- 6 months ago
Misty Heggeness, an associate professor at the University Of Kansas, joined Forbes senior editor Maggie McGrath on "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss working mothers leaving the workforce at the fastest pace since the pandemic.
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00:00Hi, everyone. I'm Maggie McGrath, editor of Forbes Women. Working mothers of young children
00:08are leaving their jobs at the fastest pace we've seen since the pandemic. This is according to new
00:15analysis from Misty Hagenis. She's an economist and associate professor at the University of
00:21Kansas. And she's here to talk about this trend, what she's found and what it means for the
00:28broader economy. Misty, thank you so much for joining us. Thanks for having me. So you used to
00:35work for the Census Bureau. So you looked at the micro data behind jobs data effectively and are
00:41finding a concerning trend about working mothers. Can you tell us top line what you found? Yeah. So
00:47in the first half of 2025, working mothers, or I'll just say mothers in general, ages 25 to 44,
00:56who had children under the age of five, experienced a three percentage point decline in labor force
01:03participation. A 3% decline. How does that compare to other recent periods of US history? So what I
01:11think that means is, you know, we've had an opportunity to learn about ways in which we can
01:18engage with caregivers and mothers of small children in a way that allows them to be productive in the
01:24labor force. And, you know, that presents us with a potential ability to understand what we might want
01:33to do or policies we might want to implement to get them back into the labor force.
01:40And we'll get to what it would take to reverse this trend. But I want to keep digging into this
01:44decline, because what your data seems to suggest is we've effectively erased all the gains that we saw
01:50during the pandemic. And you also look at different groups within the broader group of women with
01:56younger children. Is there one demographic group versus another that is leaving the labor market at
02:03a faster rate than the others? Yeah, so I did also look at this by marital status, and mothers who are not
02:13married essentially dropped at almost double the rate. So I think it was around seven or 7.5 percentage
02:20point drop in the first half of 2025 for mothers who are not married. And what does that mean for
02:26our economy? What or what do you think it means? Well, when I think of the economy and what it might
02:31mean for our economy, I generally start thinking about households. That's where the majority of my research
02:38lies and thinking about labor supply and how households engage with the labor market. And I
02:43think it is really concerning if we're seeing big shifts, big and rapid shifts in labor force
02:50participation of some of our caregivers who are in some sense potentially the most vulnerable because
02:56they have less access to resources, less access to informal support systems that they can rely on.
03:05And if those mothers are not able to actively engage in paid labor, you know, we should all be concerned
03:14about what's going on and what what's going on with the well-being of their families. And also how that then
03:20moves into how we might think about their participation in the economy generally.
03:27Do we know if they're leaving the workforce is voluntary versus involuntary, which is to say,
03:35are they choosing to leave their jobs or are they part of some of the layoffs we've seen at the federal
03:40level and in the private sector as well this year?
03:44Yeah, so we don't know for sure. There are a couple of ways in which we could think about this
03:50situation and what might be happening. It is true that, you know, the federal government has
03:58enacted an iteration of risks or reduction in force mechanisms that have really reduced the
04:10government workforce and caregivers and women generally disproportionately take up jobs that tend to be
04:18more flexible. Government jobs tend to be more flexible. And so there's generally more women and more
04:23caregivers in government jobs. And so that could be having an influence here. There's also with this
04:30return to office policies that started in January and have started with the federal government and
04:37and also then transitioned into some of the bigger employers. Return to office tends to be
04:44relatively unfriendly to people who have large amounts of informal family care in their lives.
04:53And so some women could be stepping back from the workforce either because they've been asked to
04:58return to office and they can't figure out how they're going to be able to do that and add the out,
05:02you know, the time for the commute into their day along with all their carry caregiving responsibilities or
05:09maybe they haven't yet asked to return to office, but they've been told that it's going to happen.
05:13And in anticipation of that fact, they might be choosing to leave the labor force.
05:21You have also written about the cultural headwinds facing women and women of young
05:27children. Could you talk about what we're seeing culturally that could be contributing to this
05:30decline in their labor force participation?
05:35Yeah, you know, there's a lot going on culturally just in terms of the shifting dynamics
05:40kind of at the top, if you will, or the way in which policymakers today are
05:49thinking about families and thinking about, you know, women and work. And that could also be
05:55influencing the level of support that women and caregivers feel within businesses, within the labor
06:05market. And that could also be having having an effect.
