- 5 months ago
Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00But Aaron Schatz knows a thing or two about fantasy because he's all over FTN Fantasy.
00:07Also, NFL analyst for ESPN was part of a panel earlier this week that was taking a look at the,
00:15I guess you could call it, short-term future for each NFL team.
00:19Not just this year, but over the next three years based on the players they have,
00:24the cap situation, what's coming up, etc., etc.
00:27And the Niners did come in the top ten.
00:31I think eight, actually, is where the guys had it.
00:33Louis Riddick was a part of this as well.
00:35So he joins us now on the River Islands guest line, Aaron Schatz.
00:38Aaron, what's going on? Thanks for doing it.
00:41Hey, no problem, guys. Thanks for having me on the show.
00:43Yeah, absolutely. So how would you lay that out?
00:47Why is the Niners' short-term three-year future somewhat rosy and optimistic in your mind?
00:55Coaching, coaching, coaching.
00:59We rated each team in four categories.
01:02Quarterback, rest of the roster, coaching, and front office.
01:07And the place where the 49ers really stand out is coaching
01:09because of Kyle Shanahan's ability to turn average quarterbacks into great quarterbacks
01:16and constantly run a good offense when his team is not leading the league in injuries.
01:20So I think that was the big reason why the 49ers.
01:24I think if we had only looked at the other three categories,
01:27I think they would have ended up like 13th or 14th or something.
01:30But the coaching really lifted them up.
01:33And what else about the coaching?
01:34Is it also the staff that he has and the coordinator?
01:37Or is it as simple as what he does with that beautiful laminated play sheet?
01:41Yeah, I mean, you know, no disrespect to the defensive staff,
01:46but I think it's really about Kyle himself and what he does with that play sheet.
01:50And what he does not with the play sheet, but in camp and in practice during the week
01:55to get his guys ready.
01:57It's not just about the plays he calls during the game.
02:00It's how he gets these quarterbacks ready so that he can make Jimmy Garoppolo good
02:05and Brock Purdy great.
02:06So, Aaron, it's interesting when you said kind of the rest of what's going on
02:12was maybe a middle-of-the-pack type team, but coaching elevates them.
02:16So let me flip it and look at it from the other perspective.
02:19What are the concerns just based on the roster that you see right now?
02:25A few positions where you're either, you feel like there's weakness
02:29or the players are older, right?
02:32It's not the youngest roster in the league.
02:34They have some age, left tackle, obviously.
02:37There's, you know, Trent Williams is not going to be playing there
02:39for the next three years.
02:42And the front office-wise, you know, they haven't had the best drafting record.
02:48And Purdy is very good, but he's not great.
02:52I think he's, you know, getting paid commensurate for what he is,
02:55which is kind of a Tier 2 quarterback who is much better than his draft status,
02:59but not as good as his actual efficiency numbers.
03:03And what about the rest of the roster, especially the younger players that we see?
03:08This year, the drafted class from last year, they made a big impact.
03:11And even a couple years ago, you're now getting D winners and others to step in.
03:16How does the rest of the roster stack up for you guys?
03:19Yeah, I think the problem is just that certain stars,
03:22if you look at the stars on the roster,
03:24you have some young players that are really coming into their own
03:27and that you have a lot of belief that they have promise, you know,
03:31like Michael Williams and everything.
03:32But when you talk about who are the best players on the 49ers,
03:36Fred Warner, older.
03:38Trent Williams, much older.
03:40George Kittle, older.
03:42Like the stars of this team, McCaffrey for a running back, older.
03:45The stars of this team are generally players in their late 20s,
03:49into their 30s, up to where Trent Williams is.
03:52Aaron Schatz with us, ESPN NFL analyst Willard and Dibbs, 95-7 the game.
03:59So when you look, let's just have some fun about this year for a second.
04:02When you look at some of those aging players
04:05and then question marks with some of the younger players,
04:09but then run that up against the point that everyone sort of makes
04:12about the schedule being quote-unquote easy,
04:15where does that put your optimism or pessimism for this year?
04:19Love the 49ers this year.
04:20I really do.
04:21The fact is, when they're not among the most injured teams in the league,
04:25Kyle Shanahan always runs a great offense.
04:28If you just look at, you know, all of the things being equal,
04:31the Shanahan-McVay offenses are just better.
04:35And so, you know, I think their defense can be average, right?
04:39I know there's questions in the secondary and questions at defensive tackle,
04:42but there's also talent with Bosa and Warner and certain things
04:46that they do really well.
04:47And then that offense is going to be good because his offenses are always good
04:51unless they're just racked by injury.
04:54And the schedule is really easy.
04:57Yeah.
04:57Even this offense, Aaron,
04:59when you look at Brandon Ayuk out until maybe November
05:02and Juwan Jennings with a calf and a contract
05:04and Ricky Pearsall trying to step up into that role,
05:07do you have any concerns about the receiving core
05:10as it pertains to the Shanahan offense?
05:12Oh, sure.
05:13Absolutely.
05:14You want to see Jennings be healthy
05:15and you want to see Pearsall step up.
05:18And, you know, Demarcus Robinson,
05:19they believe that they can get a certain amount out of him,
05:22but he's never been a star player or anything like that.
05:25And, you know, if Ayuk is back in October,
05:28that's better than if Ayuk is back in November.
05:31But the quarterback is there who knows how to run this offense.
05:34The tight end is still one of the two or three best in the league.
05:37The running back, if he's healthy, should be excellent.
05:40The offensive line is, I mean, you know, the question's about McKibbin,
05:43but for the most part, like, the offensive line is good.
05:46So they're in a good place.
05:48Aaron, so I get it.
05:50Your group, when you look at the 49ers over the next three years,
05:53you kind of like them.
