- 5 months ago
Former Congresswoman Barbara Comstock (R-VA), chair of Our Republican Legacy, joined “Forbes Newsroom” to discuss the state of Virginia’s gubernatorial race between former Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and Virginia's Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears.
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00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes.
00:07Joining me now is chair of our Republican legacy, former Congresswoman Barbara Comstock.
00:11Congresswoman, thank you so much for joining me.
00:13Good to be with you.
00:15It is good to have you. And it's really good timing because this is an off election year.
00:20But one of the races we are keeping our eye out on is the Virginia gubernatorial race.
00:24A new polling out from Roanoke College this week shows that the race is, in fact, tightening.
00:30Democrat candidate, former Congresswoman Abby Spanberger, is currently ahead, though, of Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earl Sears.
00:38So to start off the conversation, what are your thoughts on the state of the race?
00:43Well, the entire race, Abigail Spanberger, has been ahead.
00:48And the incumbent Lieutenant Governor, Winsome Sears, who is running for governor, has been, you know, way far behind.
00:58And while this poll this week showed it a little closer than previous polls had,
01:05apparently this poll this week, the Roanoke poll, was using turnout numbers based on the 2021 election,
01:13the Glenn Youngkin race, which was, you know, a Republican good turnout year,
01:19which obviously was during, you know, the Biden administration.
01:24And, you know, usually what you have in Virginia is Virginia is reacting to whatever is the party in power,
01:33which obviously this year you have Donald Trump back in power.
01:37And Virginia's history with Trump in the presidency is not a good one.
01:45I can tell you that from personal experience.
01:48First of all, you know, when he came into office in 16,
01:53the Virginia state legislature had a supermajority in the House.
01:58And I think we're about 60, somewhere between 65 to 67.
02:03By the time Trump went out of office, they were down to 47.
02:06So between the 17 and 19 elections, it was a total wipeout.
02:11Ed Gillespie lost when he ran for governor, even though he was,
02:14he had been a very promising candidate and had almost beat Mark Warner for Senate in 14.
02:20And then we lost three House elections, three House seats in Congress.
02:27So including Dave Bratt, who had, you know, beaten Eric Cantor,
02:31and he was thought there's no way he can lose.
02:34That's a very safe, safe red seat.
02:36And that, in fact, is the seat that Abigail Spamburger won.
02:40And even though people, you know, went after her, you know, not in 20 and 22,
02:47you know, she has been very resilient and won in a swing district,
02:52which is why she has been such a strong candidate.
02:56Like you said, to your point, Virginia is a really interesting state because Biden won there in 2020 by 10 points.
03:04The very next year, Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin then won.
03:07In 2024, though, the Democrat turnout was different.
03:11Harris did win by five points, though.
03:13Do you think that means anything right now about the governor's race today?
03:17I know. I think she actually was Harris a little closer to six.
03:23But again, there was I think there was some issues in terms of the, you know, the war, you know, in the Mideast.
03:32You had a lot of some concern there.
03:36Maybe turnout wasn't what it should have been.
03:39And of course, there wasn't a lot of focus on Virginia as a swing state.
03:44So the turnout wasn't the way it might have been when there was more focus.
03:48But Donald Trump has lost Virginia in 16, in 20, in 24.
03:54He has consistently lost districts like my old district by double digit.
03:59And he, you know, that pattern continues.
04:02And when you look at areas now in the Richmond area where the suburbs are growing, that's the growth area in Virginia, those suburbs have turned more blue.
04:14And again, that's the area where Abigail Spamberger first represented.
04:19Her district has changed over time.
04:21But that's an area where she has been fairly strong and appeals to those suburban voters.
04:29And in her campaign, she's been very focused on sort of the kitchen table issues, you know, things like, you know, the cost of living, which, you know, if you look at the power, Donald Trump is in what the high 30s, maybe cost of living, cost of housing, inflation, all those things that Donald Trump ran on that won him the election.
04:52The people were concerned with Joe Biden about, you know, a year later, you know, a year later, people have those same concerns, the cost of living, kitchen table concerns, and those haven't been alleviated.
05:07So not surprisingly, Winsome Sears is not running on those issues because you can't run on those issues when none of those issues have been solved.
05:16And it's been reversed.
