00:00McKenzie Gore, the lefty on the mound. Struggle bust this year? Absolutely.
00:04Verlander on the other side. Struggle bust, but not so much lately here.
00:08909, 910 on the rotation, a 405 start. Gore versus Verlander.
00:12Heavy favorite for the Giants. And by the way, the odds market backing the Giants overnight.
00:15Minus 145s right now. Minus 155s. Minus 160s in the marketplace, Tom.
00:20But as always out in San Francisco, that total is listed at 8.
00:23Gore, Verlander today on the mound for an afternoon battle.
00:26So of pitchers on today's slate, Donnie, over the last 30 days since July 10th,
00:34McKenzie Gore is arguably the second or third worst pitcher,
00:39depending on what kind of sample size you want to work with, with a 605x fit.
00:44And his ERA is up at 13.2. And this is McKenzie Gore, who started off the year
00:49lights out, could have been one of the league leaders in strikeouts.
00:52The shining bright light of their pitching staff for the Nationals.
00:55And he has been terrible. As of like now, Donnie, this is what we also talk about.
01:00The Giants don't score. They're not a good offense.
01:03So we don't have that puzzle piece to match up.
01:05It's like, well, we have a horrible pitcher and we have a lineup that doesn't do this thing.
01:09Now we actually have a good pitcher who's struggling,
01:11but we also don't have a lineup that's good right now and putting runs across the board.
01:15So if Gore bounces back, am I going to be surprised?
01:19And then if the Giants offense scores, am I going to be surprised?
01:21No on either side. So for me, this game's kind of a stay away.
01:25If I had to pick, it'd be Nat's money line and the under.
01:28Yeah, he's had a good season here. And, you know, I'm going to have a pitching prop that
01:32I'm going to give out on McKenzie Gore just a little bit later in the show, but he is better
01:34on the road. 71 in the third innings pitch this season on the road. How about a 389 ERA
01:38and a 352 XF number? And also he's in the perfect pitcher's ballpark.
01:42We're not saying he's going to be great because his numbers over the past 30 days
01:45has been absolutely brutal. But understand this too, as Tom's pointing out,
01:49when you have a bad pitcher, what do you love? Oh my goodness,
01:51this lineup looks fantastic going up against them. That's not the Giants lineup.
01:55Like even if you tell me Gore's last 30 days, a 348 ISO against and a 520 weighted on base
01:59percentage, that's not like three or four batters. Like, oh, was this that reliever
02:02had to come in for a quick at-bat? That's 85 batters he's faced. He's getting tuned up
02:06at this point. But look at the ISO power numbers for the San Francisco Giants
02:09against left-handed pitching time over the past 30 days.
02:12Ramos, 105. Chapman, zero. Flores, zero. Jung-Hoo Lee, zero.
02:16Casey Schmidt, 111. Patrick Bailey, 056. Drew Gilbert, zero. Like the only guy in that lineup
02:22is Willie Adamas with a 571. That's only through 17 at-bats. So just because you're a bad pitcher,
02:27you need somebody to exploit that. And I don't know if that's going to be the case.
02:30But if you look on the other side with Verlander, hasn't been that bad as of late here.
02:33But the question is, look, we know Washington's on the West Coast. It's a lost season right now.
02:37It's a getaway day. Let's just get out of town. And sometimes that plays into it.
02:40But I think Verlander might have a chance to be not a shutdown pitcher, Tom, but five innings pitched,
02:45one or two earned runs, keep his team in the game. And maybe that's worth a price point here
02:49of what you're getting on the San Francisco Giants.
02:52It could be like Verlander in terms of XFIP over the last 30 days, he's at 535 and Mackenzie Gore's
02:58at 605. So it's not like he's been dramatically better in terms of the XFIP, but the ERA for
03:03Verlander over the past 30 days is 255. He's only on 0.51 home runs per nine. So like he has been
03:08much better in recent, you know, 17.2 innings than he was prior to that. He was bad to start the season.
03:14So again, I would take the Nats because of the plus money, because when it's all said
03:18and done, like Verlander isn't dramatically worse compared to Gore. And I just trust Gore's
03:23talent overall. But yeah, give me, give me the Nats and the under.
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