- 7 weeks ago
On "Forbes Newsroom," Cliff May, founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies discussed President Donald Trump's separate meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
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00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now
00:07is Cliff May, founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Cliff,
00:12thank you so much for joining me once again. Brittany, always good to see you.
00:16It is great to see you because you and I actually spoke last week before the much anticipated
00:22Trump-Putin summit in Alaska. Now we're speaking a few days later, and I want to get your reactions,
00:27not only that, but the meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky as well.
00:32But we will first start with the Putin-Trump summit. Usually these types of summits, as you said last
00:38week, are choreographed, but you said this is different. You thought Trump is the type of
00:42negotiator who wants to sit down with Putin, look him directly in the eye. Do you think, A,
00:47that happened, and B, how successful was that last week? Well, let's be honest. I think what
00:53President Trump went into the Alaska meeting saying he was going to get a ceasefire or he would leave
01:01unhappy. He didn't get a ceasefire, so I have to figure he didn't have a big smile on his face
01:06as he got back in Air Force One and returned to Washington. Putin convinced him. Putin essentially
01:13said, look, you don't want a ceasefire, okay? Ceasefires come and they go. It'll be messy. It's not
01:19going to work out. Let's go for a piece, a real big piece, comprehensive piece. I think we can do
01:25that. Why don't you support me on that? And for whatever reason, Trump went along with that.
01:33I think it's going to be much more challenging than one might imagine. You know, just a couple
01:38of observations about Alaska that I think are important. Sergey Lavrov, who is the long-time
01:46foreign minister of Russia, he was wearing a shirt that in Cyrillic said, USSR. I think he was sending
01:53a message either that the Cold War isn't really over or remember that when we had a Soviet Union,
02:01Ukraine was our possession. Now it's Russia. Ukraine should be our possession again. I think
02:06he was sending either or both messages. You know, it's also true that President Putin put flowers on
02:16the grave of Soviet servicemen who had died in Alaska. I think he was trying to say, we were
02:21friends once upon a time. We can be again. But we need to remember that the U.S. became aligned with
02:29the Soviet Union only after Stalin signed a pact with Hitler. And then Hitler betrayed him. And two
02:36days after that betrayal, two days after the Nazi invasion of Russia, then Franklin Delano Roosevelt
02:43said, okay, we'll help Stalin defend his country. And the alliance lasted only until after Hitler's
02:50defeat. At which point, what happened? Well, the Soviets took over and made satellites out of Eastern
02:56Europe. So, you know, that was not a great relationship. I think it's important to understand
03:04that.
03:05Cliff, correct me if I'm wrong, but you saying, pretending to be Putin and saying,
03:09you don't want a ceasefire. Ceasefire isn't everlasting. You want a big peace deal. I mean,
03:16it sounds like Putin was stringing Trump along, which you and I said last week that was going to
03:22be his ultimate goal. Do you think he did that? And do you think he succeeded at that?
03:26Well, he obviously didn't get the ceasefire. He decided, and he went along with Putin's recommendation
03:32that we can get to a comprehensive peace. And now, you know, jumping a little bit ahead to Monday,
03:38I'm very pleased that the meeting between Zelensky and President Trump, with quite a few European
03:46leaders there showing solidarity, that seemed to go very well. We all remember the bad meeting that
03:54Zelensky and Trump had some months back. I think Zelensky did a much better job of diplomacy.
04:01And I think there's some reason for hope. But look, I am concerned. What are they talking about?
04:10They're talking about first a meeting between Zelensky and Putin. I can't even imagine how that
04:16meeting would play out. I can't imagine anything they would agree on. I can't imagine them shaking
04:21hands. That is a meeting between a predator and a prey. That's very hard for me to imagine.
04:29Now, President Trump is talking about, after that, a trilateral, meaning it would be President Trump.
04:35It would mean Putin. It would mean Zelensky altogether. That I can imagine because I can think
04:42of Trump saying, look, here's how I think this should go. Here's what I think is fair.
04:46There are a lot of people saying all Zelensky has to do at this point is give up some land.
