- 2 months ago
One of the most infamous coaching decisions in sports history was more like a series of compounding decisions: Late in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS, Grady Little decided to keep his starter, Pedro Martinez, in the game pitching against the New York Yankees. Even when some Yankees got on base, Little stuck with his guy. Even when the Yankees chipped away at Boston's lead, Little stuck with his guy. In the end, Little's decision(s) would doom Pedro, doom the '03 Red Sox, and doom his own career as their manager. It was a big, big deal. It also could have gone very differently with just a bit of luck. Let's take a look.
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00:00Okay, that's probably it for Pedro Martinez.
00:03Not a bad outing at all.
00:05Bullpen just needs to hold this lead,
00:07and the Boston Red Sox will be American League champions.
00:10Wow.
00:11Oh, they're leaving Pedro out there for the eighth inning.
00:15Hmm.
00:16Well, that's not good.
00:17Time to pull him.
00:18Bullpen time.
00:19Make the call.
00:20Make the call.
00:21They're still leaving him out there?
00:23What is Grady Little thinking?
00:25Ugh, please, Pedro, just get out of this and...
00:27Oh, no.
00:30Red Sox manager Grady Little's decision to leave Pedro Martinez on the mound
00:34in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS was a big, big deal.
00:40This video is presented by T-Mobile,
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00:46Go to T-Mobile.com slash network to see how.
00:50In Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS,
00:53the Red Sox had their hated rival, the New York Yankees, on the ropes.
00:57Boston held a 5-2 lead entering the bottom of the eighth inning.
01:01Six more outs, and the Sox would advance to the World Series.
01:05Just one problem.
01:06Boston's ace righty, Pedro Martinez,
01:09one of the most dominant pitchers in the history of baseball,
01:12was starting to wobble a little bit at the end of a strong outing.
01:15Martinez had just given up a home run in the seventh inning
01:18and had thrown exactly 100 pitches.
01:21The heart of the Yankees' order was due up.
01:24This was Red Sox manager Grady Little's problem to solve.
01:28Managing a potential pitching change in the late innings of an ALCS Game 7
01:33would be a high-stakes proposition no matter what.
01:35But history hinged on this particular decision.
01:39Boston hadn't been to the World Series since 1986.
01:43They hadn't won a World Series since 1918.
01:45They had never been closer to cracking the notorious Curse of the Bambino,
01:51a long and miserable parade of mistakes and misfortune.
01:56If the Red Sox mishandled their pitching situation,
01:59they risked handing Game 7 back to the Yankees.
02:02Not only their historic rival,
02:05but the smug, big-money, evil empire bully of all Major League Baseball.
02:09Since Boston's last AL pennant,
02:13New York had won five,
02:14punctuating four of those runs with World Series trophies.
02:18Incidentally, over in the National League,
02:20the Chicago Cubs had witnessed a bizarre,
02:23harrowing extension of their own curse just days prior.
02:27That only intensified the desperation for Sox fans.
02:30With a worn-down ace and all that at stake,
02:33Little had a few options.
02:35Option one, pull Pedro Martinez off the mound
02:38and bring in someone from the bullpen.
02:41Option two, let Pedro keep pitching.
02:44And of course, number three, cry.
02:46Crying is always an option and often the best one.
02:49Pedro himself believed his manager would go with option one,
02:53and he had company in that belief.
02:56Boston's trainer believed Martinez was fatigued
02:58because he had said as much.
03:01Boston's lead executives watching from the stands
03:03believed their bullpen was up for the task
03:05of getting six high-stakes outs on the road.
03:07And within that bullpen,
03:10Boston's pitching coach believed he had a lefty,
03:12Alan Embry, ready to face the next batter
03:14in New York's lineup, left-handed Nick Johnson.
03:17The stats actually disagreed with that last thing, though,
03:20so it wasn't that big a surprise
03:22when Martinez returned for the bottom of the eighth
03:25to face Johnson.
03:26Pedro got him out.
03:27Cool.
03:28No harm done.
03:29Score unchanged.
03:30Five outs needed.
03:31Same problem as before,
03:33Pedro's pitch count now stood at 107,
03:37firmly in the territory where stats showed his effectiveness
03:41dropped from legendary to ordinary.
03:45The math said to take option one.
03:48Still,
03:48Little left Martinez out there to face Derek Jeter.
03:51Pedro got himself an 0-2 count,
03:53but left his third pitch a little low,
03:56allowing Jeter to drill it into right field.