06:11Now, you've looked at the data over the last few years, and it felt like there was a bit of an
06:15increase in women's employment and mother's employment. And then it took a decline. When did
06:20this decline begin? And are you able to forecast how long it could continue?
06:24Yeah, so the decline that I was looking at in the data really, you started to observe it in February
06:33of 2025. We started the year at a really high note. So mother's labor force participation was
06:39very high in January and has since been on the decline up through June. It did make a slight recovery
06:46in July. So if you were to compare January to July, it's a two percentage point decrease over that time
06:53period of the 3% that we see from January to June. Keep in mind that mother's labor force participation
07:01often is volatile and sensitive to schooling and when their children are in school. And lots of
07:09mothers of young children are teachers and have other types of jobs that are pegged with the educational
07:15industry. So, you know, I, I do, I think it's a good sign that it went up between June and July.
07:23I think that this is probably an initial shock. And the one thing that I know about caregivers and
07:30women in general is that we are very persistent and very resilient. And so I would anticipate that there
07:36will be some sort of, um, rebound as, um, women and, uh, caregivers adjust to the new norms in society
07:45about, um, the expectations that employers and the, um, federal government politicians have
07:53on how a caregiver should engage in work. Um, but I don't foresee it ever returning to, um, the levels that
08:01we had, uh, right after the pandemic up through the end of 2024, because, um, I think in order for
08:07then we have to have more realistic assumptions and more realistic expectations on, um, how we're going
08:14to engage with workers in order to really maximize off of their productivity, given the situation of
08:20their lives. As you're talking, I'm thinking of the Forbes future of work summit that we had in 2023,
08:26and it felt like among the executives gathered, there was broad agreement that remote work is good
08:33for worker productivity. And it's a rather feminist policy that allows folks who have caregiving duties,
08:38either for young children or an aging or sick family member to still participate in the workforce.
08:45And it's frustrating to see some of these declines, frankly, and you've written about
08:51what this could mean over the longterm. You've said that when women step out of the workforce,
08:57it's a setback that can echo for decades. Can you talk about why you say that and how exactly it's
09:04a setback? Yeah. So it's a setback. I mean, I'll start by saying that, um, the way that I view our
09:11economy is really, um, it's a perspective of my own as a caregiver. Um, I really believe and view the
09:18economy as being something that was set up, not designed for women and caregivers. It was really
09:22designed for men who have, um, something that I call care privilege in that, you know, you're able
09:28bodied adult and you have somebody else who is a, who is cooking your meals for you, ironing your
09:33clothes, et cetera. So, um, just the labor market in general and our economy really, um, is, is, um,
09:41has struggles with being adaptable for the lives of women. And, um, I think what it, what happens
09:48is when we have employers who want to go back to the old norm, um, who want to have these very generic
09:59cross the board policies around return to work, uh, they're really going to, there's a couple of
10:05things that happen, I think in my head. Um, first, uh, it's going to reduce productivity
10:11just generally, uh, because, uh, if you're a manager of a group or, uh, an executive of a
10:18business, really what you want to do is tap into and harness the productivity of your employees.
10:22And you are going to be the most successful when you figure out how to do that, um, in the most
10:27efficient way and writ large telling everybody that they have to return to office and that you care
10:32more about, you know, a butt in the seat than you care about whether or not they're able to, um,
10:38really tap into and use their talent to, um, enhance the productivity of your, your business.
10:44Uh, you're deflating energy, you're deflating innovation, uh, and, and, you know, return to
10:50office works for some subgroups, but it doesn't work for all. So I really think that right now we're
10:56in a moment of opportunity where managers and executives who are willing to do the work to
11:04design, uh, a work environment that has options for multiple different groups of employees based on,
11:13um, these employees, you know, life situation. Um, those are the businesses that are going to thrive
11:19today and into tomorrow. Those are the businesses that are going to really be able to, uh, harness,
11:25um, and maximize the productivity of their employees and, um, you know, um, be the most
11:32successful and cutting edge. Um, so while it is frustrating, uh, that we are trying, you know,
11:38that there's, um, such a cultural push towards a return to, to, to the way that it used to be. Uh,
11:45I do think that the, um, the businesses who are interested in really listening to their employees
11:51do have even more of an opportunity today, um, to really tap into and harness some really
11:56excellent talent, especially talent from, uh, folks who are leaving these other businesses
12:01because of the returned office. That's a good point. It's a moment of opportunity,
12:06but I'm wondering, Misty, is it also a canary in the coal mine for the broader economy?