05:19And Abigail Spamberger is able to run on those, hey, day one, we were going to get, you know, we were going to solve inflation, we're going to solve cost of living.
05:26And none of those things have been resolved.
05:29And you have a very big impact of all the firings from Doge, where Winsome Sears has made some big gaffes, kind of saying, hey, you know, everybody loses jobs, what's the problem?
05:46And that has been a real gaffe.
05:49And then you have a huge money gap between the two.
05:53And then most recently, you've had the endorsement of the police, which usually goes to Republicans.
06:03And in fact, the lieutenant governor running on the Republican side, and the incumbent Republican attorney general, who's considered the strongest of the three Republican candidates, they both got the endorsement of the police.
06:18But Winsome Sears did not get it.
06:22And Abigail Spamberger did.
06:24So that's a uniquely, you know, a big deal for Abigail Spamberger.
06:30I always got that endorsement.
06:32Most Republicans do.
06:34I think on the, in the delegate races, most of the incumbent Republicans are getting that endorsement, even some of the ones in swing districts are getting it.
06:47So the fact that Winsome Sears, who actually got that endorsement, as did Glenn Youngkin four years ago, she didn't get it.
06:56That's a pretty bad sign for what's coming up, too.
07:00But overhanging it all, I think the biggest problem for the whole ticket is the Trump effect.
07:09I want to talk about that a little bit more, because according to this recent poll, Winsome Earl Sears is down by seven points to trailing Congresswoman Abby Spamberger.
07:19But the other Democrats running for lieutenant governor, as well as attorney general, they're ahead, but their Republican counterpart is just behind them by three points.
07:30Why do you think there's that disparity?
07:32Do you think it's because Winsome Earl Sears isn't the best Republican candidate?
07:36What do you make of that?
07:37Well, she has not been a good candidate, but again, you do have that, you know, what you see in Virginia, you know, whereas, you know, four years ago, you had, you know, Glenn Youngkin was able to run against Biden and have that impact.
07:54That was a very close race because you had, you know, a former governor, Terry McAuliffe running against him, but you had that bad economy going on.
08:04You know, Glenn Youngkin was a very engaging candidate.
08:06He had a money advantage.
08:09He beat Terry McAuliffe out a little bit in the money.
08:13So, you know, he kind of had the wind at his back there.
08:16And I think you have the same kind of thing happening now that Trump is a big wet blanket on Virginia, both on raising money.
08:25He's hurting the down ballot races in the delegate seats.
08:30And he's, you know, the lieutenant governor and the attorney general.
08:35Well, actually, the attorney general on the Republican side is doing the best.
08:38He's doing the best at fundraising.
08:40Lieutenant governor does not have much at all money.
08:44But I think because these days you see so much party voting and you don't see too much ticket splitting, the indication seems to be if the top of the ticket goes by more than five or six points, the whole ticket probably will go down together is the expectation.
09:05And certainly, Abigail's been running more than five ahead in all of the polls.
09:12And she hasn't even you haven't even begun to see the big spend that you're going to see after Labor Day.
09:19And I think her money advantage is up to about three to one right now.
09:24I feel really lucky in the sense that I've been able to talk to other of your colleagues on our Republican legacy and the general sentiment I get from the former senators and members of Congress.
09:35Is that they want to bring the Republican Party away from MAGA, away from that movement, away from Trump and back to more Republican ideals from that perspective.
09:45I mean, how do you view this race?
09:47Does that mean you're supporting the more moderate Democrat, Abigail Spanberger?
09:52What does that really look like for you?
09:55Well, well, I am.
09:56I've gotten to know Abigail.
09:58She, you know, she's one, you know, she's been noted for being an effective legislator.
10:04She actually won an award that I won when I was in Congress for being one of the most effective members of Congress, passing sort of bipartisan legislation that she worked on with Republicans.
10:15You know, like I said, she got the police endorsement and she voted against Nancy Pelosi for speaker several times.
10:22You know, she stood up against her own party, something that Republicans in Virginia, like I did often, you know, are willing to, you know, used to be willing to do with their party.
10:34But in the era of Trump, you have to go along with whatever he says and with the doge cuts attacking so much, not just the federal employees.