03:58Trott Nixon maybe could have made a play out there,
04:01but got a bad jump on it
04:02and ended up flailing at a ball over his head.
04:05Tiny moments like that one
04:07can make or break a bold decision.
04:10Pedro himself has recounted a time
04:12he stayed on the mound
04:13way longer than anyone expected,
04:15Game 5 of the 99 ALDS vs. Cleveland,
04:18and pitched near perfectly.
04:20It was a super risky move,
04:21perhaps not the sensible choice,
04:23but Pedro rose to the occasion.
04:25But, just as easily,
04:27a single brain fart or errant blade of grass
04:30could have made that decision in 99 look stupid.
04:33During this very 0-3 playoff run,
04:36Grady Little had faced a similar situation with Martinez.
04:39He decided to leave Pedro on the mound
04:41with a lead in the eighth inning,
04:42then watched Martinez give up two hits in a run.
04:45Little pulled Pedro mid-inning,
04:47then his bullpen cleaned up the mess,
04:49and Boston advanced to face the Yankees.
04:51That decision was overshadowed in history
04:54because Boston won anyway.
04:56The point is,
04:57in this Game 7 against New York,
04:59you could tweak one tiny little variable,
05:02but leave everything else the same
05:03and get a different historic result.
05:06If Nixon got a perfect jump off Jeter's bat,
05:08maybe he would make a great catch,
05:10and there would be two outs,
05:11and everything else thereafter
05:13would have gone differently.
05:14But he didn't,
05:16and the combination of well-hit ball
05:18and defensive miscue were not enough
05:20for Little to lose faith in Martinez.
05:22One hit didn't change his mind,
05:24neither would a high pitch count.
05:26Pedro was his man,
05:28more than anyone in the bullpen.
05:30Little trusted Pedro's stuff,
05:32which, to be fair,
05:32still had a lot going for it.
05:34Several Yankees later said
05:36they didn't feel like Martinez was slipping,
05:38and Pedro's fastest pitch of the night
05:40was his very last one.
05:42Nevertheless,
05:43the Yankees were getting to him.
05:45The next batter,
05:46Bernie Williams,
05:47had no problem
05:48driving Jeter in
05:49with a single dissenter,
05:50tightening the score to 5-3.
05:53So after a few batters,
05:54this decision was not looking
05:56like a sage roll of the dice.
05:58It was looking like
05:59a disastrous example
06:00of gut instinct
06:01over empirical reason.
06:03But here's a question.
06:05Whose decision was it?
06:08Hideki Matsui was the next batter,
06:10a lefty.
06:11Southpaw Alan Embry
06:12remained available
06:13in the bullpen
06:13ready for that matchup.
06:15Option one was screaming
06:17in Grady Little's face.
06:18But this time around,
06:20Little strolled out to the mound
06:21and put the option
06:22in his ace's hands.
06:24He asked Martinez
06:25if he had enough
06:26to face Matsui.
06:27Basically,
06:28no one blames Pedro
06:29for his response.
06:30His shoulder was hurting,
06:32but a proud pitcher
06:33would never back down.
06:35Asked if he can retire
06:36a particular adversary,
06:37a pitcher would never say no.
06:40Pedro considered it
06:41his job to say yes
06:42and Grady Little
06:43had to know this
06:44about his ace,
06:45but he asked anyway.
06:47So yeah,
06:48Little returned to the dugout
06:49without a pitching change.
06:51Martinez would face Matsui.
06:53Again,
06:53Pedro got ahead in the count.
06:55Again,
06:55Pedro picked a spot,
06:57missed it by a little,
06:58and got punished for it.
06:59Still one out,
07:00still a 5-3 game,
07:02men on second and third.
07:03And now,
07:04Grady Little's decision,
07:06albeit with some input
07:07from Pedro Martinez
07:08had kind of gotten away from him.
07:10The next batter
07:11was Jorge Posada.
07:12And if you were going to let
07:13a worn-down Pedro
07:15face all those previous batters,
07:17you had to let him face Posada.
07:19They had been going
07:20at each other all series,
07:21with Posada allegedly
07:23saying something
07:23about Pedro's mother,
07:25and Pedro mocking Posada's ears.
07:27Martinez also had
07:28a pretty strong track record
07:30pitching to Posada,
07:31so here he went
07:32against yet another Yankee batter.
07:34Yet again,
07:35Pedro pitched himself
07:36into a favorable count,
07:38and when Posada made contact,
07:40it was just a little boink
07:41off the narrow part of the bat.
07:43For a moment,
07:44Grady Little's decision
07:45to leave Pedro on the mound
07:46all this time
07:47still seemed survivable.
