Baltimore Orioles vs.San Francisco Giants: Dynamics & Best Bets

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00:00405 start eastern here. Let's head out to the west coast here. Maybe some might call it the

00:04best coast. Can we get some heat and humidity in these ballparks and get some runs? We're talking

00:07about Baltimore and San Francisco. Not a ballpark notorious here for runs, but I got to tell you,

00:12some of these spots that you might just be passing over like, yeah, I'm not taking that over. I'm

00:15going to tell you why you might be should be in on some of these. Sugano versus Verlander today.

00:19It's the Orioles and the San Francisco Giants. The line overnight, minus 140s. Let's dip back a

00:24little bit here. Fandel 138. You got 135 at BetMGM. Still have a 143 at DraftKings and a total

00:29that opened up at eight and a half and still sits at eight and a half. When I look at Verlander on

00:34my card today, I have him 20th out of 27 pitchers, last 45 days in XFIP numbers. And also when I take

00:40a look at Sugano, he's 22nd here at a 4.68. ERA is much better, but we worry about analytics in just

00:48a few moments, Tom. I'm going to tell you why I like both of these lineups, but how do you feel

00:51on Baltimore and San Francisco, Sugano and Verlander? Cautiously optimistic, I think is the

00:57best way to put it, where we have seen a lot of scoring over these two teams, from these two

01:04teams in the past. Two games were double digits from San Fran on Friday, 11 from the Orioles

01:10yesterday. We're getting some runs and there is a little bit of a heat wave hitting the

01:14West Coast. It's obviously not as dramatic in this game as we'll get to in some of the

01:17next two games. And there is wind blowing out at 10 miles per hour, but the ballpark

01:21has been built to minimize the impacts of wind. But why not continue? Why not continue

01:28with the runs when these pitchers and ultimately now their bullpens with the ball gone from the

01:33Giants and the Orioles guy who's escaping me, who was straight to the Mets earlier, their

01:39bullpens are actually weaker. Yeah. So I don't know, the reliever was straight from the Orioles

01:43to the Mets, but their bullpens are weaker. So why not get runs across the board when we've

01:49seen great hitting environments over the past two days? And I don't want to say these teams

01:53have mailed it in, but let's go out there and put on a show and get some runs on the

01:56board. Look, Sugano's been pretty good, but his analytic numbers are leaking a little

02:00bit. And here's some times where I get excited because no teams impress me more than the

02:05teams that nobody wants to take. Unless you get inside the numbers and go, should you

02:08actually be taking this team? Should you be backing them? And I got a lot of that like

02:11in midway through the season with the Chicago White Sox. That team thinks you can't bat and

02:15look at their record. No, they actually perform at the plate. They just can't pitch to save

02:19their lives. You look at the San Francisco Giants coming into today. Sugano's on the

02:22mound. He's a right-handed pitcher. Just take right-handed pitchers against that San

02:25Francisco Giants lineup, Tom, over the past 30 days with hard contact rate. Ramos, 48%.

02:30Devers, 70%. Adamas, 46%. Dom Smith, 51%. Chapman, 43%. Schmidt, 52%. Jung Ho Lee, 57%.

02:39Matos, 82%. Bailey, 48%. Like everybody has hard contact. It's a decent barrel rate for them

02:45as well. But I just say, law of averages for me, it should start to weigh out at this

02:50point. By the way, their bat is equally impressive against their hard contact rates. And maybe

02:55the good times do roll. If you are looking on the other side and say, well, Donnie, what's

02:58Verlander giving to you? Actually had a pretty good start last time out. Seven earned the time

03:02out before that at San Diego. It's not a lot if I look at that I love, but the hard contact

03:07rate, Tommy, seven out of nine batters high. Barrel rates, Jackson, Henderson, Mountcastle,

03:13Couser, Beavers, Carlson, six heavy weighted barrels here. And I'm looking at a seven and a

03:18half and basically an eight and a half price saying, I think we can at least get the three

03:22or four runs aside, which puts you in that ballpark late in the game for a total.

03:26It really does. And one of the things for the Orioles is this season, their pitching has been

03:31atrocious, but really for the most part, like their hitters have basically shown up for the

03:35majority of the season and they got hot for a little while, but again, it's, they weren't

03:40losing games because of their hitting. You're losing games because they had Charlie Morton

03:43at the end of the year was giving up seven earned runs and they still scored five of their own.

03:47But again, them getting runs across against Verlander, it's not going to shock me when

03:51we're dealing with above average hitting conditions in San Francisco.

03:56Yeah. You look at Sugano again, he is 22nd on my card and Verlander is 20th pitching in the

04:00same game and you're like, Oh, they got to get 10 runs to score. No, they don't.

04:03You take an alt line with a little bit of juice at seven and a half, you get around eight,

04:06you have eight and a half with plus money at that point. You can certainly sort of cash in

04:10on some of those options here. And maybe I look forward to doing that a little bit later.

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