Yankees vs. White Sox: Analysis of Luis Gil and Martin Perez

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00:00This is an interesting matchup.

00:02Luis Keel, some of the Yankees desperately need to snap back into form.

00:05You want to go on a pennant run here?

00:07He's got to be able to perform better than what he has.

00:09Going up against Martin Perez.

00:10Yeah, that Martin Perez.

00:12That I think is pitched since like 1992.

00:14The only issue, Thomas.

00:16Martin Perez, he should be fadable.

00:18His last two starts, the guy's trying to win a Cy Young at this point.

00:21What gives?

00:21The Yankees are a heavy favorite.

00:23Minus 185s to minus 190s.

00:25A total that opened up at 8.5, now sitting at 9.

00:27I want to take the over.

00:29But why is Martin Perez holding me back?

00:33Martin Perez is one of those pitchers, Donnie, that falls into the Kyle Hendricks.

00:39Why are you succeeding when you should be getting blown up kind of territory?

00:44And, you know, Luis Keel, when you're looking at things simply from a game log perspective,

00:49you're saying, okay, in each of his last three starts, he's only giving up one earned run.

00:53And he's gone, what is it, at least five innings pitching all those.

00:56And he has five, three, and four strikeouts.

00:57However, four, five, and three walks as well.

01:01So when we're looking at Keel from an XFIP number, he is the, what is this, the second worst on the slate at 5-2-0,

01:08right behind Senga over the last 45 days.

01:11His ERA is 3-7-5.

01:12But he's overperforming by a run and a half because he strikes people out.

01:16But he also allows way too many on base for free.

01:19And when it comes to Martin Perez, yeah, he's been pitching forever.

01:22I don't think he's a good pitcher.

01:24Again, this is the team I think the Yankees, this is the type of pitcher I think the Yankees will struggle with.

01:28On paper, they should be blasting this guy for five earned runs over the first two innings.

01:33I will say, I kind of like the White Sox today.

01:36We have to get to the dog of the day segment.

01:38A little spoiler for that.

01:38I think the Yankees are looking ahead to Tuesday when they play at the Astros and they have an off day tomorrow.

01:44I think the White Sox are in a sneaky good spot.

01:49It's really interesting because I look at Martin Perez, and I know Martin Perez.

01:53He's just that filler pitcher like, yeah, he has a couple good starts, but he's just an innings eater at this point.

01:5785 pitches, seven innings pitched, no earned runs versus Kansas City, which is unbelievable.

02:03And the time before that, he went to Atlanta, which I think I was on that game too.

02:05Like, oh, Perez is back in baseball.

02:07He should get hammered.

02:07He goes five and a third and no earned runs.

02:10You look at the Yankees lineup, Tom, against the last 30 days.

02:12Sometimes you struggle with lefties.

02:14They don't.

02:15The hard contact rate is extremely high.

02:17The barrel rate is extremely high.

02:19And they say, okay, well, that's one half of the equation.

02:21You never relate.

02:22I love the White Sox.

02:23Almost 75% of the days I look at the White Sox, they make sense on offense.

02:27Hard hit contact rate, barrel rate up there.

02:29Luis Hill, not a very good pitcher, but understand this.

02:33His last 45 days, Tom, you say, wait a second now.

02:35ERA, 375, but his XFIP numbers and Sierra numbers are off the charts bad.

02:40If you're going old school analytics, look at his last five starts.

02:43Three and a third innings pitched, five earned runs.

02:45That's terrible for Hill.

02:46Five and a third, two earned runs.

02:48That's really good.

02:48Five and a third, one earned runs.

02:50That's really good.

02:50Five innings pitched, one earned run.

02:52And then five innings pitched, one earned run.

02:53What gives with Hill today?

02:55Like, every analytical number we love, Tom, he's terrible at.

02:58But his ERA has been phenomenal his past four starts.

03:03It's because he walks players.

03:05He gets one strikeout.

03:06And then he gets a ground ball and gets a double play.

03:09So, fundamentally, you're not doing things well.

03:11I think it was against the Red Sox.

03:13I think he pitched on Saturday in the Red Sox series where he started off the inning.

03:16He walked two of the first three.

03:17There was a single.

03:18All of a sudden, there's bases loaded.

03:19And he gets out of that with only one earned run.

03:22Because you strike someone out and then you get a ground ball at double play.

03:24And the inning is over.

03:25So, walking players is obviously terrible.

03:28And then having a lower-ish strikeout rate isn't great as well.

03:31You look at the top of this lineup, Donnie.

03:33At least a handful.

03:34Tauchman, Teal, Montgomery.

03:36Those three guys, the lefties, I think get some power against Hill today.

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