04:53And if he does that, he'll end up with a country that remains independent and sovereign and free.
05:00And that sounds good. And maybe that's the case. But here's why I'm concerned. Putin wants Zelensky
05:07to give up not only the land that Russian forces have conquered, but a lot more land. According to the
05:15best assessment I've seen for Putin to conquer the land that he wants turned over to him through
05:21diplomacy would take Putin's forces four years and up to 2 million casualties. Huge. You can see why
05:28Putin would say, okay, this is great. If I can achieve in a meeting what my forces couldn't achieve
05:34on the ground for four years and with 2 million casualties, why shouldn't I do that?
05:38And some would say, even so it's worth doing if you get to peace. But here's the rub. I'm worried
05:45that the land that Putin wants Zelensky to give up, including what's called the fortress belt,
05:51which are fortified fortifications along a particular line and in some different terrain
05:58would leave Ukraine vulnerable to penetration in the future. Now, what's the answer to that? Well,
06:06people talk about security guarantees and that's a possibility, but I don't think we know what a
06:11security guarantee means right now. Is it a piece of paper? Is it British and French troops stationed
06:16in Ukraine? Is it America helping out with intelligence and drones overhead? If British or
06:23French troops were killed by Russian soldiers penetrating and marching to Kiev, what would happen
06:28then? There's just a lot of things. There's a lot of moving parts here. A lot of devils in the details,
06:34if you see what I mean, Brittany. There are certainly a lot of moving parts. I am curious,
06:40before we get to the potential bilateral and trilateral meetings coming up, President Trump
06:45said that he doesn't think you need a ceasefire. And this is different language, as you and I said,
06:51then was coming out before. Before it was, the goal is ceasefire. Does that concern you,
06:56him saying, I don't think there needs to be a ceasefire? Do you think there needs to be a ceasefire?
07:00I would certainly prefer a ceasefire. A ceasefire and then negotiations, not least because those
07:08negotiations are likely to take a long time and be very drawn out. With all the issues we've just
07:14discussed and many more, security guarantees, which parts of land will be given up, what happens to the
07:23Ukrainian children who have been abducted from Ukraine and taken to Russia for brainwashing?
07:29What about soldiers who have been captured by Bolsa? It's just so much to negotiate. It could take a
07:36very long time. They should be fighting during that time, or should they have a ceasefire during that
07:41time? Even as we discussed briefly, that before the trilateral, there's supposed to be a meeting
07:47between just Putin and Zelensky. Should Ukrainians be getting bombed in their homes while that meeting
07:54is taking place? Is that conducive for some kind of agreement? If there were conditions of ceasefire,
08:00wouldn't that be better? But President Trump has moved on from that. The Europeans are not pushing
08:08for that aggressively, at least. So it's very hard to see how we get back to that idea that we want a
08:17peacefire rather than trying to go straightaway to some kind of comprehensive deal or agreement
08:25between Ukraine and Russia at a time when Russia continues to attack. Now, Ukraine is hitting back
08:32as best they can. I think as long as there is a war going on, I would certainly urge President Trump
08:39to supply all the weaponry that Ukraine needs. The way to do that, of course, the way he has wanted to do
08:46that and should do that is by selling the weaponry to NATO members, to Britain, to France, to Germany,
08:53and let them transfer them to the European nation that needs them, which is Ukraine. That's the way
09:01to do it. And if you do that, if you send long-range missiles, for example, and you don't have the
09:06restrictions Biden had about targeting inside Russia, then I think it's absolutely possible
09:13for Zelensky, for the Ukrainians to put a lot of additional pressure on Putin and on Russia.
09:19I also think sanctions should not be at all removed. They haven't been so far. I think they
09:25should be increased to put more pressure on Putin because the truth of the matter is his economy is
09:31not in good shape. It's not healthy. And he is getting hit militarily, including his energy
09:40infrastructure. It's been done with drones, not with missiles. That's harder to do. But Zelensky,
09:46the Ukrainians have done it. So while I prefer to see a ceasefire, I think President Trump would
09:52like to see a ceasefire. If for no other reason, then people stop getting killed every day. Right now,
09:59that doesn't appear to be in the cards.