12:11This is a pretty significant decline, and we did see jobless claims last week, and this is for all
12:17Americans, not just women, rose by the most we've seen in months, and also the number of people
12:23seeking unemployment relief has climbed to its highest level in four years. So taken all together,
12:30what does that tell you about the American economy in late August, 2025?
12:37Yeah, I mean, I, I do think that we should be worried. Um, you know, one of the,
12:42the effects that I think we're going to see continue to happen is, um, you know,
12:46once the government started kind of slashing employees, it put a lot of people on administrative
12:51paid leave and a lot of that administrative paid leave processes is drying up. And, you know, in,
12:56in July, some of it ended, we're going to see more of it end in September. And those folks are going
13:01to start looking for work and they are going to start showing up in the unemployment role. So I do expect
13:05unemployment, um, you know, to really, um, not, not be in a good space or not, you know, reduce
13:13going forward because we're going to start seeing those people trickle in. Um, and then I also, I
13:18very much think that, um, parents of young, of young children, women of young children, I think that
13:23looking at, um, uh, black mothers and, um, black women's labor force participation in particular,
13:30all of those are very much canary and coal mine scenarios for, um, tipping us off onto what's
13:37probably in the future in line for us in terms of where the labor market is going.
13:43That's a sobering statement given the data and the trends that you are producing right now. But I
13:50am wondering, we've talked about remote work. Is there anything else or flexible work rather hybrid
13:56situations could certainly help some folks in caregiving situations, but is there anything
14:01aside from remote, flexible hybrid work that could help reverse the trends that you're seeing?
14:08Yeah. So I think that's a great question. Um, you know, one area that I think is really
14:15under tapped is this idea of networking and mentoring and, um, feeling like you're a part of a group.
14:22And so I think what happens, you know, to the extent that women are pulling
14:26back from the labor market because they're seeing these cultural shifts in, uh, how businesses
14:31want to treat employees, what expectations businesses have on employees. Um, if you're
14:37somebody that, um, that new expectation doesn't really fit easily for you and in your space,
14:43um, it is easy to get demoralized. It is easy to say, well, that's not going to work for me,
14:47so I have no other choice for to go to, to leave. And I think the more and more that we talk to each
14:52other and we realize that there's a group of us who are in the same boat. Um, there's a lot of power
14:57in that, in our ability to advocate as a group, um, to kind of push back on some of these more dominant,
15:03um, cultural trends that we're seeing and in the expectations that business owners have on us.
15:10I like that note of optimism. We've covered a lot of ground. Is there anything I've missed or anything
15:14else the Forbes audience should know about your analysis of labor market data right now in August,
15:202025? So if anything, I think that what we've learned, um, since the pandemic and the opportunities
15:25that we have right now to, um, think about, um, the situation of women at work is the pandemic has
15:32really shown that there is a feasible, um, pathway that we can get more women into the labor force
15:39and that the solutions, the policy solutions to do that are not that monumental. They're not
15:45that complicated. And so, you know, if, if we do want to reverse this trend and we do want to, um,
15:51continue to try to get more women, especially as small children into the labor force, um, you know,
15:57essentially what we could do in the policies that we could, uh, um, focus on would be, um, around this
16:03idea of flexible work and, um, uh, you know, remote work and those type of policy solutions. So the answer is
16:12right in front of us. We've just had this really interesting natural, natural experiment, um, you
16:18know, to, to show, to show us, um, that it is possible now just, um, relies on the efforts and the
16:25interests of, of business leaders to take it upon themselves, um, to reverse some of the trends we're
16:31seeing today. Misty Hageness, economist and associate professor at University of Kansas. Thank you so, so much
16:38for joining us. Thank you for your insights. We really appreciate your analysis and please come
16:43back anytime. Thank you. Thanks for having me.
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