Skip to playerSkip to main content
  • 4 months ago
Transcript
00:00Hey, let's take a look at that final game tonight in Philadelphia.
00:02Philadelphia Phillies looking for a four-game sweep over the Atlanta Braves.
00:05Usually that'd be a huge story because the Braves and the Phillies usually
00:07tangling to try to win that division.
00:08Not the case this year.
00:09The Braves are done.
00:10Got a good performance yesterday at a sale,
00:12which just wasn't good enough because their bats didn't show up.
00:15I got a problem with this guy, Hurston Waldrop.
00:17Where did he come from and what the hell is going on?
00:20First start, Tom.
00:21Five and two-thirds innings pitch, one earned run.
00:23Second start, six innings pitch, one earned run.
00:26Third start, six innings pitch, no earned runs.
00:28Fourth start, seven innings pitch, no earned runs.
00:31Fifth start, they lit him up.
00:33Five and a third, one earned run.
00:35Who is this guy?
00:38I will say, every time a Braves pitcher comes up,
00:42he does well in his first few starts, whether it's Schwellenbach,
00:45whether it's Smith-Schauver.
00:47We got to look at, Donnie, I will say, those starts have been great,
00:50but Cincinnati, Miami, Cleveland, Chicago White Sox, Miami again.
00:54That's true.
00:55Not the top-of-the-line talent when it comes to who he's facing.
00:59And you could say Cleveland, they had been playing better as of late,
01:01but that's not like murderer's row that he has to be tested against in his first few starts.
01:06So when we're looking at Waldrop, when it comes to his minor league numbers,
01:10like he had some pretty good strikeout stuff in minor league numbers.
01:13Middle of the road, 25%, 23% strikeout rate.
01:16Doesn't have a whole lot of home runs.
01:18He's going up against the Phillies today, Donnie.
01:20I would not be buying into a 30-inning sample size of what we've gotten from him
01:24over five starts as an indication of what we should be getting from him tonight.
01:29He's 23.
01:30He has 30 innings pitched at the major league level against super soft competition.
01:34I think the Phillies bounce back.
01:36Luzardo, on the other side, we know has had to put together a fantastic season.
01:39It's arguably one of the best he's ever had.
01:41Give me the Phillies to come away with a sweep.
01:43As for runs tonight, Philly's team total is probably the best way to go about it.
01:47Look at Luzardo's last 45 days here, 443 ERA, but analytics likes him a lot.
01:52343 XFIP number, 343 Sierra number.
01:55So very good numbers there.
01:56You take a look at Waldrop.
01:57Again, his ERA, 0.90.
02:00Now, granted, he does have a FIP number of 232.
02:03XFIP is still manageable, 370.
02:05His ERA minus is a 21.
02:06His FIP minus is a 59.
02:08Like, he has some insane numbers.
02:10But also, let's get back to the fun and some things that don't make any sense.
02:13You saw the Philadelphia Phillies and Kyle Schwarber in the Mets here.
02:17I think he's like 0-18.
02:18Like, didn't even get a base knock.
02:19Then he rips the cover off the baseball start in the Braves' series.
02:22Did he know his last month?
02:23Like, numbers that don't make sense.
02:25Schwarber's hard contact rate, Tom, is 78%.
02:28His barrel rate is 29% against right into pitching.
02:32His BAPIP is a 211.
02:34Like, some things just don't compute.
02:36Bryce Harper, same thing.
02:38High barrel rate, hard contact rate, 238 BAPIP.
02:40J.T. Romuto, 61% hard contact rate, 11% barrel, 223 BAPIP number.
02:46Like, some things have to change.
02:48Like, how is that possible for Schwarber?
02:51Well, we've got to remember for batting, home runs are obviously not factored into that.
02:56True.
02:56Because it's batting average of balls in play.
02:58And a home run is not a ball in play.
03:00Yeah.
03:00So, you're right.
03:01It means that, like, he should be having more doubles down the line, more doubles off the ball, more single.
03:07Yeah, so it is – I mean, that has kind of been Schwarber's thing his whole career.
03:10So, I would say for as good as his numbers have been in the home runs, the normal base hits, I guess we'll just call them that, obviously, balls in play, those should actually be increasing.
03:20That's not a surprise with those numbers.
03:24Yeah, I guess you just take Kyle Schwarber and say, like, don't worry about over bases.
03:27Like, it's just a home run, and that's what you're banking on.
03:29Because if your bowel rate is that high, like, two things can happen, right?
03:32Bowel rate, 30%, roughly, and BAPIP, 211.
03:34Like, yeah, every ball is leaving the ballpark at that point right now.
03:37How about a couple off the wall, Schwarber, even out that BAPIP number that we have at this point?
03:41But Walls has been fantastic.
03:43But as Tom pointed out, not necessarily going up against Murderer's Row.
03:4675-degree temperatures in Philadelphia, very light wind blowing in from right field.
03:50Should be a good hitting environment.
03:51And also, keep in mind, it's not a day game here.
03:53So, this is going to be a night game.
03:54Not going to have to worry about any shadows in the middle of the afternoon.
03:57Hey, you can't see the baseball.
03:58You'll see it just fine tonight, Sunday Night Baseball.
Be the first to comment
Add your comment

Recommended