05:55Who did you love?
05:56Who was up at the top of everybody's list?
05:59The Eagles.
06:00Not only do the Eagles have maybe the best front office in the game
06:05with a good coaching, a good quarterback,
06:09their defense, everyone on their defense other than Zach Vaughn is under 26.
06:13It's kind of crazy how young their defense is.
06:16We don't know if it'll be as good as last year
06:18because guys like Mauro or Jomo have to step up.
06:22But that's a team that's younger than you think they are.
06:25The Ravens also with a great front office, great coaching staff,
06:28great quarterback.
06:29Great roster overall.
06:32They're very set for the next two years.
06:34Is it safe to say that the Niners are the highest on your list in the NFC West,
06:39especially considering the Matthew Stafford back situation?
06:42Yeah, I think if I'm remembering to our list,
06:46they are the highest of the four teams in the NFC West.
06:49Yes.
06:50And I know that when it comes to just this year,
06:53this year I have them projected as my favorites in the NFC West.
06:57Okay.
06:58Like that.
06:59Can we flip to the other side?
07:00Who over the next three years is up a creek?
07:06Well, you know, the Seahawks, a lot of people believe in the young defense.
07:12McDonald is there.
07:13But we don't really know what the quarterback situation is,
07:16if Darnold can really be good outside of the Minnesota system.
07:21So I think they're probably at the bottom of the four NFC West teams.
07:26Because with the Rams, yeah, they're going to need a new quarterback
07:29because Stafford is old and has the back issues.
07:31But just like with Kyle Shanahan, McVay,
07:36there's a lot of belief in him as a head coach.
07:39Yeah, he's been fantastic.
07:40And he's created great results down there.
07:43Aaron Schatz joining us here, 95.7 The Game.
07:45I want to ask you about DVOA.
07:47And, you know, I'm still trying to get into these advanced analytics.
07:51And this is actually something that you created.
07:53First of all, how did you come about to creating this?
07:57And can you just explain to me and the listeners what DVOA means
08:00and why it's so important?
08:02Okay, short version is it measures the success of every play
08:06based on the down and distance
08:08and compares it to a league average
08:11that is adjusted for situation and opponent.
08:14And the reason why it's useful is that it measures every play
08:17so you can look at it situationally,
08:20but it's also tweaked to be as predictive as possible.
08:23So certain things are less important because they're less consistent.
08:28And how did I create it?
08:29I created some ideas from a book called The Hidden Game of Football
08:32and then played around with numbers a little bit
08:34and had a week off between Christmas and New Year's one year at my job.
08:39It kind of went nuts.
08:41I love it.
08:42It's awesome.
08:43I love it.
08:43And, Aaron, would you take us back to last year
08:47and take a look at the 49ers?
08:49Because I think, and this is fair, you know where a fan's brain goes.
08:53You were 6-11, everything stunk.
08:55But I don't necessarily think that your numbers would suggest that with the 49ers.
09:03I think it was probably more focused on especially run defense.
09:08But, like, what story does the DVOA say about last year's Niners?
09:15They had the best DVOA of any team with 11 losses ever.
09:24Okay.
09:25It's kind of like winning an ugly contest.
09:27Yeah.
09:28You don't hang a banner about that because it's sort of like you won the ugly contest.
09:32But you did.
09:33You won the ugly contest, which means it's not like you're coming from 25th.
09:38It's not like last year we were 25th, but this year we'll be healthier.
09:41It's last year we were 14th, and this year we'll be healthier.
09:47So you're already starting at above average as far as the underlying statistics
09:52below that 6-11 record.
09:55And then you add in better health and the easy schedule,
09:59and things should be much better than they were last year.
10:01By the way, when you say they were 14th in DVOA,
10:04is that a blend of offense and defense?
10:07Yeah, that would include offense, defense, and special teams.
10:10Okay, where were they if you break them apart?
10:12Where were they in offensive DVOA?
10:14Do you have that?
10:16I don't have it right in front of me right now.
10:18They were higher on offense than they were on defense.
10:21They were top 10 overall until the last couple of games of the season.
10:25And then at a certain point, they just lost too many guys by the end.
10:29Yeah, I'm looking at ftnfantasy.com, and if you value these numbers like I do,
10:35you need to sign up because he'll give you the total,
10:38but the offense, defense, the special teams, you're going to have to pay for that now,
10:42aren't you, Aaron?
10:44Yeah, it requires a subscription, but the subscriptions are very reasonable.
10:48And you can also get all of last year's numbers along with this year's projections
10:52in the book, the preseason book, the FTN Football Almanac,
10:56which you can get at ftnfantasy.com slash almanac.
11:00That's such a seamless plug, and I didn't mean to set you up for that,
11:03but I quietly...
11:04The 49ers.
11:06The 49ers are the sample chapter, so actually you can read the 49ers for free.
11:10Ooh, there you have it.
11:11I like that.
11:12And I love these numbers.
11:14Aaron, what would you do if you had the first pick in a fantasy draft?
11:18Probably Jamar Chase.
11:21It depends on the rules of your league,
11:23but I think that the difference between Jamar Chase
11:26and a baseline wide receiver at this point is bigger
11:29than the difference between Bajon Robinson or Saquon Barkley
11:32and a baseline running back.
11:34So in most leagues, I would take Jamar Chase with the first pick.
11:37Aaron, really, really fun to have you on.
11:39Thank you so much for doing it.
11:42Hey, thanks for having me on, guys.
11:43Again, ftnfantasy.com slash almanac, and you are lucky.
11:47That's a San Francisco chapter is the sample.
11:50Unbelievable.
11:50I love it.
11:50On the house.
11:51I mean, just...
11:52Shots is a giver.
Be the first to comment