10:02And I know that there's so many details that need to be hammered out. But let's say Zelensky and Putin
10:07do meet face to face, which that would be, I mean, just a sight. But who wants more land from Ukraine,
10:14right? Zelensky, that's a non-starter for Zelensky. He does not want to give land to Russia. I mean,
10:20seems like they're a stalemate. What would be beneficial in that meeting?
10:25Yeah, hard to say. Hard for him to give land away. Hard for him to do it under the Constitution. On the
10:30other hand, and President Trump has made this case, there is what is de facto and what is de
10:37yore. What I mean by that de facto is what are the facts on the ground? De yore means what's legal. So
10:43for example, Crimea was taken illegally, occupied, annexed in 2014 by Putin. Unlikely that that's going
10:54to come back anytime soon. Any land, any territory that Putin's forces now occupy, I don't see them
11:01giving that up. That's just realistic. They don't, doesn't have to be recognized as legal. Doesn't
11:06have to, no one has to say, of course, you deserve that. But you could say, okay, leave it in place.
11:12That's what's called a frozen conflict. It's a, it's a, it's a way of, of, if you could leave it
11:19that way and, and, and end the fighting, that's still an accomplishment, I think, especially since
11:27if you, if you did that, if you froze the conflict along what's called the lines of contact, then
11:33Ukraine remains very much an independent, sovereign, free nation, which is what Putin doesn't want. And
11:41we've discussed this, Brittany. He doesn't want it for two reasons. One is he thinks it's imperative
11:45that he drags Ukraine back into the Russian slash Soviet empire. And two, because Putin does not
11:53want, as a next door neighbor, a free and democratic country. It's a bad example, he thinks, for his,
12:00for his, for his, his subjects. Who's the winner in those negotiations then? Let's say that's what it
12:07looks like. Concessions were made on Ukraine's part, which let's remember, this was unprovoked. Russia
12:13attacked Ukraine over three years ago. It was unprovoked. Russia gets Crimea. Ukraine can't
12:19join NATO. There are security guarantees that have yet to be seen. I mean, who's the winner in this?
12:25Well, it's not over yet. So we can't, we can't entirely say you can't, I mean, I can't argue
12:31with the fact that Putin ended up very well coming out of Alaska. He gave up nothing. He didn't concede
12:38to Trump what Trump wanted, which was the ceasefire. He persuaded Trump that no, no, no, let's go for
12:46the, for a whole, for, for a comprehensive peace deal. That's what we want. I want peace. You know,
12:52I want peace. Donald, do you want peace? Maybe Zelensky wants peace. Let's go for that. We can do
12:57it. It's a little more work, but let's not settle for just a ceasefire because ceasefires come and they
13:03go and it'll be, it'll be messy. So he did very, he did very well. He had the red carpet under his
13:09feet. By the way, to be, to be fair also, a B-2 stealth bomber flew over his head and he knew what
13:15that meant. He doesn't have any strategic aircraft like the B-2 and he knows the B-2 was used by
13:22President Trump to bomb and substantially destroy the nuclear facilities of the Islamic Republic of
13:32Iran at Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. Very, very important. And keep in mind that Putin is a close
13:41ally of the regime in Tehran. They just recently signed, I think in January, a 20 year strategic
13:48treaty for cooperation in military, economic and intelligence areas. And by the way, both of them
13:56are also closely aligned with the strongest communist party in history in Beijing and what
14:02I would call the craziest communist party in history, which is in North Korea. So this is an
14:08axis of aggressors that is anti-American. But President Trump did make an important point by
14:14having that B-2 bomber fly overhead. Then comes the Monday meeting. And again, Zelensky did
14:21very well. He wore a suit. They laughed together. There was a letter, as you know, from Melania
14:32to Putin. And then Zelensky's wife had a letter to Melania. Oh, it went very well this time. And
14:39I know that the Ukrainians left the meeting feeling much better, feeling good about the
14:44possibility of a security guarantee, feeling much better about where they were. But again,
14:52I don't think you can declare a winner or a loser entirely yet. And listen, in a way, Putin
14:57has lost a lot. Let me tell you why he's lost a lot. He hates NATO. Not that NATO ever threatened
15:02him. NATO is a defensive alliance, but he hates it. He doesn't want to see Western-oriented countries
15:07anywhere near his borders. And what's happened since? Well, Finland, which he also tried,
15:13just like with Ukraine, he tried to pull, or I should say, in 1939, Stalin waged a war to try to
15:19take over Finland. He didn't succeed. He ended up with about 10% of Finland's territory. Finland's now
15:26a member of NATO. Sweden's now a member of NATO. What you saw at the White House, where you saw the
15:31president of France, the prime minister of Britain, you saw leaders from Finland, from Italy, all
15:38together, all on the same page, all with Trump, showing Atlantic unity. That is the last thing
15:45that President Putin wanted to see or wanted to catalyze, wanted to bring about. And he did. So in a
15:52lot of ways, he has lost. And his economy, again, is in very bad shape. His military is in very bad
15:58shape. The Ukrainians have diminished his military capabilities, usually, over the past few years.
