Week Ahead 18/08/2025 – Cooler nights later this week - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the forecast for the week ahead 18/08/2025 presented by Aidan McGivern. High pressure returns this week - keeping it mostly dry but without the heatwave this time. In fact, by night at least, it will turn cooler later this week.

Transcript

00:00Hi there and welcome to the week ahead forecast from the Met Office.

00:03Just like so often through the spring and summer, high pressure is returning this week.

00:08But it's not going to bring a heat wave because it's located in a slightly different place.

00:12It's located to the north of Scotland, acting like a boulder in a stream.

00:16It's redirecting the jet stream, one branch pushing well to the north into the Arctic Circle,

00:21another branch pushing to the south and scooping up an area of low pressure.

00:25And that's why we are expecting one or two showers towards the south west on Monday night into Tuesday.

00:31But otherwise, with that high pressure dominant, it's going to be a predominantly dry week ahead.

00:36But as I say, not a heat wave because it's going to be bringing cooler air from the east and northeast,

00:40along with a lot of cloud will wake up to cloudy skies by and large across the UK on Tuesday morning,

00:46especially for central and eastern parts of the country.

00:48Some drizzle for northeast England and northeast Scotland as those easterly and northeast winds bring moisture from the North Sea.

00:57But the low cloud will be stubborn to clear.

00:59It's going to stick around for parts of eastern and northeastern UK for much of the day,

01:04perhaps breaking in places through the Midlands, the south across Wales and Northern Ireland to give some brightest bells,

01:09the best of the sunshine towards west and northwest Scotland.

01:12There will be some brightest bells towards the southwest as well.

01:15But here, because of that low pressure I mentioned, there will be one or two showers,

01:19especially for the far west of Cornwall, Isles of Scilly, perhaps some rumbles of thunder as well.

01:24Most likely staying offshore, but you never know.

01:27Now, temperatures responding well to the sunshine in the south and the west up into the low or even mid-20s.

01:34But where we've got that cool breeze from the North Sea and the thick cloud,

01:38it's going to feel notably on the cool side, mid to high teens more likely.

01:43And in fact, it's going to get cooler through the week ahead because of this cold front shifting south.

01:48One thing it will do, though, is nudge the low pressure further south.

01:51So the showers across the southwest tending to disappear into Wednesday and high pressure building in from the north more widely.

01:59So as a result, as that cold front clears, we are going to see the cloud breaking up a bit more,

02:05perhaps brighter skies for much of northern and eastern UK.

02:08As the day progresses on Wednesday, sunnier skies arriving.

02:13Initially cloudy skies for the south and southwest, but even that disappears later on.

02:19So a sunnier afternoon, I think, for many, but not necessarily warmer because of that cooler airflow

02:25and the cold front bringing lower dew points, lower humidities.

02:29And so I expect it's going to be low 20s, high teens for most across the country.

02:35Then into Thursday morning, a bit of a cool start to the day, but we begin the day with plenty of bright skies and most places dry.

02:43Again, one or two light showers across the far northeast of Scotland.

02:47Mid-teens here, high teens down the North Sea coast, low 20s across some southern parts.

02:53So, yes, whilst we've got high pressure, whilst we do have some reasonably strong sunshine and still those UV levels relatively high,

03:01even if it's not feeling as hot as it has done at times this summer, it is going to be cool for many,

03:08certainly compared to a lot of the hot spells that we've experienced.

03:12High pressure then widely on Friday.

03:15And with this opening out across the country, I think there'll be fewer isobars and lighter winds.

03:21As a result, that means that Thursday nights are colder nights compared with previous nights.

03:26We'll start the day on Friday with temperatures in main urban areas at 10 or 11 Celsius.

03:33But in the countryside, more like mid to high single figures and in some shelter spots,

03:38Highland Scotland, for example, or perhaps parts of northern England,

03:41we'll see temperatures dipping into the low single figures.

03:45So actually quite chilly in one or two places first thing Friday.

03:49And certainly a more comfortable night for sleeping than we've become used to through the summer.

03:53We'll have lost that mugginess.

03:55But actually Friday, it will warm up through the day because of the light winds, because of the sunny spells,

04:00not widespread sunshine.

04:01There'll be areas of cloud around, but pleasant enough.

04:04It's dry, light winds.

04:05Wherever we get that sunshine, temperatures up to 23 or 24 Celsius.

04:10Then we keep that high as we start the bank holiday weekend.

04:13Not a bank holiday, obviously, for everyone.

04:15But it will be for many parts of the UK and that high pressure bringing largely settled and fine weather

04:21to begin things on Saturday and most likely into Sunday as well.

04:25Again, with the jet stream diverted well to the north.

04:28Now, there are some areas of low pressure around the Atlantic, quite weak affairs,

04:32that they could fringe upon western parts of the UK during the second half of the bank holiday weekend

04:36to bring some showers.

04:38But they'll tend to fizzle away as they approach and eventually become perhaps subsumed by another low.

04:46And this is a feature we've been watching for a few days now.

04:49It's of interest for the developments into next week.

04:54And it is Hurricane Erin at the time of recording, a major hurricane, a Category 3.

04:59It actually explosively deepened during the weekend in just 24 hours from a tropical storm

05:04to a Cat 5 monster and it's going to bring some strong winds to the Caribbean through the next few days.

05:11But luckily, it's not going to make direct landfall anywhere.

05:15And then it moves into the North Atlantic and transitions into a typical mid-latitude low during the weekend.

05:23This is the point at which it starts to be picked up by the jet stream.

05:26But it's always uncertain when these ex-hurricanes are picked up by the jet stream.

05:30They're full of energy.

05:32And where exactly they end up then, well, we're talking about a week in advance.

05:37That's certainly subject to uncertainty.

05:40And this shows the track from ex-hurricane Erin.

05:44The multiple tracks from multiple different computer models, one or two, push it well to the south.

05:49But most of them take it on this kind of track into the North Atlantic before eventually pushing it further east.

05:57A few take it towards the Azores, but the majority take it somewhere to the northwest of Scotland.

06:04And we're talking about perhaps next Tuesday, Wednesday.

06:07So it's a long way off.

06:08A lot to be determined between now and then about the behaviour of this hurricane.

06:12And then ex-hurricaneers get picked up by the jet stream.

06:15And it's not going to hit the UK as a hurricane, but as a mid-latitude low if it does hit the UK.

06:22Either way, it's likely to inject some uncertainty into the forecast for next week after the bank holiday weekend.

06:29And may well mix things up for the final week of August.

06:34Perhaps introducing some more unsettled weather.

06:36But like I say, it's a long way off.

06:38I'm going to be covering it in more detail in Tuesday's Deep Dive, which you can find on the Met Office YouTube channel.

06:43Join me for that, but for now, bye-bye.

Week Ahead 18/08/2025 – Cooler nights later this week

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