00:00The next storm to form in the Atlantic is going to be the seventh named storm of the year.
00:05Today, again, we're running a little bit past the average start date for the seventh named storm.
00:10So we're a little behind average there.
00:12We've only had one hurricane so far.
00:14On average, our second hurricane would have been with us for about a week, week and a half now.
00:18And our second major hurricane typically forms around September 19th.
00:21So we're running a little behind the average for tropical storms and hurricanes.
00:26But we're not that far off at this point.
00:28And here is our disturbance that we're calling a tropical rainstorm.
00:32It is really battling some dry air right now.
00:35And it's moving westward.
00:36So, again, Tortola and the British Virgin Islands out this way.
00:40We have a lot of dry air between our westbound tropical disturbance, a tropical rainstorm,
00:46with just a little flicker of deep convection out there and the islands right now.
00:51So, again, it has to overcome a lot of this dry air.
00:54And at this point, this is a 12-hour loop.
00:56You'll notice the westward extent of the moisture.
00:59It's not making a deep push into the dry air.
01:02The dry air is holding strong.
01:03This is kind of the opposite of what we saw when Aaron replaced the dry air that was in its path.
01:09There's also some wind shear, which is a little bit prohibitive for rapid development here in the short term.
01:15So there's a headwind and some strong winds here that are kind of just keeping things disheveled and disorganized.
01:20Now, with all that said, we do expect to still see some strengthening.
01:24We have slightly been hedging, maybe a little slower.
01:28And there's perhaps a slight tendency for things to come a little farther south into the islands.
01:34But we have a long ways to go before we see even the current status of the storm become a tropical storm.
01:39That could happen later this weekend.
01:41And we may see a hurricane by around the middle of next week, early to mid parts of next week.
01:45And this could conceivably, if it survives the dry air, survives the wind shear to the north, it could become a hurricane.
01:52And you can see the latest forecast from our team here at AccuWeather.
01:55We're looking at the potential for gusts of wind 100-plus miles per hour if this does indeed become a hurricane in areas around places near and north of Martinique and up into parts of the Virgin Islands.
02:06So heavy rainfall is going to be a big concern.
02:09San Juan, 4 to 8 inches.
02:11The BVI is also looking at a 4 to 8-inch forecast here.
02:14That will be a concern.
02:15AccuWeather local storm acts of potentially up to 12 inches with mudslides and so forth.
02:19So that's a concern.
02:20We've got to keep a close eye on this in the middle part of next week, mid to late next week with mudslides, heavy rain.
02:25But there are admittedly some big questions about how this is going to behave with that dry air in its path and some wind shear.
02:33So we do have a high risk.
02:34You can see we're going with a high risk of tropical rain and wind mid to latter parts of next week for the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques, Calabria, and areas around Puerto Rico.
02:45A medium chance into Hispaniola and a low chance through the 19th of September farther west from Cuba into the eastern U.S.
02:53And, again, that's some good news.
02:55That graphic there was from Aaron from a couple of weeks ago.
02:57Nothing quite like that.
02:58But here's Kiko.
02:59Kiko is, again, a Category 4 hurricane.
03:02Kiko has been kind of fluctuating in intensity.
03:05Maxistain winds 130 miles per hour.
03:07It's back up to 130.
03:08This is where it was about 48 hours ago.
03:10And we expect Kiko to continue to move west.
03:13So, again, it is now, again, a 4.
03:15And this is going to become a tropical storm before brushing the Hawaiian Islands sometime next week.
03:20We're also tracking some moisture from former Hurricane Lorena into Texas.
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