10:46But in Virginia, you have this whole ecosystem of our federal contractors, our national security infrastructure, our veterans, you know, a third of those doge cuts are veterans.
11:00And so we have a huge veterans population here, not just in northern Virginia, but all throughout Virginia, down in Virginia Beach.
11:07And so these cuts have been a huge assault on our veteran population.
11:12I do want to talk about those doge cuts and how much they matter in Virginia, because a lot of the people who reside in northern Virginia, they're federal workers.
11:20And when Lieutenant Governor, when some Earl Sears was asked about the if she embraced doge cuts, she said, we don't want anyone to lose their jobs.
11:29She empathized with people who did lose their jobs.
11:31But she said Virginia has over 250,000 jobs open.
11:36What was the response, do you think, in Virginia to that type of answer?
11:40I mean, what do Virginians want to hear?
11:42Well, she also said, which has been effectively already used as an ad, you know, hey, everybody loses their jobs.
11:51And the problems that are available in Virginia do not match the job skills of those who are losing their jobs.
11:58And so first, it's not just that they're losing federal employee jobs.
12:02They're losing federal contractor jobs.
12:05Veterans are losing their jobs.
12:07So, for example, if you're a veteran, a third of those jobs are veterans.
12:11So if you're a veteran who's losing your job at the VA, there's not necessarily a replacement job in Virginia for that.
12:18If you're somebody, say, who's a specialist in national security, there's not a replacement for that.
12:26If you're a researcher at NIH living in Virginia, there's not necessarily a replacement for that job.
12:34Virginia has certain, a lot of the jobs that they had on their website were things like at nursing homes.
12:41Retail jobs.
12:43That's if you're a GS-15 at, you know, the NSA, you're not going to go work at a nursing home or work in at Tyson's Corner.
12:53So the replacement jobs have not matched in any way comparable.
12:58So that was a pretty seen as a pretty flippant response.
13:01And the mismatch, you know, Virginia does have one of the highest unemployment rates and job loss rates in the country because of Doge.
13:12And the Doge cuts have been more, they weren't surgical.
13:16They were a bulldozer.
13:18So to not have our people standing up for us.
13:22Listen, when I was in there as a staffer, when I worked for Frank Wolf, you know, people like George Allen, previous Republicans would stand up regardless of party when the president came in and went after our government employees.
13:38That is different now because these Republicans are afraid to say anything against Donald Trump.
13:45People notice that.
13:46Your first obligation as a representative is to represent your people, not Donald Trump.
13:53That's been the message that Abigail has said, because listen, Abigail has said, listen, I stood up against my party.
14:00I voted against Nancy Pelosi.
14:02I was the most bipartisan member in my delegation, in my caucus.
14:08I stood up when it mattered.
14:11Winston Sears and these guys aren't doing that.
14:14That's something that resonates.
14:16I found when I ran, because I was willing to stand up against my party, people appreciate that because that makes a difference for their jobs.
14:26And for, I mean, it's also about national security and about the importance of the work that these people are doing.
14:32And you're recognizing that their work is important, whether it's curing cancer at NIH, which, you know, Republicans, Newt Gingrich was leading the charge on that.
14:43Now that's been decimated.
14:45So people say, whoa, wait a minute, you Republicans were telling us you wanted to do that.
14:50Why are we decimating that office?
14:52And as somebody who voted for all those increases in the first Trump administration, I'm saying, yes, that is insane.
15:01And that nobody from our attorney general to Winston Sears is saying, hey, you can't do that.
15:10That was voted into law.
15:11You can't cut those grants without Congress doing something and nobody's standing up for that anymore.
15:18So that's the kind of thing that I do think resonates here in Virginia.
15:23And people realize this is a really different time.
15:26And I think that's having an impact.
15:30To that point, is this a Republican Party today that you recognize as someone who served in Congress as a Republican?
15:37And I mean, is there any Republican you look to now who you would like to be the standard bearer of your party going forward?
15:45Well, I look at somebody like Governor Kelly Ayotte, who had a great reputation when she was in the Senate and now as governor of New Hampshire, she is governing, looking out for the best interests of her state.
15:59And I think that's a great model that we can that we need in Virginia.
