00:00Yeah, let's go to the team or one of the teams we just spoke about,
00:03and that's Freddie Freeman for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
00:06And I like him for two-plus hits today at plus 190.
00:10Now, this is different than two-plus little bases.
00:11Obviously, it has to be two-plus hits.
00:13He could get the two-plus little bases in one hit and obviously all these permutations.
00:17But as I said, beautiful hitting weather out there in L.A. today for the Dodgers.
00:21Brandon Fott has been absolutely terrible.
00:23Freddie Freeman, awesome for the Dodgers really the entire season outside the beginning
00:27when he was a little bit injured.
00:28But plus 190, the hitting environment is there.
00:31The matchup is there.
00:32The number is there for him, more importantly.
00:34I see this as a way to go about getting a piece of the Dodgers without going to their money line.
00:38So Freddie Freeman come through, two-plus hits, plus 190.
00:41There you go.
00:42Sneaky little action for me.
00:44I'm going to go with the team total, Tom, and it's a low team total.
00:46It's 3.5 at a minus 125 price.
00:47It's on the Pittsburgh Pirates.
00:49Maybe you're not paying attention to them, and yes, Giolito is a pretty good pitcher,
00:52but the analytic numbers tell me a little bit different story
00:55where we don't need six, seven, eight, nine runs to cash it in.
00:58You need four runs here.
01:00If I look at that Pittsburgh lineup against right-handed pitching over the past month, Tom,
01:03I got seven-plus batters with hard contact and also an additional six batters with a high barrel rate.
01:10You're playing at Fenway here.
01:11Runs should be hard to come by, but there's no reason to believe that you can't get two runs early,
01:15meaning in the first five innings, and then pick off a couple in extra innings if you need them,
01:20or just late in the game, sixth inning, seventh inning, eighth inning, ninth inning,
01:23and you always get the extra bat on the road, making sure you get those nine innings.
01:28Like, oh, man, they had three runs.
01:30Would have loved to see them in the bottom of the ninth inning.
01:31Not the case here.
01:32Pittsburgh is always going to have that.
01:34If I do look at the starting pitcher on that side, Giolito is a good pitcher,
01:37but Giolito also has some high metrics, which include a 4.86 Sierra number.
01:41I'm going with a team here that many people will pass over.
01:44I think there's a legitimate chance we get four runs here in the marketplace going up against Giolito
01:48and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
01:51I don't know if they win the game, but I don't care.
01:52Score four runs, I win a bet, and that's all I care about here.
01:55Tom, let's get to some pitching props here.
01:57Are we keeping it in Boston today?
02:00We are, and that's going to Giolito, and it's not a strikeout.
02:04Let's go to over 17.5 outs recorded, and again, Giolito is a good pitcher.
02:10I do expect him to give up some runs, but the Red Sox bullpen has also been taxed over the past couple days
02:16with this series against the Pirates, and knowing what they have coming up,
02:19they need Giolito out there for some length.
02:21So, you know, seeing him go eight innings in a couple of these recent starts is obviously fantastic,
02:26knowing that they'll let him go that deep into the game, but we don't need him to get to eight.
02:30You know, we need him to get into that sixth inning.
02:31So, I like him to get to six.
02:33I like him to keep things under control moderately today.
02:36Again, two or three earned runs over six innings.
02:38He still gets him a quality start if we want to use that term, but he gets to six.
02:42The Red Sox win the game, but it's not going to be pretty once the bullpen comes in.
02:46I do think Donnie's bet will cash.
02:47Red Sox win this sixth.
02:49Let's go.
02:49Oh, I love a sixth to four action, man.
02:51Hitting totals out there, people getting RBIs, people getting runs, people getting home runs.
02:54That's what we want to see.
02:55I'm going to take my pitching prop here out to the West Coast.
02:57I'm going to go after Justin Verlander.
02:59It's simple to me.
02:59I don't think he's a very good pitcher overall.
03:01If you look at his statistics, okay, 108 XFIP minus over the past 45 days, 446 XFIP number,
03:07and you take a look at a general number on the Sierra as well, right around that XFIP number.
03:11But if we are looking at Verlander, last time he threw 100 pitches, it was in a – I'm dating this back about a month here.
03:18Threw 100 pitches, went five innings, and no earned runs.
03:21He followed the next start up, still threw 100 pitches, but I don't care.
03:24I'm sorry, but the 100 before that, he actually gave up five earned runs.
03:27You know what happened this last start?
03:29Threw 101 pitches, six innings pitched, two earned runs.
03:32His next start, I expect him to get hit today.
03:34I don't need him to be phenomenal.
03:36I don't need him to be terrible.
03:37I just need him out of the game under 16 and a half outs.
03:40If you also look at his pitching performances here, it's a lot of five innings, five innings, five innings, five innings, seven innings, four and a third, and six innings.
03:48So we're probably looking at that game plan.
03:50Hey, kid, I call Verlander a kid.
03:52Get me through five innings.
03:53We hand it over to the bullpen.
03:54We'll see what happens.
03:55I don't think he pitches more than five innings.
03:57I'm going under, Tom, 16 and a half outs here.
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