16:04They've done so by testing American weapons and showing that American weapons are superior. And in
16:10a way, they've been doing us a great favor. The other favor they did for us is they gave us a wake-up
16:15call that our defense industrial base, where we build the weapons we need, that others may need
16:21from us, is totally inadequate. But we're beginning to build back. And as part of supplying Ukraine
16:29with our weapons, that will help build our defense industrial base. Because what a defense industrial
16:34base needs is customers and orders over the long term. So a lot of things have not gone well for Putin.
16:43I think you brought up a really great point, which is the meeting between Putin and Trump is on Friday.
16:48That spurs the larger meeting on Monday with Trump Zelensky and a whole host of European leaders.
16:56If I'm Putin, what am I thinking on Monday seeing all of that?
17:01If he's honest with himself, he's very angry. Because what does he want to do to do for years?
17:06Split America from Europe. And he was doing that rather well for a very long time.
17:13How is he doing that? Europeans were spending nothing on defense.
17:16Europeans were buying huge amounts of Russian energy. They were doing it through something
17:22called the Nord Stream pipeline going right into Germany. I remember having a discussion some years
17:28ago with a senior German diplomat basically saying, maybe more tactfully than this,
17:33what are you guys thinking? You are getting dependent on Russian energy. That's crazy. Oh no,
17:40Cliff, he said to me. It's Putin who's getting dependent on our euros. He wants our money. It's all
17:46good. No, it turns out it was not good. And so when Putin sees the Atlantic Alliance revived,
17:55NATO expanded, thanks to him. If he's honest with himself, he's got to say, okay, this didn't work
18:02out quite the way I intended. And I'm curious what you're looking out for next. I know President Trump
18:08said there needs to be a bilateral meeting between Zelensky and Putin before the trilateral meeting,
18:13where he injects himself. I mean, if you told me this a week ago that the next step is going to be
18:19a bilat between Zelensky and Putin, I would say, did hell freeze over? Are we seeing pigs fly? I mean,
18:24it just, I can't even imagine it. What's the likelihood of that happening?
18:28It still strikes me like pigs flying. Again, imagine Zelensky and Putin in one room. I mean,
18:38will it result in fisticuffs? It could. Putin is said to be a judo expert. Who knows? Who else is
18:46going to be allowed at that meeting? Where will that meeting take place? Maybe Istanbul? I don't know.
18:52It's very hard for me to imagine that meeting going well. I could imagine it doesn't come off and they
18:59go right to the trilateral. Maybe that's another possibility. But if there is going to be a meeting
19:04between Putin and Zelensky, I'd sure like to be a fly on the wall. One thing I wonder, will they speak
19:11in Russian or will Zelensky insist on speaking in Ukrainian with a translator? That'll be interesting to
19:17see. I mean, there's so much to look out for. And per usual, I always appreciate you breaking it down,
19:23making sense of the moment. Cliff May, thank you so much for joining me. You're welcome back anytime.
19:29Thanks, Brittany. Always a pleasure to see you.
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