16:04And particularly when you're running for governor, you really need to be focused on these things, not looking to Washington and what Donald Trump wants you to do.
16:14Part of the reason why Glenn Youngkin was able to win in 2021 is aside from shoring up that Trump conservative vote in Virginia, he was also able to peel off a lot of the suburban vote as well.
16:25As of right now, whose message is resonating more with that suburban vote?
16:30Is it former Congresswoman Spanbergers or is it Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earl Sears?
16:35Well, like I said, you know, it is very much right now the focus is on that cost of living issues.
16:41And while last year during the presidential election, those issues went to the benefit of Republicans.
16:49Now, as you see, inflation is still going on.
16:53The cost of living is still high.
16:54Housing costs are high.
16:57Spanberger has been going out and putting out plans on all of those issues, whereas actually the National Review, a conservative, you know, online, you know, magazine just reported how Winsome Sears is not on the campaign trail much.
17:12She's not putting out policies.
17:14So these kitchen table cost of living issues that four years ago the ticket was running on Republicans, Sears isn't doing any of those things.
17:24She's mostly on cultural issues and mostly doing the Trump playbook from last year.
17:33Elections always have to be current and running on this year.
17:37But really in Virginia, the reason you're going to have delegate seats lost, the reason the ticket's going to lose is because Trump has always lost in Virginia and caused other Republicans to lose and bring the whole ticket down because his policies have been harmful to Virginia.
18:00And we're seeing that, you know, and we're seeing that, you know, just in a big way this year.
18:07Bigger, bigger than any time that I in the past, you know, eight years, much worse than in the first Trump administration.
18:14The country is really looking at this race as almost a sneak peek for the midterms next year.
18:22Is this giving any indication about what the midterms are going to look like and what messaging you want Republicans to run on?
18:29Well, you know, I remember, you know, I go far back to, you know, having supported George Allen in the midterm in 93 and obviously that helped in 94.
18:38I was on the ballot as a delegate in 2009 with Bob McDonnell, which did obviously portend for a great 2010 for Republicans.
18:48Bob McDonnell won by a big margin.
18:51So this has, you know, been usually a good indicator.
18:56Now, it didn't work well for Republicans in 2022, because even though Glenn Youngkin won in 2021, I would remind people, initially when he won his primary, he was not endorsed by Trump and he did not seek the endorsement.
19:14And even when he won the primary, he didn't, Trump never appeared with him in the general election.
19:20And while Trump did endorse him, Youngkin really ran on his own.
19:24He had his own money.
19:25He had his own message.
19:27He did not run as a Trump Republican.
19:30His links to Trump only came later after he won.
19:33So he ran as his own man and he won as his own man.
19:37But in 2022, you had all these candidates that came in and ran on the Trump message.
19:44And that's when Republicans massively underperformed in 2022, because all those Trumpers, you know, whether it's Hershel Walker down in Georgia or, you know, Dixon in Michigan and Cary Lake in Arizona, all those Trumpers went down in flames.
20:02And we underperformed in the House, even though they won, they underperformed massively from the expectations, even at a time when the economy and the wind was at the back of Republicans and they should have gained many more seats.
20:17So the Trump effect was really hurt them in gaining seats.
20:21So that, you know, again, Trump has been good for himself when he's on the ballot, but he hasn't been good for anyone else, particularly in Virginia and in swing states.
20:34And next year, I mean, that's why I think you see him scrambling to, you know, do this redistricting and cheating and trying to change the mail-in ballots.
20:44Because when he's at 38 percent, 37 percent, he's underwater on all these issues.
20:51You can't be winning the midterms on the current table that they have when you only have, what, a three-seat majority and you have people like Don Bacon retiring.
21:02And I think you're going to see more retirements.
21:05That's why they have to now, you know, try and change, you know, the seats in a way that will help them.
21:12But now that's starting off a scramble in California and New York, which I think is very unfortunate because it's really better if we debate the issues and run on the issues instead of trying to, you know, cheat on turnout.
21:28And I mean, listen, Virginia, we lost when Trump was in office on lines that we had drawn as Republicans.
21:35We lost that majority from 66 or 47 to 47 when we drew those lines because Trump was out of an effect.
21:47And I think, you know, there's nothing that can help when you have an unpopular president, no matter how much you try and, you know, no matter how much.