07:49Yes,
07:50everyone was already appalled.
07:52Yes,
07:52the lead had already dwindled.
07:54But this looked like
07:55a weakly hit,
07:56catchable ball
07:56that would create
07:57the second out of the frame
07:58and hold both runners.
08:00The inning looked salvageable.
08:02The above could all be forgotten.
08:04Here again,
08:05we see the margins of fate.
08:07Plop!
08:08The ball dropped
08:09plumb in between
08:10three Boston fielders.
08:12Williams and Matsui scored.
08:14The game was tied.
08:16Only then
08:17did Little pull Martinez,
08:19pressing the option one button
08:21way too late.
08:22Option three looked
08:23more appropriate than ever.
08:25Embry and Mike Timlin
08:26pitched excellently
08:28to stop the bleeding,
08:29but in extra innings,
08:30Tim Wakefield surrendered
08:31one of the most famous
08:33walk-off home runs
08:34in baseball history
08:35to Aaron Boone.
08:36The Yankees advanced
08:37to the World Series
08:38while Boston mourned
08:39yet another harrowing
08:41playoff outcome.
08:42The curse continued.
08:44So many Red Sox failures
08:46in their prolonged title drought
08:48felt like cruel twists of fate.
08:51But if you reopen them,
08:52you can sometimes find
08:53a decision preceding
08:55the botched execution.
08:56Like, before Bill Buckner
08:58made his infamous
08:59through-the-legs error
09:00in the 1986 World Series,
09:02Sox manager John McNamara
09:04had left him in the game
09:05when many thought
09:06the logical move
09:07was to use a pinch hitter.
09:09Little had done
09:10something similar.
09:11He defied logic,
09:12dismayed every single
09:13interested party,
09:14and trusted his gut.
09:16Cruel twists of fate
09:17just finished the job.
09:19Some Boston media
09:20took a moment
09:21to appreciate
09:22all those marginal variables,
09:23all the what-ifs
09:24that could have mitigated
09:26the disastrous outcome
09:27of Little's decision.
09:29Also, he was one
09:30of the most successful managers
09:31in franchise history
09:32up to that point.
09:34But what Red Sox management
09:36wanted was calculation
09:38in the truest sense of the word.
09:40Long before that
09:41fateful Game 7,
09:43observers had the sense
09:44that Red Sox management
09:45was souring on Little
09:46because of his tendency
09:48to manage from the gut,
09:49to neglect the bevy
09:51of situational planning
09:52and mathematical analysis
09:54available to him.
09:55And that was the headline
09:56when Little lost his job
09:58a couple weeks
09:59after Game 7.
10:01Grady Little, they say,
10:02did not get fired
10:03because he decided
10:04to leave Pedro in the game,
10:06but that decision
10:07epitomized the reason
10:08Boston fired him.
10:10Management insisted
10:11they neither wanted
10:12to be a stats geek organization
10:14nor a salty dog
10:15traditionalist organization,
10:17but it was clear
10:18which side of that spectrum
10:19they felt Little represented.
10:21So, Little's decision
10:22became a major part
10:23of his legacy.
10:24When he was hired
10:25for his next job,
10:26manager of the L.A. Dodgers,
10:28it was all people
10:29wanted to talk about.
10:30And then when Little
10:31fell out with Dodgers management
10:33and resigned
10:34less than two years later,
10:35that decision remained
10:36part of every news story.
10:38And since we're here
10:39to talk about decisions,
10:40we cannot neglect
10:41the outcome of
10:42Boston's decision
10:43to fire Little.
10:45The Red Sox hired
10:46Terry Francona,
10:47and a year after
10:48Little's club melted down,
10:50the 2004 Sox
10:52made a legendary
10:53ALCS comeback
10:54against the Yankees,
10:55advanced to the World Series,
10:57and finally
10:58fully broke
10:59their franchise curse.
11:01There was another batch
11:02of high-stakes decisions,
11:04some of which
11:05probably defied reason,
11:06some of which resulted
11:07in super close calls.
11:09If any of these
11:10little things
11:11broke differently,
11:12if you tweaked
11:13any of these
11:13tiny variables,
11:15the 2004 Red Sox
11:16might have collapsed
11:17and broken hearts
11:18just like they did
11:19the prior year.
11:20But they didn't,
11:21and they didn't.
11:23That's how it goes
11:24with big deal decisions.
11:26You flip a switch
11:27one way or the other,
11:28and fate determines
11:29the rest.
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