nazi regime. So
04:15what it potentially re-establishes that precedent, if you wish.
04:21Are we no longer in the, the era of international law and global order? Is, is that just now a mere
04:31suggestion in this age of incursions into other countries and kidnapping and capturing
04:39world leaders and bringing them back to your own country to be tried and tested under, under charges?
04:45You can question whether we ever were truly in, in the era of the, of rule of law. But what certainly
04:53is, uh, is the case and most, many people would argue that you've had, uh, a total breakdown of the rule
05:02of law, uh, starting with the Gaza war, if not already with the, uh, Russian incursion into Ukraine in
05:092014 and the 2022 full-fledged attack on Ukraine. All right. Um, James, talk to me a little bit about
05:18the, his, what history has taught us when we look at U.S. involvement in regime changes elsewhere in
05:26the past. Uh, if you look at Iraq, at Libya, at Afghanistan, um, and taking into account what
05:33President Donald Trump has said about managing this transition, about effectively running the country,
05:38um, in this transition, where have you seen those assumptions that the U.S. can effectively manage a
05:46transition collapse? Where, what can we learn from U.S. involvement in the past?
05:52I think you could, uh, argue that most, the overwhelming majority of U.S. military interventions
06:00aimed at regime change have failed. Uh, they certainly failed in Afghanistan. Uh, they certainly failed in
06:09Somalia. Um, to some degree at a very high cost, but nevertheless, Iraq is not necessarily a failure.
06:20And what in many ways was a success was the, uh, 1989 intervention in Panama, which is the intervention
06:30with which Venezuela is most, uh, most compared to. Now, the fact of the matter is Venezuela is not
06:38helped Panama. And there were good reasons, uh, why it succeeded in Panama, all reasons that don't exist
06:47in Venezuela. Right. So, so then talk to me a little bit about what this means. What typically goes wrong
06:55when, uh, a leader is removed? So in this case, you have the lead, the, the president and his wife
07:03being removed, but the system is still in place. So what typically goes wrong first, once the leader
07:09is removed? Well, first of all, look in, in Venezuela, the jury is out. The, clearly the strategy
07:19is to take out Maduro and his wife and keep the regime in place. In the belief that you have enough
07:27leverage, enough coercion, enough intimidation to, uh, force the regime in place to comply with your demands
07:39and your policies. Whether that's the case in, in Venezuela remains to be seen. There are indications
07:48that that that may be the case. Uh, you've seen much more moderate language by Delci Rodriguez prior, uh,
07:57after her swearing in. There are reports that a deal with her was cut prior to the U.S. apprehension
08:05of, um, uh, of, uh, Maduro. So it's not a given that Venezuela will be a failure.
08:14It's a, it's definitely a significant risk.
08:19What you need is of course, and that's what you had in Panama.
08:24So if you look at Panama, United States invaded. Within, on the night of that invasion,
08:32the post Noriega president was sworn in on an American military base, but was sworn in.
08:39You had troops on the ground. Those troops on the ground were there prior to the, uh, invasion. Not
08:46because of the invasion, but because Panama hosted the U.S. southern command at the time.
08:53Uh, and you, so you had in place a transition government of your choice. And you had the troops
09:01on the ground. You don't have that in, um, in Venezuela. And again, the calculation on Trump's
09:09part is that he doesn't need them, that this regime will fall into place. And the fact that you've
09:16established facts with the apprehension of Maduro, and you have an armada off the coast,
09:22will be sufficient to keep that regime in place. Time will tell.
09:26Uh, something you said in the, in the, at the start of the conversation, James intrigued me. You
09:30said at least Trump's honest and not couching this under, um, you know, uh, claims of upholding
09:37democracy. He, Donald Trump has said that U.S. uh, oil companies could be moving into Venezuela.
09:45Talk to me a little bit about this honesty. What does it justify? What can we read into it?
09:52Well, let, let me, let me take a step back. First of all, I think that the, uh, intervention in
10:00Venezuela was about sending a message first and foremost to the region, but potentially beyond
10:08the region. Think of Iran. Uh, Trump has said that he would intervene if the regime in Tehran continues
10:17to kill protesters. Uh, so this was about sending a message. He's emphasized oil and he has a sort of
10:27obsession with oil. What he hasn't emphasized is something else that Venezuela has, which is rare
10:34earth minerals and many other resources. Uh, the issue with oil is keep in mind, none of the U.S. major
10:45oil companies has said anything about this until now. They're not jumping. They're waiting to see.
10:54Uh, the fact of the matter is that it would take a tremendous investment. You know, estimates range from
11:0135 to 60 billion dollars to, uh, uh, to resurrect the Venezuelan oil industry. Uh, and it will take
11:12several years. So this is not something that's going to happen immediately, but there's one other aspect
11:19to all of this, and that is Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves. What does that mean?
11:29That means that Venezuela has almost as much oil as the United States and Saudi Arabia combined.
11:39That is an, if you have leverage or control of that, that is a phenomenal position. It changes
11:46potentially the balance of power in the international oil market, which for decades,
11:53Saudi Arabia was the swing producer. It could lose that position. So oil has a lot of, uh, a lot of
12:02significance beyond the fact on, uh, how many barrels a day are you producing?
12:10Um, okay. So where do we go from here? What are you going to be watching out closely
12:15for? You said at the beginning, we have more questions than we do answers.
12:19What answers are you looking for, for the questions you have right now?
12:23Uh, I think the most important question really, or the most important thing to watch is
12:28what does the regime in, in, uh, Caracas do?
12:32Uh, to what, to what degree are they willing to cooperate? Uh, the acting interim president
12:41has said that she wants, uh, respect and balance relations with the United States.
12:46She wants to work with the United States. We don't know what that means. For now, she has been able to
12:53keep the regime together. You've seen the military unite behind her. Uh, is that going to be sustainable?
13:02I, uh, to what degree is Trump going to be flexible to ensure that she can succeed
13:10on his, uh, more or less on his terms. So there are a lot of issues out there that one needs to watch.
13:17That's interesting times indeed, James. Thank you so much for being on the show. James M. Dorsey there.
13:23Um, and we'll be right back with more on the issue of the U.S. incursion into Venezuela,
13:28what happens next. Stay tuned to consider this. We'll be right back.
Comments