21:57I had more money than my opponent, you know, people literally were walking by me saying, listen, Barbara, I like you.
22:04You've actually done a good job.
22:06I like a lot of the things you've done, but I've got to send a message to Trump.
22:10And I literally was voted against by a lot of people who liked me, but wanted to have Democrats in charge to send a message to Trump.
22:20The midterms are always a message on Trump.
22:23Not that Democrats don't have a lot of problems of their own, but I think New Jersey and Virginia will, you know, moderate candidates win, you know, winning, which I expect they will, should be a message to the Democratic Party.
22:38Find moderate, good, sensible candidates.
22:41Roy Cooper in North Carolina, you know, sensible people like that.
22:46And you have a chance to make a comeback.
22:51But Republicans could also learn from that.
22:54Get sensible candidates.
22:55Do not run these nuts that you're running.
22:58And look at Michael Watley down in North Carolina.
23:02All he is is a, you know, Trump wannabe.
23:06He's just going to be whatever Trump wants him to be.
23:10And now you're having the same problem in Georgia.
23:12Instead of you had good candidates like Governor Kemp pass in New Hampshire, we've had good candidates like Governor Sunilu pass because they aren't Trump replicas.
23:24They're passing.
23:25And then you're going to get these Trump bots that will run and lose in states that would be winnable for Republicans.
23:32So our Republican legacy is saying, listen, what we need is to get people, Republicans who can stand on their own two feet, aren't afraid to be a little different, can be their own men, their own women.
23:47People like Kelly Ayotte, who's due, Kelly Ayotte just vetoed a book banning bill.
23:53What's wrong with doing that?
23:55In most places, Republicans would be afraid to do that.
23:59Governor Abbott would be scared to death to do that.
24:02You know, you've got Ken Paxson down there just trying to do whatever Trump wants.
24:09And now he's primarying John Cornyn and putting a Republican seat in danger.
24:14That's what's hurting the party is we don't have people who will stand up and be their own person and say when they think something is wrong.
24:24That Trump is doing, which there's a lot of things that are wrong that he's doing.
24:31We need a Congress.
24:32We need a Congress that's actually doing the role of Congress.
24:36Congress is, I don't even know why a lot of these people are even running again and are there because they just have handed over everything to him.
24:46They are letting him impound money that's supposed to go to their constituents, to their states, things that they voted for, cancer grants for their states, for their universities.
24:56He's letting them run roughshod over bills that they've voted for, that they champion, and then he says, I'm not going to enforce the bills or even let the money be spent that you appropriated.
25:09And they just roll over.
25:12What's the point of having a Republican Congress if they're not going to do even, you know, stand up for the bills that they've passed?
25:21Based on what you learned then, do you think it would be beneficial for Republican candidates in the midterms to more than distance themselves from Trump, say, I'm running as a Republican.
25:32This is a big tent party.
25:34I'm an anti-Trump Republican.
25:36I mean, does that messaging work?
25:37No, well, right now, Trump makes that impossible.
25:42If you try and do that, they will go after you and you will either lose your primary or you'll lose in the general election.
25:49So Trump doesn't care about the party.
25:52If you aren't with him, he wants you to lose.
25:54So that's unfortunately a very difficult thing to do in Congress.
26:00I think it's something that's easier done on the gubernatorial level, on the state level.
26:06But right now, Trump would rather lose than be, you know, than have somebody who is not his, you know, sycophant.
26:17That's basically how he has set things up within Congress.
26:22So that that is the problem.
26:24And that's what makes it so difficult.
26:27And that's why he's going to the extremes of redistricting states, because they don't really care.
26:33You know, they probably don't care that California and New York are going to lose their moderates.
26:38They'd rather have more red state extreme people so that then you'll have, you know, more extreme people who will just go along with him rather than have to worry about any of these moderates that might bring balance to the party.
26:56You know, he just wants people who salute when he says jump.
26:59Congresswoman Barbara Comstock, I appreciate your perspective here today.
27:06I hope we can have more conversations as we get closer to this race, as well as the state of the Republican Party overall.
27:13You are also the chair of our Republican legacy.
27:15Thank you so much for joining me.
27:17You're welcome back anytime.
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