Keller vs. Giolito: Will Run Totals Exceed Expectations?

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00:00and we have mitch keller on the mound versus lucas giolito 975 976 on the rotation of 135

00:06start tom favorite here overnight minus 160 minus 165 they're now raised up minus 180 minus 187

00:13minus 182 minus 172 in the sports landscape and a total listed at eight and a half i got a sneaky

00:19suspicion about this game i'm going to explain in a few minutes tom i think we might get some

00:24runs in beantown today i think we're getting runs as well uh i like the red sox coming up to win

00:30today i don't love their money line today obviously it's super juice but i just don't think

00:34any team that's at least competent and we're in a playoff spot should be getting swept by the pirates

00:39when it comes to the pirates mitch keller is on the mound and mitch keller has been terrible as of

00:44late donnie since july 15th mitch keller senior 759 era his ex-rep is at 437 yeah like that's kind of

00:53just been where he is like 437 that's when's good when's all said and done not amazing but recent

00:58starts three earned runs one home run five earned runs one home run six earned runs no home runs

01:03two earned runs no home runs five earned run three home runs for mitch keller since uh the 28th of july

01:10recent stretch has been terrible now giolito on the other side now he's been kind of good you know he's

01:15been he's been good better than i expected really especially as of late for the red sox and kind of on the

01:20season overall he certainly had his ups and down but the runs today like you said i think should

01:24be coming and you give me four or five runs out of the red sox i think this game clearly pushes over

01:29i assume the red sox team total i have to double check would be four and a half but red sox win

01:34red sox team total and we have a player for a home run which we'll save for a little bit later

01:38yeah we'll take a look at the weather too 74 degrees which you like wind blowing in from right

01:42field eight miles per hour you don't really like that too much but again it's still a great hitter's

01:46ballpark here if we take a look at the two pitchers on the mound mitch keller actually comes in 18th on

01:50my card today over the last 45 days with an exit of 4.37 era 7.59 not a great strikeout pitcher but

01:57the last 45 days around nine strikeouts per nine innings which is one which you like to see that

02:01analytical numbers are certainly high but also when we're matching them up against the boston red

02:05sox lineup tom sometimes it's not so much about like what's their iso power number what's their

02:09weighted on base percentage that's what's happened in the past like i tend to find myself looking a

02:13little bit more at hard contact rates for batters and also barrel equations and when we get into

02:17that too which i know you have something on roman anthony later tom his last 72 at bats against

02:22right-handed pitching his hard contact rate is 74 so to put that in layman's terms people every three

02:27out of four bats he's crushing the baseball and then you want to amplify that if you can average tom

02:32like a barrel rate of like 10 percent like per plate appearances you're elite his barrel rate over

02:39the past month against right-handed pitching 23 so when i just told you three out of every four

02:45batters or three out of every four attempts at the plate he's hitting it hard but one out of every

02:49quarter is a straight square up absolute hammer job let's just say time to get four bats today

02:55barrel one up that's all you need for some rbis some home run chances so keep an eye on that but i do

03:00like the hard contact rate today for the red sox but also lucas giolito on the opposite side tom

03:04last 45 days yeah he's got a 3.64 era but analytics don't love this guy 4.93 xfip tom 4.86 sierra number

03:13not a big strikeout guy and a lot of times i told you pay attention to these central divisions the hard

03:18contact rate today anticipated for the pirates seven out of nine batters is high how about also

03:23seven batters plus on barrel rates here it's one where you say donnie lucas giolito 104 pitches eight

03:29innings no earned runs don't care about that last start i just care about how the numbers match up

03:33today and i think we get runs i think we get runs too and you know looking at giolito i may also have

03:39a prop on him a little bit later which we'll get to he's still been up 1.53 home runs per nine over

03:44the last 45 days so you know i'm not gonna say he gives up five run runs today because i do think he

03:50has a decent performance today but you give me a solo shot and a two run homer that's three runs from

03:55the pirates right there and if the red sox can do their thing and add in four or five of their own

03:59we are pushing towards that over today so i think and the red sox do bounce back that's where i'm

04:04leading they bounce back and they put up runs

04:06you

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