00:00Like you said, to your point, Virginia is a really interesting state because Biden won there in 2020 by 10 points.
00:08The very next year, Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin then won.
00:11In 2024, though, the Democrat turnout was different.
00:14Harris did win by five points, though.
00:16Do you think that means anything right now about the governor's race today?
00:23No, I think she actually was Harris a little closer to six.
00:26But again, I think there were some issues in terms of the war in the Mideast.
00:36You had a lot of concern there.
00:39Maybe turnout wasn't what it should have been.
00:42And of course, there wasn't a lot of focus on Virginia as a swing state.
00:48So the turnout wasn't the way it might have been when there was more focus.
00:51But Donald Trump has lost Virginia in 16, in 20, in 24.
00:57He has consistently lost districts like my old district by double digit.
01:03And he, you know, that pattern continues.
01:06And when you look at areas now in the Richmond area where the suburbs are growing, that's the growth area in Virginia.
01:14Those suburbs have turned more blue.
01:18And again, that's the area where Abigail Spamburger first represented.
01:22Her district has changed over time.
01:24But that's an area where she has been fairly strong and appeals to those suburban voters.
01:32And in her campaign, she's been very focused on sort of the kitchen table issues, you know, things like, you know, the cost of living, which, you know, if you look at the power, Donald Trump is in what the high 30s, maybe cost of living, cost of housing, inflation.
01:50All those things that won him the election, that people were concerned with Joe Biden about, you know, a year later, or less than a year later, people have those same concerns, the cost of living, kitchen table concerns, and those haven't been alleviated.
02:10So not surprisingly, Winsome Sears is not running on those issues, because you can't run on those issues when none of those issues have been solved.
02:20And it's been reversed.
02:22And Abigail Spamburger is able to run on those, hey, day one, we were going to get, you know, we were going to solve inflation, we're going to solve cost of living.
02:29And none of those things have been resolved.
02:32And you have a very big impact of all the firings from Doge, where Winsome Sears has made some big gaffes, kind of saying, hey, you know, everybody loses jobs, what's the problem?
02:50And that has been a real gaffe.
02:53And then you have a huge money gap between the two.
02:56And then most recently, you've had a the endorsement of the police, which usually goes to Republicans.
03:06And in fact, the lieutenant governor running on the Republican side, and the incumbent Republican attorney general, who's considered the strongest of the three Republican candidates, they both got the endorsement of the police.
03:21But Winsome Sears did not get it, and Abigail Spamburger did.
03:28So that's a uniquely, you know, a big deal for Abigail Spamburger.
03:34I always got that endorsement.
03:36Most Republicans do.
03:38I think on the, in the delegate races, most of the incumbent Republicans are getting that endorsement, even some of the ones in swing districts are getting it.
03:50So the fact that Winsome Sears, who actually got that endorsement, as did Glenn Youngkin four years ago, she didn't get it.
04:00That's a pretty bad sign for what's coming up, too.
04:03But overhanging it all, I think the biggest problem for the whole ticket is the Trump effect.
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